1. Dr. Krista Wiegand University of Tennessee
Conflict Processes
Dr. Krista Wiegand
University of Tennessee

2. What is Conflict Processes?
Also known as conflict management
NOT the same as security studies
NOT the same as peace studies
More quantitative research, but also includes qualitative research methods
What is conflict processes? What is conflict management? In this session, we will examine the different approaches used to research and teach about international conflict, civil wars, and other forms of political violence in the world. First, we’ll talk about the difference between security studies, peace studies, and conflict processes and the different research approaches and topics that can be taught in the classroom stemming from each of these subfields. Then we’ll dive into the stages of conflict processes, also known as conflict management, and the topics that can be taught in IR courses about armed conflict and international disputes. We will next examine trends in the study of international and civil conflict, particularly the increase in teaching and research about civil wars and terrorism, and how narrow or broad courses about armed conflict should be.

3. Security Studies Strategic studies, military studies
Focus on military threats, use of force, and war
Nuclear weapons, arms races, nuclear proliferation, disarmament
Alliance, rivalry, security dilemma
Deterrence, military technology, offense-defense
Geopolitics, grand strategy, military-civilian relations, military strategy and doctrine

4. Peace Studies Started out examining causes of war
Focus is more on positive peace, rather than negative peace – Johan Galtung – not just absence of conflict
Emphasis on norms of violence, peace, international law, justice, human rights
Rooted in non-violence as means to resolve disputes, seek justice
More liberal, critical, and radical views about peace – pacifism, peace activism in the classroom & in research
More theoretical, less empirical
Includes IR, but also other fields of study – anthropology, history, international law, sociology, philosophy, theology, etc.

5. Conflict Processes
First wave of peace studies, but peace studies moved away from scientific study
Patterns of behavior in international disputes and conflicts – mostly about the causes of war or political violence
Scientific study of war – empirical patterns, trends, explanations
Quincy Wright (political science), Lewis Richardson (mathematics), J. David Singer (political science) – patterns of conflict
Increased emphasis on conflict management

6. Types of Armed Conflict
Internal armed conflict – civil wars
Internationalized internal armed conflict
Interstate armed conflict
Extrasystemic armed conflict
Also: individual and group level political violence: assassinations/coup d’tat, terrorism, insurgency, violent protests/demonstrations, rebellions, revolutions

7. Trends in Armed Conflict
Post-Cold war – countries are cycling in and out of recurring conflict – more frequent occurrence
Decline in interstate conflicts since 2003
Civil wars more common
Recurrent conflicts are more common than onset of new conflicts
Conflicts that end are more likely to recur
Overall, number of armed conflicts worldwide has leveled off, but not necessarily declined

8. Stages of conflict process
Prevention/causes/onset/escalation of conflict
Management
Resolution/settlement
Post-conflict/peace-keeping
Peacebuilding

10. Conflict Management
Focus on how to deal with severity and frequency of international disputes, civil wars, armed conflicts
Negotiation, mediation, interstate bargaining
Emphasis on rationalist bargaining model
Growth of quantitative data sets about civil wars, mediation, interstate disputes and wars
1990s-2000s – huge increase in focus on conflict management of armed conflict
Study of the strategy of peaceful attempts to resolve contentious issues

11. Armed Conflict
Armed conflict = at least 25 battle related deaths in any given year
War = at least 1,000 battle deaths overall
UCDP/PRIO/COW datasets
Study of causes, escalation, duration, termination of war and conflict
Study of disputes turning into armed conflict

12. 2 approaches to teaching
2 distinct strategies of teaching conflict processes:
1) Causes/onset of armed conflict
Focus on factors/independent variables that explain conflict/political violence – Why do wars/armed conflict/political violence occur?
2) Conflict management
Focus on dependent variables that are explained by factors in IR – Which factors determine the success of conflict management?

13. Causes of War
Structure of the international system – power politics, realism, polarity, balance of power
Anarchy, arms races, security dilemma
Alliances – balancing, bandwagoning
Territorial & issue related disputes – issues approach, territorial and maritime disputes, contentious issues
Steps to war – contiguity, rivalry, territorial disputes, issues approach
Rivalry – types of rivalries, duration, evolution, termination of rivalry
Democratic peace – regime type, normative & structural factors of democratic regimes, Kantian peace
Economics – capitalism & war/peace, interdependence, international trade, sanctions, and war

14. Causes of War
Domestic politics – domestic audience costs, leader survival, political accountability, two-level game
Misperceptions – under/over-estimations of capabilities, intentions, resolve, etc., psychological factors
Crisis bargaining & coercive diplomacy – bargaining model, rationality, crises, diplomacy
Conventional deterrence – deterrence strategy, conventional weapons
Nuclear weapons & deterrence – nuclear proliferation, MAD, realism
Diversionary use of force – diversionary war, domestic politics, rally around the flag
Civil wars & ethnic conflict – ethnic war, genocide, conflict resolution, partition, peacekeeping

15. Example: Dangerous Dyads (Bremer)
Most important factors of war:
Contiguity
Absence of alliance
Absence of advanced economy
Absence of democracy
Absence of overwhelming power preponderance
Major power

16. Conflict Management Types of settlement Bilateral negotiations
Non-binding third party methods - mediation, conciliation
Legal, binding third party methods – arbitration, adjudication
Success of settlement attempts
Study of termination, duration, intensity of armed conflict
Third party intervention – military, humanitarian
Peacekeeping
Peacebuilding
Humanitarian aid

17. Conflict Process
Useful to teach scientific approach in social science – theory building, hypotheses, variables, measurement, operationalization, testing theory, deduction vs. induction, data sets, data analysis, findings
Students can select different outcomes to explain – onset, escalation, duration, intensity, termination of armed conflict; settlement attempts, conflict management success

18. Questions & Discussion