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Dr. Krista Wiegand University of Tennessee

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1 Dr. Krista Wiegand University of Tennessee
Conflict Processes Dr. Krista Wiegand University of Tennessee

2 What is Conflict Processes?
Also known as conflict management NOT the same as security studies NOT the same as peace studies More quantitative research, but also includes qualitative research methods What is conflict processes? What is conflict management? In this session, we will examine the different approaches used to research and teach about international conflict, civil wars, and other forms of political violence in the world. First, we’ll talk about the difference between security studies, peace studies, and conflict processes and the different research approaches and topics that can be taught in the classroom stemming from each of these subfields. Then we’ll dive into the stages of conflict processes, also known as conflict management, and the topics that can be taught in IR courses about armed conflict and international disputes. We will next examine trends in the study of international and civil conflict, particularly the increase in teaching and research about civil wars and terrorism, and how narrow or broad courses about armed conflict should be.

3 Security Studies Strategic studies, military studies
Focus on military threats, use of force, and war Nuclear weapons, arms races, nuclear proliferation, disarmament Alliance, rivalry, security dilemma Deterrence, military technology, offense-defense Geopolitics, grand strategy, military-civilian relations, military strategy and doctrine

4 Peace Studies Started out examining causes of war
Focus is more on positive peace, rather than negative peace – Johan Galtung – not just absence of conflict Emphasis on norms of violence, peace, international law, justice, human rights Rooted in non-violence as means to resolve disputes, seek justice More liberal, critical, and radical views about peace – pacifism, peace activism in the classroom & in research More theoretical, less empirical Includes IR, but also other fields of study – anthropology, history, international law, sociology, philosophy, theology, etc.

5 Conflict Processes First wave of peace studies, but peace studies moved away from scientific study Patterns of behavior in international disputes and conflicts – mostly about the causes of war or political violence Scientific study of war – empirical patterns, trends, explanations Quincy Wright (political science), Lewis Richardson (mathematics), J. David Singer (political science) – patterns of conflict Increased emphasis on conflict management

6 Types of Armed Conflict
Internal armed conflict – civil wars Internationalized internal armed conflict Interstate armed conflict Extrasystemic armed conflict Also: individual and group level political violence: assassinations/coup d’tat, terrorism, insurgency, violent protests/demonstrations, rebellions, revolutions

7 Trends in Armed Conflict
Post-Cold war – countries are cycling in and out of recurring conflict – more frequent occurrence Decline in interstate conflicts since 2003 Civil wars more common Recurrent conflicts are more common than onset of new conflicts Conflicts that end are more likely to recur Overall, number of armed conflicts worldwide has leveled off, but not necessarily declined

8 Stages of conflict process
Prevention/causes/onset/escalation of conflict Management Resolution/settlement Post-conflict/peace-keeping Peacebuilding

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10 Conflict Management Focus on how to deal with severity and frequency of international disputes, civil wars, armed conflicts Negotiation, mediation, interstate bargaining Emphasis on rationalist bargaining model Growth of quantitative data sets about civil wars, mediation, interstate disputes and wars 1990s-2000s – huge increase in focus on conflict management of armed conflict Study of the strategy of peaceful attempts to resolve contentious issues

11 Armed Conflict Armed conflict = at least 25 battle related deaths in any given year War = at least 1,000 battle deaths overall UCDP/PRIO/COW datasets Study of causes, escalation, duration, termination of war and conflict Study of disputes turning into armed conflict

12 2 approaches to teaching
2 distinct strategies of teaching conflict processes: 1) Causes/onset of armed conflict Focus on factors/independent variables that explain conflict/political violence – Why do wars/armed conflict/political violence occur? 2) Conflict management Focus on dependent variables that are explained by factors in IR – Which factors determine the success of conflict management?

13 Causes of War Structure of the international system – power politics, realism, polarity, balance of power Anarchy, arms races, security dilemma Alliances – balancing, bandwagoning Territorial & issue related disputes – issues approach, territorial and maritime disputes, contentious issues Steps to war – contiguity, rivalry, territorial disputes, issues approach Rivalry – types of rivalries, duration, evolution, termination of rivalry Democratic peace – regime type, normative & structural factors of democratic regimes, Kantian peace Economics – capitalism & war/peace, interdependence, international trade, sanctions, and war

14 Causes of War Domestic politics – domestic audience costs, leader survival, political accountability, two-level game Misperceptions – under/over-estimations of capabilities, intentions, resolve, etc., psychological factors Crisis bargaining & coercive diplomacy – bargaining model, rationality, crises, diplomacy Conventional deterrence – deterrence strategy, conventional weapons Nuclear weapons & deterrence – nuclear proliferation, MAD, realism Diversionary use of force – diversionary war, domestic politics, rally around the flag Civil wars & ethnic conflict – ethnic war, genocide, conflict resolution, partition, peacekeeping

15 Example: Dangerous Dyads (Bremer)
Most important factors of war: Contiguity Absence of alliance Absence of advanced economy Absence of democracy Absence of overwhelming power preponderance Major power

16 Conflict Management Types of settlement Bilateral negotiations
Non-binding third party methods - mediation, conciliation Legal, binding third party methods – arbitration, adjudication Success of settlement attempts Study of termination, duration, intensity of armed conflict Third party intervention – military, humanitarian Peacekeeping Peacebuilding Humanitarian aid

17 Conflict Process Useful to teach scientific approach in social science – theory building, hypotheses, variables, measurement, operationalization, testing theory, deduction vs. induction, data sets, data analysis, findings Students can select different outcomes to explain – onset, escalation, duration, intensity, termination of armed conflict; settlement attempts, conflict management success

18 Questions & Discussion


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