1. The ‘Accidental Middlemen’
Nuclear Umbrella States and the Humanitarian Initiative

2. From The Humanitarian Initiative...
Humanitarian initiative born around 2012.
Focus on humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons.
Take control of conversation
Improve awareness/planning
Delegitimize, stigmatize
Put pressure on NWS
Driven by a few:
Norway,
Austria,
Mexico,
Civil society

3. 115 - 150 ... To A Nuclear Ban Austrian Pledge  Humanitarian Pledge
127 signatories
Open-ended working group on nuclear disarmament
Final Report August 2016:
“A majority of States expressed support for the commencement of negotiations in the General Assembly On a legally-binding instrument to prohibit nuclear weapons”
Predicting support:
Countries part of NWFZ (ex. Australia)
EU split (Austria and Ireland pro ban)
NAM split? (US allies)

4. Nuclear Umbrella States
Who?
NATO states
Japan
South Korea
Australia
Against a ban, but with some difficulty
Between disarmament and deterrence
Public attention, active domestic debate over merits of deterrence
Caught in the crossfire?
Role played so far
Took part in humanitarian impact discourse
Participated in Open-Ended Working Group

5. Nuclear Umbrella States Germany, statement at the Mexico Conference
Everything should be done to further strengthen the “nuclear taboo”
As important as the humanitarian dimension is there is also a security dimension to nuclear weapons. Pressing forward without the Nuclear Weapon States today is not the best strategy for tangible progress

6. Nuclear Umbrella States
Norway, explaining its abstention to Humanitarian Pledge
The humanitarian initiative has now been undermined, and the initiative is by many associated with efforts to achieve a legal instrument banning nuclear weapons.
Norway is not able to support resolutions that we and our NATO allies see as part of a package resulting in a further polarisation of the international community.

7. Nuclear Umbrella States
Australia, forcing a vote in the Open-Ended Working Group
A simple Ban Treaty would not facilitate the reduction in one nuclear weapon.
It might even harden the resolve of those possessing nuclear weapons not to reduce their arsenals

8. Japan
“Nuclear disarmament must be promoted based on two basic understandings, the first being a clear understanding of the humanitarian impacts”
Survivors of the 1945 nuclear bombings
Plays an active role in disarmament efforts
Domestic politics
“and the second being the objective assessment of the reality of the security environment”
Subscribes to logic of deterrence
US nuclear umbrella
Reality of regional security concerns

9. The Ban Treaty Negotiations
Should they participate?
Probably...
Ban is black and white issue
Umbrella states would likely represent P5
Different objectives going into negotiations

10. The Ban Treaty Negotiations
Yes
How?
Bridge-builder or break?
Support the process to push for a simpler treaty?
Negotiating format

11. The Ban Treaty NegotiationsNo
Consequences
Two groups of states will emerge
Ban could dissipate ...
...Or propel out of control

12. The Role of an Accidental Middleman
“A person who helps two people or groups to deal with and communicate with each other when they are not able or willing to do it themselves”

13. The Role of an Accidental Middleman
Thank You