1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Outlook & Policies
I-LEAD
Johnston, Iowa
Mar. 23, 2017
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
158.1
171.0
168.4
174.6
170.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,829
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,065
Beg. Stocks
821
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,320
Imports 36 32 67 55 50
Total Supply
14,686
15,479
15,401
16,940
16,435
Feed & Residual
5,040
5,280
5,120
5,550
5,450
Ethanol
5,124
5,200
5,224
5,400
Food, Seed, & Other
1,369
1,401
1,422
1,445
1,470
Exports
1,920
1,867
1,898
2,225
1,900
Total Use
13,454
13,748
13,664
14,620
14,220
Ending Stocks
2,215
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.46
3.70
3.61
3.40
3.50
Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 2 2

3. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

4. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. U.S. Meat Trade
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

7. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

8. Corn Grind for Ethanol

9. Current Corn Futures
3.96
3.85
3.48
Source: CME Group, 3/21/2017

10. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

11. Farm Incomes
Source: USDA

12. What is a Farm Bill?
The farm bill is the primary agricultural and food policy legislation set by the U.S. federal government.
It governs commodity programs, trade, food and nutrition programs, rural development, farm credit, conservation, agricultural research, and other programs related to agriculture.
Some programs within the farm bill are permanent legislation, whereas other programs have expiration dates.

13. Farm Bill History
Congress passed the 1st farm bill in 1933, the Agriculture Adjustment Act.
The 1938 farm bill established a base set of agricultural policies as permanent and set a timeline for updates every 5-7 years.
There have been numerous updates to agricultural policy since then, with the latest in 2014.

14. Farm Bill Titles Commodities IX. Energy
Conservation X. Hort. & Organic Ag.
Trade XI. Crop Insurance
Nutrition XII. Miscellaneous
Credit
Rural Development
Research
Forestry

15. Programs by Title Commodity
Income and price support programs for producers
Conservation
Environmental/conservation programs
Trade
Trade promotion programs
Nutrition
Income and price support programs for consumers

16. Programs by Title Credit Farm loan/Ag credit programs
Rural Development
Rural infrastructure programs
Research
Research funding for USDA and higher education
Forestry
Forestry management programs

17. Programs by Title Energy Biofuel programs
Horticulture and Organic Agriculture
Farmers markets
Crop Insurance
Modifications to crop insurance
Miscellaneous
Livestock disaster programs and price reporting

18. Farm Bill Projected Spending
$489 Billion

19. Expected Spending
Source: CBO

20. PLC pays, ARC does not Neither pay Both pay ARC pays, PLC does not
The choice depends on where you expect prices and yields to be over the next 5 years. There are price/yield combinations where PLC pays and ARC does not. There are also price/yield combinations where ARC pays and PLC does not.

21. Federal Crop Insurance

22. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)22 22

23. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

24. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

25. DDG Exports
Source: USDA

26. World Corn Markets
Source: USDA 26 26

27. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: