1. WHAT IS PUBLIC OPINION? DEFINITIONS
Public opinion is the distribution of individual preferences for or evaluations of a given issue, candidate, or institution within a specific population
Distribution means the proportion of the population that holds one opinion or viewpoint as compared to those with opposing opinions or those with no opinion at all
Individual preference means that when we measure public opinion, we are asking individuals about their opinions 6

2. UNDERSTANDING PUBLIC OPINION
Most of the American public shows little awareness and interest in politics.
Surveys show substantial lack of political knowledge on part of public:
Identifying political figures
Identifying key issues

3. WHO ARE THE “PUBLIC” IN PUBLIC OPINION POLLS??
VARYING LEVELS OF INTEREST IN POLITICS
ELITES
Those w/disproportionate amounts of political resources
Raise issues and help set national agenda
Influence the resolution of issues
ATTENTIVE PUBLIC
Those with an active interest in gov’t and politics - 25 percent of the American public (better educated)
MASSES
Those with little interest in gov’t and politics
Nonvoters - 35 percent of the American public (subset "political know-nothings") 8

4. AWARENESS AND INTEREST
Political efficacy - belief that one can make a difference in politics by expressing an opinion and acting politically
Internal efficacy - the belief that one can understand politics and therefore participate in politics (such as voting)
External efficacy - the belief that one is effective in making a difference when participating in politics, for example that the government will respond to one's demands 9

5. MEASUREMENT OF PUBLIC OPINION
By elections: deceiving – does not tell us WHY people voted as they
did (and only voters participate)
By straw polls – no use of sampling makes them NOT accurate
By scientific polls
Most accurate
Through random means: where each person in universe has an equal chance of being selected (most important for getting an accurate measure of public opinion)
Can reduce margin of error by adding more respondents, but at
some point diminishing returns set in
Questions must avoid a bias 11

6. WHAT IS POLLING?
Polling is a means to assess public opinion on issues or a candidate
George Gallup is the Founding Father of modern day polling = Gallup Polls

7. HOW IS A SCIENTIFIC POLL CREATED?
Define the “universe” (the population to be measured)
National polls typically require respondents.
Sampling error: The margin of error is expressed in +/- terms.
Can reduce sampling error by adding more respondents
Creating an Accurate Poll
You must have:
Carefully Worded Questions
No bias and clearly differentiated alternatives
A poll that actually seeks the truth
Not “Advocacy” and “Push Polls” which try to influence the outcome
Look for reliable pollsters - not party polls
Remember…
Polls are just a snapshot and may be wrong!!!

8. THE WAY YOU ASK THE QUESTION MATTERS
The way you ask a polling question can make a lot of difference in the way people answer it. In 2012, President Barack Obama stated that he believed same-sex couples should be allowed to marry. Following the controversial statement, several sources collected information on public opinion of gay marriage and President Obama’s statement. However, different sources asked slightly different questions, which led to different interpretations of public opinion of gay marriage.
Consider the following questions about gay marriage, each of which was asked between March and May, Read each question and consider how you would have responded if asked by an interviewer. 14

9. WHAT TYPES OF POLLS EXIST?
Opinion poll
Interviews or surveys with samples of citizens that are used to estimate the feelings and beliefs of the entire population.
Benchmark (tracking) poll
Researchers ask people the same or similar questions over time to “track” the path of public opinion.
Entrance/exit polls
They are conducted outside of polling places on Election Day to predict the outcome of an election. 15

10. EXIT POLLS Poll taken immediately after voters have exited the polling stations. An exit poll asks whom the voters actually voted for.

11. USES AND ABUSES OF POLLS
Uses of polls (remember - polls are a snapshot of opinion a point in time)
Informing the public
Informing candidates
Informing office-holders
Making election night projections through the use of exit polls
Abuses of polls
“Horse race” mentality emphasized during campaigns at expense of issues.
No real story…just what the polls say
In a horse race world, horse race polls can tell you who’s ahead but not why.
These polls pander to candidates and office-holders.
Early projections from exit polls may discourage voter turnout, esp. in West 17

12. 1948 Election “Dewey Defeats Truman”
HAVE POLLS BEEN WRONG?
1948 Election “Dewey Defeats Truman”

13. ARE PUBLIC OPINIONS POLLS POSITIVE FOR SOCIETY?
Yes No
Contributes to the democratic process by providing a way for the public to express its views.
Polls can also be used to
manipulate public opinion.
Just because something is
popular doesn’t make it right.
Enables political leaders to understand and implement public preferences on key issues.
Bradley Effect  Voters intend to vote for a white candidate would nonetheless tell pollsters they are undecided or likely to vote for the non-white candidate
Bandwagon Effect

14. Bradley Effect - if answers would reveal socially undesirable trait/opinion, respondents might lie.
Did you vote?
Questions that would reveal racism, sexism, homophobia.
Bandwagon Effect - respondents might want to please the pollster, tell them what they think they want to hear. Or the respondent may want to feel that they are with the in- crowd, especially relevant with exit polls.

15. HOW MIGHT POLITICIANS USE POLLING DATA?
Collecting information on how to conduct their campaign
Collecting information to shape policy
Promoting themselves to the public (platform formation)
Conducting opposition research
Collecting information to inform votes on bills/actions
Gaining support from donors

16. WHEN DO POLITICIANS IGNORE PUBLIC OPINION?
Think of themselves as trustees, not delegates
Loyalty to particular interest groups (e.g., large donors)
Not worried about reelection
Principle (stop laughing)
Believe that public opinion will change