1. 3rd Growth and Resilience Dialogue
Building Resilient Institutions and Infrastructure for Sustained Growth
14 February 2019

2. Transforming The ECCU Together
Key Message
Global growth for 2019 and have been revised downwards to 3.5 per cent and 3.6 per cent respectively.
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Update,
January 2019
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Transforming The ECCU Together

3. Transforming The ECCU Together
Key Messages
Downside risks are rising and include:
Ongoing trade tensions
Tightening of financial conditions
China slowdown
BREXIT
Climate change
Crime
Venezuela situation
4/3/2019
Transforming The ECCU Together

4. Post-hurricanes Economic Recovery Continues
Notes on GDP Chart:
Pr - Preliminary Est- Estimate Pj - Projection
Sources:
ECCU Central Statistical Offices and Eastern Caribbean Central Bank
4/3/2019
Transforming The ECCU Together

5. Further Slippage in ECCU Countries’ Competitiveness
The World Bank’s Doing Business 2019 report was released in October 2018 and ranked 190 economies.
The 2018 report also ranked 190 economies.
The relative positions of the 6 ECCU economies remained unchanged between the 2018 and 2019 rankings.
Every one of the 6 ranked ECCU countries slipped in their ranking in the 2019 report compared with the 2018 report:
-Antigua and Barbuda slipped 5 positions
-Dominica slipped 5 positions
-Grenada slipped 5 positions
-St Kitts and Nevis slipped 6 positions
-Saint Lucia slipped 2 positions
-St Vincent and the Grenadines slipped 1 position
-ECCU average deteriorated by 4 points
Sources: World Bank, Doing Business 2018; 2019
4/3/2019
Transforming The ECCU Together

6. In 2018, there was a reversal of the downward path towards the
Debt-to-GDP Ratio target of 60.0 per cent
Notes
P – preliminary data
The 2017 and 2018 data are preliminary at the moment while further investigations are made into the data.
Compared with previously reported debt data (specifically, those reported to the Board in January 2019), please note the following:
The historical data (2012 – 2016) remain unchanged.
2017 debt-to-GDP ratio has been revised upwards from 69.5 per cent to 70.3 per cent. The revision is due, in part, to revisions in the GDP data. Also, there appears to be a big upward change in Antigua’s 2017 debt-to-GDP ratio (from 78.5 per cent to 82.0 per cent). This change is still being investigated by SD.
Sources: ECCB; ECCU CSOs
4/3/2019
Transforming The ECCU Together

7. Transforming The ECCU Together
High Level of Non-Performing Loans is a source of vulnerability in our financial sector
Notes:
Neither Anguilla nor Montserrat has an active credit union sector (Montserrat’s credit union is insolvent) and so are not represented in the ECCU data.
Sources: SRUs; ECCB
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Transforming The ECCU Together

8. Transforming The ECCU Together
The productive sectors receive less than half of commercial banks’ credit
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Transforming The ECCU Together

9. Transforming The ECCU Together
Outcome of IMF 2018 Common Policies Mission
The IMF concluded its 2018 regional surveillance mission and identified the following policy issues:
Fiscal responsibility frameworks;
Ex-ante resilience and investment in resilient infrastructure;
Regulatory framework for financial sector; and
Structural reforms to improve competitiveness – energy, labour market and education.
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Transforming The ECCU Together

10. Transforming The ECCU Together
The EC $ remains strong
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Transforming The ECCU Together

11. Transforming The ECCU Together
ECCU Strategic Goals
Transforming
the ECCU Together
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Transforming The ECCU Together

12. Transforming The ECCU Together
Selected ECCB Strategic Initiatives
Fiscal Resilience Framework
Credit Bureau
EC Partial Credit Guarantee Scheme
Fintech Pilot
ECCU Electronic Conveyancing System Project
4/3/2019
Transforming The ECCU Together

13. Transforming The ECCU Together
THANK YOU
4/3/2019
Transforming The ECCU Together