1. John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP
Inland Empire Forecast . . .
John Husing, Ph.D.
Economics & Politics, Inc.
Chief Economist, IEEP

2. U.S. Jobs Still Setting Records

3. Add Potential Workers: Given Up Or Part Time
17.9%
Add Potential Workers: Given Up Or Part Time
10.1%
7.5%
3.9%

4. Inflation Worry
3.6%
1.9%

5. 2 Short Term Rate Increases
Interest Rates:
2 Short Term Rate Increases
4.48%
2.69%

6. Yield Curve: Potential Recession Predictor
Recession: Likelihood Rising
2 Year to 10 Year
0.18%

7. California Job Gains/Losses

8. Inland Empire Population
Greater Than 25 of 50 States

9. Population Forecast,
2045: 6,119,497
1,111,783

10. Median Household Income

11. Median Household Income, 2017 Deducting Housing Costs Above IE

12. Inland Empire’s Powerful Job Growth!
Percent 2018e above 2007
I.E CA US
15.8% v. 11.0% v. 8.6%
Confession
Forecast: 45,000 jobs 3.1% % Unemployment
Actual: ,110 Jobs 3.1% % Unemployment

13. Job Quality

14. Job Growth by Region
2nd Largest 2018 Absolute Job Gain in So. CA!

15. Local Job Growth,2018

16. Unemployment Rates
3.9%
3.5%

17. Poverty Falling With Job Creation
23.5%
16.4%

18. Educational Challenge
46.3%
29.2%

19. Payroll Headed for the Moon

20. $ Payroll Spent
$ Payroll Spent
Moon Mining Corp.
$ Payroll Paid

21. Health Care Job Growth Strongest High Paying Sector 2011-2018
9.6% of Job Growth

22. Median Health Care Pay: 2018
$62,363

23. ACA Impact
Health Care Demand & Quality of Life
-60% Drop in Uninsured

24. Residents Per Health Care Worker
+26.0% More People
33.5
26.6
Sources: Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit; CA Employment Development Department

25. 2018 Forecast: ACA Unknowns
2019 Prospect: Slightly Stronger

26. Logistics Job Growth
Without Logistics growth, IE would still be in Recession
23.6% of Job Growth

27. Median Logistics Pay: 2018
$47,946

28. Educational Requirement for Position
Skill Ladders Based on Education for Position Median Pay Warehousing, Inland Empire 2018
Educational Requirement for Position 
Experienced
All Workers
Entry Level
Share of Jobs
Work Experience, Plus Bachelor's or Higher
$62.14
$49.98
$34.58
7.7%
Bachelor's Degree
$38.02
$29.94
$24.10
6.3%
Work Experience
$28.17
$21.88
$17.22
4.8%
Associates Degree
$34.70
$27.89
$22.47
1.2%
Post-Secondary Vocational Education
$42.63
$30.46
$22.77
4.7%
Long-Term On-the-Job Training
$33.11
$25.63
$19.64
5.7%
Moderate-Term On-the-Job Training
$34.37
$24.94
$18.04
26.9%
Short-Term On-the-Job Training
$20.02
$15.67
$12.84
42.8%
Wholesale Trade Sector
$30.62
$23.41
$17.79
100.0%
No Schooling After High School All OJT
$26.25
$19.86
$15.33
80.1%
Trade or Community College All OJT
$41.03
$22.71
5.9%
Bachelor's Or More All OJT
$51.32
$40.99
$29.88
14.0%

29. E-Commerce
14.5%

30. Port Container Volumes Record Levels

31. Net Industrial Absorption
20.2 million

32. Industrial Vacancy Rate
3.6%

33. Construction Locations

34. Industrial Lease Rates
Up 29.0%

35. ONT Airport Cargo
Record Volume
16.1%

36. Disappearing Available Space For Facilities
Market 
500,000+
1,000,000+
High Desert
206 42
Coachella Valley 92 21
Moreno Valley/Perris
117 59
West SB Valley 45 12
Central SB Valley 49 9
East SB Valley 16 1
Southwest 15
Pass Area 23 7
Western RivCo Edge 13 3
Riverside 5
Total Remaining 
581
157
Without Deserts, Moreno Valley/Parris
166 35

37. 2018 Forecast: Space v. Regulators
2019 Prospect: Somewhat Weaker

38. Manufacturing Job Growth
4.0% of Job Growth

39. 2018 Median Manufacturing Pay
$54,800

40. U.S./CA Manufacturing Job Growth

41. CA Electrical Cost
+74.6%
+83.5%
+135.4%

42. Marijuana?

43. 2018 Forecast: Tariffs & CA Policy
2019 Prospect: Weaker

44. Construction Job Growth
12.4% Of Job Growth

45. Median Construction Pay: 2018
Best Paying Blue Collar Sector
$53,322

46. Home Volume

47. Home Prices FHA Conforming Loan Limit: $431,250 LA/OC is $726,525
+3.7%
-10.2%

48. Price Competition
Highest Price Gaps In History

49. Apartment Rates/Vacancy, 2018
Inland Empire $1, %
San Diego $1, %
Ventura $1, %
Orange $2, %
Los Angeles $2, %
Source: USC Lusk Center For Real Estate

50. 2018 Forecast: Supply v. Demand
2019 Prospect: A Little Weaker

51. Professionals & Mgmt, Higher Education Mining, Utilities, Information
8.6% of Job Growth

52. Median Moderate Paying Financial & Education Jobs: 2018
$57,109

53. Moderate Paying Office/Education
2019 Prospect: About The Same

54. Professionals & Mgmt, Higher Education Mining, Utilities, Information
1.9% of Job Growth

55. Median High-End Pay: 2018
$76,202

56. BA or Higher
21.4%

57. 14 Inland Cities Better Educated Than At Least One Coastal County

58. Office Market Absorption
588,181

59. Office Market Vacancies
E-Commerce Hurts Market
24.2%
9.1%

60. Office Lease Rates
Down -2.5%

61. ONT Airport Passengers
Level
12.9%

62. 2018 Forecast: Competitive Disadvantage
2019 Prospect: Slightly Weaker

63. Federal, State, Local Government
-0.4% of Job Growth

64. Median Government Pay: 2018
$63,499

65. 2018 Forecast: E-Commerce v. Pop. Growth
2019 Prospect: Somewhat Less

66. Retail Market

67. Population Serving & Tourism Sectors
40.6% of Job Growth

68. Median Modest Pay: 2018
$32,177

69. Median Household Income, 2017 Deducting Housing Costs Above IE

70. Retail Vacancy Rates 3rd Quarter 2018
Orange %
San Diego %
Los Angeles %
Ventura %
Inland Empire %

71. Retail Rates Per Sq. Ft. Sept-2018
Inland Empire $2.05
Orange $2.40
San Diego $2.44
Los Angeles $2.48
Ventura $2.53

72. 2018 Low Paying Forecast: E-Commerce v. Pop. Growth
2019 Prospect: Weaker

73. Look Ahead

74. Inland Empire’s Job Growth Still Strong!
YTD 2018 = 46,100
2019e = Down -5,000 to -8,000
2020 = Recession?