1. Biography for William Swan
Chief Economist, Seabury-Airline Planning Group. AGIFORS Senior Fellow. ATRG Senior Fellow. Retired Chief Economist for Boeing Commercial Aircraft Previous to Boeing, worked at American Airlines in Operations Research and Strategic Planning and United Airlines in Research and Development. Areas of work included Yield Management, Fleet Planning, Aircraft Routing, and Crew Scheduling. Also worked for Hull Trading, a major market maker in stock index options, and on the staff at MIT’s Flight Transportation Lab. Education: Master’s, Engineer’s Degree, and Ph. D. at MIT. Bachelor of Science in Aeronautical Engineering at Princeton. Likes dogs and dark beer.
I am an economist. Everyone thinks an economist can predict the stock market. If I could do that I would be so rich I could own Boeing Aircraft Company. Instead, it is the other way around.
Scott Adams

2. RJs – Smaller than You Think
A Review of the Evidence:
RJs are eroding 100-seat market
Small plane market growing slowly

3. RJ Share is Exaggerated
Share of added airplanes* = 38%
Share of scheduled departures = 16%
Share of scheduled airplanes = 14%
Share of seat departures = 7%
Share of seats = 5%
Share of ASK = 3%
*airplane count from scheduled departures and miles. Added 2003 to 2004.

4. Macro View: Below 120-seats is Small

5. ASKs Below 120 seats Growing Slowly (1.3% since 1991)

6. New RJs Retiring Props, Old RJs, & 100-seats

7. 6-8% of ASKs not Boeing or Airbus

8. Asia Not Featuring RJs: Too Poor & Too Far

9. Europe Favoring 100-seat Jets

10. N. America is King of the New RJ

11. Other Regionals are Similar to Asia

12. New RJs Since 1995 Market for <120-seats growing at 1.3%/year
Compared to 4.6% for total ASKs
New RJs have grown to 28% of these ASKs
Old RJs are still 9%, from 8% in 1995
Props are still 13%, from 18% in 1995
Jet-100s ( seats) are still 51%
Down from 73% in 1995
Most of this is in North America
Where Union Pilot Contracts favor RJs
Still room to grow within this market