1. BITCOIN prediction
Mark Perelman
ISI 490

2. Systems Request

3. Proposal
- Develop a system that can predict the price of Bitcoin for company traders; - Traditional methods of predictions can be integrated with machine learning; - Higher accuracy predictions will bring higher returns; - Sale of license produces extra revenue;

4. Project Sponsor:
Crypt Crypto – investor;

5. Business Need:
- Portfolio Expansion; - Revenue from emerging market; - Gain reputation and market share;

6. Business Requirements:
- Working internet connection; - Data Science Maintenance; - Workstations;

7. Business Value :
- Data prescribed decision-making; - Unique models; - Ability to share platform and enhance partnerships;

8. Constraints :
- Data sources must be functional; - Model needs to periodically updated; - Data scientist on demand;

9. FEASABILITY ANALISYS

10. DEVELOPMENT COSTS Cash Flow Description Year 0 Year 1 Year 2
Planning & Design
$3,000
Coding
$40,000
Testing
$5,000
Server
$2,000
Closeout
$10,000
Total
$60,000

11. Operation/Maintenance Costs
Cash Flow Description
Year 0
Year 1
Year 2
Model Maintenance
$5,000.00
Server Maintenance
$1,500.00
User training
$3,000.00
Total
$9,500.00
$8,000.00

12. Time adjusted cost (adjusted pv) Cumul. cost over lifetime
Costs Adjusted
Cash Flow Description
Year 0
Year 1
Year 2
Discount factors for 12%
1.000
0.893
0.797
Time adjusted cost (adjusted pv)
$69,500
Cumul. cost over lifetime
$69,500.00
$76,642.86
$83,020.41

13. Software License Sales
Tangible Benefits
Cash Flow Description
Year 0
Year 1
Year 2
Service Revenue
$150,000.00
$200,000.00
$350,000.00
Hedge Fund Revenue
$500,000.00
$600,000.00
Software License Sales
$100,000.00
Total
$350,000
$800,000
$1,100,000

14. Customer Satisfaction
Intangible Benefits
Cash Flow Description
Year 0
Year 1
Year 2
Customer Satisfaction
$50,000.00
$75,000.00
Total $0
$50,000
$75,000

15. Time adjusted benefits Cumulative lifetime adjusted cost and benefits
Benefits Adjusted
Cash Flow Description
Year 0
Year 1
Year 2
Discount factors for 12%
1.000
0.893
0.797
Time adjusted benefits
$350,000
$758,929
$936,703
Cumulative benefits
$1,108,929
$2,045,631
Cumulative lifetime adjusted cost and benefits
$280,500.00
$1,032,285.71
$1,962,610.97

16. Operation/Maint. Costs
Development Costs
Operation/Maint. Costs
Planning & Design
Coding
Testing
Server
Closeout
Model Maintenance
Server Maintenance
User Training
Tangible Benefits
Intangible Benefits
Service Revenue
Hedge Fund Revenue
Increase in Clients
Reputation
Software Licenses

17. Annual ROI = ROI/period
summary
Summary
Net PV
$ 1,879,590.56
ROI = netPV/cum cost
2364%
Annual ROI = ROI/period
1182%

18. Tasks Task Name Duration Start Finish Predecessors Documentation
48 days
Thu 2/1/18
Mon 4/9/18
Planning
16 days
Thu 2/22/18
System Request
Feasibility Analysis
Analysis
5 days
Wed 2/28/18 2
Requirements Methodology
Use Cases Diagram
User Cases
DFD
ERD
Design
28 days
Thu 3/1/18 5
Infrastructure
10 days
Wed 3/14/18
Model
20 days
Tue 3/13/18
Testing
19 days
Tue 4/10/18
Fri 5/4/18 1
Performance Test
User Acceptance Test
Implementation
6 days
Fri 5/11/18 14
Deploy Web App
Deploy Model App
Closing
3 days
Sat 5/12/18
Tue 5/15/18 17
2 days
Mon 5/14/18

19. GANTT

20. pERT

21. Requirements & use cases

22. Methodolody & Reasoning
A third-party vendor CryptoCurrency Analytics/Prediction software can be costly and unreliable;
With the uncertainty of strategy and metrics, we have decided to develop such a tool ourselves, crafted to our methodology and requirements;
- A JAD session was held and have come up with the needed features that are required for this platform;

23. Jad PARTICIPANTS
- Investment Managers: Active Speaking participants; - Client Support VP: Active Speaking participant; - Crypt Crypto (sponsor): Limited Participation, concerned with aesthetics; - Data Scientist: Active speaking participant regarding the technicalities of the models; - IT Maintenance VP: Curates technical infrastructure; - Scribe: Collects minutes and creates documentation;

24. JAD Questions
- Would a tool like this be helpful in the daily operations?
- Would everybody be comfortable with adapting to a new system?
- What can be done to make the transition as easy as possible?
- What features that exist in the current system would you like to see in the one?
- What are the issues that occur on a daily basis with the current system?

25. Functional Requirements
- Real Time price indexes;
- Predictions based on 15 minute/hourly intervals;
- Predictions for Bitcoin;
- News search;

26. Nonfunctional Requirements
- Mobile support; - RBAC system for users (User accounts for Firm vs License Purchasers); - 24/7 Uptime (Maintenance not included); - Backup measures for data source downtime; - Output is a graph;

27. User requirements: House Investor Data Scientist
Access predictive model to tune parameters
House Investor
View 15-minute interval predictions
View hourly predictions
View News
 Partner
View hourly predictions
View news

28. USE CASES DIAGRAM & USE CASES

29. Use Case Diagram

30. Use case (View Predictions)

31. User cases (Update model)

32. DFd/erd

33. Context Diagram

34. Level 0

35. erd

36. Relational tables

37. Hardware/software

38. Client/Server Architecture

39. HW/SW Specification Standard Web Server Standard Application Server
Standard Database Server
Operating System
Linux
Special Software
Apache
Rshiny/R
MySQL
Hardware
20 GB SSD
2.0 GHz Intel Xeon (Skylake) 
Network
135 Mbp/s Ethernet

40. SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE DESIGN

41. ACQUISITION ANALYSIS Ratings Feature Weights Outsourcing In-House Dev
Feature
Weights
Outsourcing
In-House Dev
Buy
Time
20% 1 2 5
Initial Price 3
Development
35% 4
Overtime Costs
15%
User Support
10%
Totals
2.1
3.75
3.3
Key
1 = The Worst
3 = Medium
5 = The Best

42. Ui: Prototype (Output)

43. Prototype (auth)

44. Program design

45. Fin
BITCOIN PREDICTION