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Life Without a Pause Button
The Digital Revolution is often described as the Third Industry Revolution. The invention of the transition (1947) was its most-accurate beginning, as miniaturization and an electronics-based device were required for all that followed. Maybe, the best way to respond to this tsunami flow of technological innovations is to find and adopt those that will deliver the most benefit for and have a direct effect on your life, work, business and clients. Digital isn’t the only major transformation. Overlaying it like a 3D chess board is the societal/cultural transformation that has been occurring and will also accelerate during 2019 and throughout the remainder of the century.
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Chasing Digital Innovations, Part 1
5G takes another step closer to widespread availability and use – According to Deloitte, won’t be the breakout year, but 25 operators will offer the service and more than 1 million 5G handsets will be purchased. The unrelenting penetration of artificial intelligence (AI) – AI is another transformative technology already proving to improve business efficiencies and positively affect ROI. During 2019, Deloitte predicts companies already utilizing the benefits of AI will access its capabilities via the cloud. AI will also expand beyond its early adopters and become a critical technology for more companies in more industries.
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Chasing Digital Innovations, Part 2
Quantum computing is real – Too complex to explain in much detail here, the development of this major leap in computer technology will continue during 2019 and become more applicable during the next decade. Expanding markets for tech gadgets – Although smartphones sales will continue to stagnant, smart speakers and 3D printers, among many other gadgets, will experience significant growth during Deloitte predicts 164 million more smart speakers will be purchased during 2019, increasing industry revenues by as much as 63%, and the sale of 3D printers will increase 12.5%, exceeding $2.7 billion in printers, materials and services.
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Business Optimism Will Continue
According to the National Federation of Independent Businesses, small business owners (SMBs) remain optimistic, with an index of in the November National Federation of Independent Business’ Small Business Optimism Index. Many of the leading economic analytical sources forecast a somewhat lower GDP for 2019 than 2018, but still within the ideal range of 2.0% to 3.0%. Unemployment is expected to decrease to 3.5% and inflation will remain at a comfortable 1.9%. The GDP and manufacturing growth will slow a bit more during 2020, but unemployment and inflation are expected to match 2019’s forecasts.
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It All Starts with Retail
With consumer spending responsible for approximately 70% of total US economic activity, the retail climate appears to remain relatively strong, with a tight labor market accelerating wage growth and consumer spending. Despite retail bankruptcies and store closings, digitally-native brands, such as Amazon, Casper and Warby Parker, have opened or will open brick-and- mortar stores, refreshing the retail environment. eMarketer is forecasting retail sales will increase 3.3% during 2019, to a total of $5.529 trillion, while e- commerce will continue its double-digit growth, at %, to $605.3 billion.
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Digital Technologies Will Transform Retail
The introduction of more digital technologies into the retail environment – sales associates with tablets, interactive shopping experiences and robots in the aisles – will change how we shop and where we shop. Many brands and retailers, however, will remain cautious about adding many of the cutting-edge technologies available to them during 2019, focusing instead on basic technologies, such as e-commerce, POS systems, analytics and others. 49% of retailers say they will increase their investment in an e-commerce platform during 2019, the largest of all retail technologies, while just 6% of retailers will increase their investment in robots.
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Ad Dollars, as Always, Is the Most-Important Investment
Although 2019 won’t have a major political election cycle to boost ad spending and revenues, BIA Advisory Services forecasts a 1.9% increase in local media spending. Traditional media will still grab the largest share, or 62%, with combined revenues for offline media of $89.7 billion. Without special events to increase local TV spending, MoffettNathanson Research estimates total TV advertising will decrease 4.3% as total digital will increase 18.3%.
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No Stopping Digital Media’s Domination
According to MAGNA’s 2018–2019 forecast, digital media became the #1 ad spending category during 2018, with a 51.5% share, and a total of $106 billion – and it and all its sub-categories will continue to increase during 2019, except for desktop. Nielsen’s Q Total Audience Report reveals the simultaneous use of digital devices and TV will continue to benefit TV advertisers – and is more likely to occur while watching TV than listening to an audio device. “Searching for information related to the content,” at 71%, is the #1 use of a digital device while watching TV; followed by “ /text/message about the content,” 41%; and “search/shop for a product/service being advertised,” 35%.
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E-commerce, a Small, But Strong Shopping Channel
E-commerce remains a relatively small portion of all retail sales, but when removing light-vehicle sales and motor fuel, which aren’t bought online much, if at all, e- commerce sales totaled $ billion during Q , or 13.5% of total retail sales. The creation of “marketplaces,” similar to Amazon, is an important 2019 e-commerce trend. Most consumers don’t distinguish between the online and offline channels, treating them as a single, seamless shopping experience. Text messaging from brands and retailers to consumers is likely to be the new communication channel during Consumers currently open 99% of SMS from senders they recognize, and 90% of them are opened within three minutes.
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Social Media Remains Popular, But Problematic
Trust is likely social media’s largest problem, given the fallout during 2018, with 60% of people saying they don’t trust social media platforms, according to Edelman’s Trust Barometer Report. Brands and retailers must adjust to the increasing popularity of Stories, as almost one billion users prefer this social-media format. Stories are predicted to surpass news feeds and text-based messaging. Video content is a primary driver of direct sales on social media, as a Brightcove study found 74% of visitors journeyed from a social video to a purchase.
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Mobile Shopping Is Moving at the Speed of Consumers
eMarketer Retail reports 2019 total retail m-commerce sales will increase a staggering 38%, to $ billion, and account for more than 75% of all US m- commerce sales. The use of Apple Pay, Square, etc. will increase 39.2% during 2019, to $86.71 billion. A total of million Americans and 27.4% of all smartphone users will use this technology, a 12% increase from 2018. During 2019, eMarketer forecasts mobile ad spending will total $93.25 billion, a 22.4% increase over 2018, and represent 70.5% of all digital ad spending. Numbers that will only increase through 2022.
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The American Melting Pot Is Almost Thoroughly Mixed
Maybe, the most significant trend for brands, retailers and local media to understand is 37.5% of the US population, or million Americans, are multicultural – and multicultural Millennials will account for 49.5% of the US population by 2024. It is relatively common knowledge that Latinx Americans are the largest multicultural segment at 19.6%, and will have contributed 68% of total population growth during the 2010–2019 period. This will continue during the 2019–2024 period. More than 400 US counties will have majority multicultural populations during 2019, which will increase to 420 counties by 2024, and the top 10 US counties will have more than 1 million majority multicultural populations.
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