Trend status of Rwandan social-economic data:

Trend status of Rwandan social-economic data:
Paper Presentation on: Trend status of Rwandan social-economic data: Time series data for tier one SDGs indicators from 2010 to 2015 EGM on Statistics for SDGs Economics November 2017 By: Jean NIYIGABA Economic Researcher and Statistician

CONTENTS Introduction Selected SDGs Indicators data values status
- Data accuracy - Availability - Methodology - Analysis, use, and dissemination Challenges Conclusion and recommendation Bibliography

1 Introduction

Introduction The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), are a comprehensive United Nations set of 17 goals which will go above and beyond the remarkable past accomplishments of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to create a sustainable world by 2030 Rwanda is a landlocked Centro-East African Country with a high Population density of 415 Inhabitants per Square km according to the 2012 general Census, where agriculture sector employed over 70% of the population and contribute more than 30% on the country GDP; with non precious abundant natural resources apart the agriculture land, the Rwandan economy is more accounted on investment attraction, services and on its population hard working and innovative activities. 一三

That is the reason that this paper has addressed the SDGs main components focusing on trend status of time series data for the following seven (7) tier one SDGs indicators from 2010 to including: G2.1.1: Total official flows (official development assistance plus other official flows) to the agriculture sector, G2.1.2: Agricultural export subsidies, G.7.1.1: Proportion of population with access to electricity, G Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita, G Unemployment rate, by sex, age and persons with disabilities, G Passenger and freight volumes by mode of transport and G17.1.1: Total government revenue as a proportion of GDP by source. Introduction 一三

SDGs Indicators data values status
G2.1.1: Total official flows (official development assistance plus other official flows) to the agriculture sector Data accuracy Values of this indicator on the left-hand side of Rwanda country page are correct and were collected by sum up the flows passing through the National Budget other official flows. Information of data sources on the right-hand side of Rwanda country page are correct but not complete as there is key Information of data source missing which is the Rwandan Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MINECOFIN) this one provide the Government flows in the sector this also will allow the comparison of flows passing through the National Budget and the one passing through other development partners SDGs Indicators data values status 一三

G2.1.1: Total official flows (official development assistance plus other official flows) to the agriculture sector Availability Regarding the left-hand on Rwanda part in the SDG’S survey on this sector, there are no values of the indicators that have not been reflected on the left-hand. Normally total official flows to the agriculture sector are well defined in the National Budget but that ones from other development partners not passing through the National Budget are difficulty to be well indentified, that why it is suggested that, if possible all official flows in the sector from the development partners should pass through the National Budget if not those one should be well identified and enumerated then provide sector flows reports periodically. SDGs Indicators data values status 一三

G2.1.1: Total official flows (official development assistance plus other official flows) to the agriculture sector Methodology Reports review Reviewed official Rwandan financial reports containing this SDGs indicator including the annual budget reports for the Ministry of finance and Economic Planning (MINECOFIN). Due to lack of flows from some development partners we had also refer to the reports from the organization for Economic Cooperation and development (OECD). These documents helped to review and understand the real picture of data on specified indicator. SDGs Indicators data values status 一三

Amount in USD (Millions)
G2.1.1: Total official flows (official development assistance plus other official flows) to the agriculture sector Analysis, use, and dissemination Data Source: MINECOFIN and OECD SDGs Indicators data values status year Amount in USD (Millions) 2010 155.17 2011 144.28 2012 91.32 2013 98.91 2014 100.51 一三

G2.1.1: Total official flows (official development assistance plus other official flows) to the agriculture sector Analysis, use, and dissemination NB: According to the above trend we realize that the trend of official flows to the agriculture sector increased from to 2011 then decrees in 2012, this doesn’t mean that the government and its development partners cut off the importance accorded to the sector, but the explanations are that: from 2008 to 2011 the Rwandan Government with development partners through the Ministry of Agriculture and National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda launched a Seasonal Agriculture survey which requires a lot of capital for survey materials, so after that in 2012 the sector was back on the normal routine budget. In Rwanda we are using the above SDG economic indicator to address agriculture policy issues for example to decide on the rates use of the inorganic and organic fertilizers and different technologies to be established in the sector to improve the agriculture productivity. According the above explanations, this indicator in Rwanda is reasonable to compile. The total official flows (official development assistance plus other official flows) to the agriculture sector indicator is disseminated to the users through MINECOFIN, NISR reports and websites channels, different reports for development partners and through media channel. It would be better if this indicator should be disseminated also in the Seasonal agriculture survey which is being done periodically in Rwanda so that it could be most effective as the report of this survey is used by a lot of users and it will also be reflected in the global database. SDGs Indicators data values status 一三

2 G.7.1.1: Proportion of population with access to electricity Data accuracy Values of this indicator on the left-hand side of Rwanda country page are not correct the ones obtained from the 2012 Rwanda Population Census, Rwandan Energy group (REG), 2002 and 2012 Rwanda Population Census projections and EICVs are: 10.8% in 2010, 17.5% in % in 2014 and 20.6% in Information of data sources on the right-hand side of Rwanda country page are correct but it better to specify the said HH Survey so that user or reader can well identify the data sources there is also a missing key data source which is the Rwandan Energy group (REG) in charge of electricity distribution, this one can provide more accurate and updated data on this specified indicator SDGs Indicators data values status 一三

2 G.7.1.1: Proportion of population with access to electricity Availability Regarding the left-hand on Rwanda part in the SDGs survey on this sector, there are no values of the indicators that have not been reflected on the left-hand. The population with access to electricity is also well defined in by taking the total number of household with accesses to electricity where dada are available in Statistical year book or REG reports divided by the total number of household available in the census projection report. That why it is suggested that, if possible all that availability should also be taken into consideration so that data on this indicator should be available periodically SDGs Indicators data values status 一三

2 G.7.1.1: Proportion of population with access to electricity Methodology Statistical reports review Reviewed official Rwandan statistical reports containing this SDGs indicator including Surveys, Census etc..., these documents helped to review and understand the real picture of data on specified indicator. To calculate the values of this indicator, we had use EICV reports, REG reports, Rwanda Statistical year books population and household data projections of the 2002 and 2012 Rwandan Census but those projections are 5 and 2 years time series sequences respectively. We would like to recommend a population projection for 1 year time series sequence. Debates Focus Basing on difference surveys and census data sets, we have been able to make a counter verification on reported data with the collected ones. SDGs Indicators data values status 一三

2 G.7.1.1: Proportion of population with access to electricity Analysis, use, and dissemination SDGs Indicators data values status year Trend proportion (%) Data source and comments 2010 10.8 REG, 2002 Census Projections 2011 - REG reports on the number of Household with electricity available but we can’t have the proportion as there is a missing of total number of household in this year. 2012 17.5 REG, 2012 Census 2013 2014 19.8 REG, 2012 Census Projections and EICV 2015 20.6 REG, 2012 Census Projections, EICV and Statistical year book 一三

2 G.7.1.1: Proportion of population with access to electricity Analysis, use, and dissemination This SDG economic indicator is used to address poverty reduction policy and electricity infrastructure issues as if the assess to the electricity is increasing it result to the decline of population poverty due to creation of a lot of works resulting to the electricity accessibility then it allow also the country to monitor the sufficiency of energy infrastructure. According the above explanations, this indicator in Rwanda is reasonable to be compiled. The Proportion of population with access to electricity indicator is disseminated to the users through Ministry of Infrastructure, REG, and NISR reports and websites channels. We are recommending that this indicator should also be reported via Performance contacts reports signed between the local and central governments be most effective sound able, as everything reported in that report is. According to the above trend, we realize that the Rwandan customer electricity trend proportion increasing gradually from the defined period, this is due to different performance reforms made in the energy sector and the awareness strategies made to the Rwandan citizens on the electricity use for life improvement. SDGs Indicators data values status 一三

G Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita Data accuracy Values of this indicator on the left-hand side of Rwanda country page are not correct the ones obtained from the National Account publication March 13, 2017 page 7 base year 2014 published by the National Institute of Statistics are: 4.51% in 2010, 9.67% in 2011, 9.92% in 2012, 1.72% in 2013, 2.54% in 2014 and % in 2015. Information of data sources on the right-hand side of Rwanda country page are not correct as the one only data source acceptable and competent for Country GDP data source is the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda using the National Account publications which are available quarterly, so it better to modify the dada source on the right-hand side of Rwanda country page. The discrepancies arisen between the initial figures/information and those that we have provided is due to the wrong data source which was been used in previous situation. SDGs Indicators data values status 一三

G Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita Methodology Statistical reports review Reviewed official Rwandan statistical published National Account reports containing this SDGs indicator. To calculate the values of this indicator, we had use the National Account publication of March 13, 2017 on page 7 base year 2014 were we have the Annual real GDP per capita then the growth rate is defined by: Where: G.rate: the Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita Percapita1: the real GDP per capita in the current year We would like to recommend an awareness of this regular publication to avoid the use of others sources sometimes having different values other than the ones from the National account. SDGs Indicators data values status 一三

% Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita
G Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita Debates Focus Basing on Rwandan National account database, we have been able to make a counter verification on reported data with the collected ones. Analysis, use, and dissemination Data Source: NISR: National Account publication March 13, 2017 page 7 base year 2014 SDGs Indicators data values status 一 year GDP per head (in USD) % Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita 2010 579 4.51 2011 635 9.67 2012 698 9.92 2013 710 1.72 2014 728 2.54 2015 735 0.96 三

G Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita Analysis, use, and dissemination According to the above trend, we realize that the Rwandan Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita increase with a remarkable trend from 2010 to 2011 and with a moderate one from 2011 to 2014 then a low rate from 2014 to Normally there are a lot of policies made to increase the Rwandan per capital with a considerable trend but the moderate and lower are due to the exchange rates of USD to Rwf which is increasing gradually as well, due to Rwanda still having an increasing deficit or negative Net export. This SDG economic indicator is used to address poverty reduction policy, population welfare issues as well as country development classification range. According the above explanations, this indicator in Rwanda is more reasonable to be compiled. The % Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita indicator is disseminated to the users by the Rwandan Government through National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda in National Account publication reports hardcopies and websites channel. We are recommending an increase of the awareness of the existence of regular periodic publication of National account report so that user could use it as the main source of data for this indicator SDGs Indicators data values status 一三

G Unemployment rate, by sex, age and persons with disabilities Persons in unemployment are defined as all those above a specified age who were not in employment, carried out activities to seek employment during a specified recent period and were currently available to take up employment given a job opportunity. Data accuracy Values of this indicator on the left-hand side of Rwanda country page are missing, but recently in 2016, Rwanda started a survey concerning this indicator which is the Rwanda Labor Force Survey, unemployment rate, defined as the ratio of the number of unemployed persons to the total labor force, is the most commonly used indicator of the labor market. It is sometimes used in a general sense as an indicator of the health of the economy, not just the labor market. SDGs Indicators data values status 一三

G Unemployment rate, by sex, age and persons with disabilities Data accuracy According to the results of the August 2016 LFS, the unemployment rate in Rwanda stood at 18.8 percent. The rate was higher in rural areas (19.8 percent) than in urban areas (16.4 percent). Similarly, it was higher among the female labor force (22.7 percent) than the male labor force (15.7 percent), and among the youth 16 to 30 years old (21.5 percent) than among adults (16.3 percent). Information of data sources on the right-hand side of Rwanda country page is correct but has to be specified as Rwanda Labor Force Survey. SDGs Indicators data values status 一三

G Unemployment rate, by sex, age and persons with disabilities Availability Regarding the left-hand on Rwanda part in the SDGs survey on this sector, there is no indicator values as the there was no official regular data collection tool, but now from 2016 tool was been established and we have avail the current values of this indicator on the country situation. Data on indicator will be regularly available in Rwandan Labor survey report annually SDGs Indicators data values status 一三

G Unemployment rate, by sex, age and persons with disabilities Methodology Statistical reports review Reviewed official Rwandan statistical Labor force survey report contain this SDGs indicator, the Unemployment rate is calculated using the following formula: SDGs Indicators data values status 一三

G Unemployment rate, by sex, age and persons with disabilities Analysis, use, and dissemination According to the labor Survey started in Rwanda in 2016, the results indicate that the unemployment rate is estimated at 18.8 percent with a standard error of percentage points. This is interpreted to mean that the true unemployment rate lies with 95 percent confidence within the interval, 17.7 to 19.9 percent. In this survey the desegregation doesn’t take into account persons with disabilities. Data Source: NISR Rwanda Labour Force Survey 2016 SDGs Indicators data values status 一 Indicator Estimate Standard error Confidence interval Male Female Urban Rural Lower Upper Unemployment rate 18.80% 0.2 17.70% 19.90% 15.70% 22.70% 16.40% 19.80% 三

G Unemployment rate, by sex, age and persons with disabilities Analysis, use, and dissemination The number of Unemployment is somehow high in Rwanda due to the number of the high graduates which are not corresponding to the labor market. The Rwandan Government starts a policy of Technical Teaching program which is allowing the unemployed to start their own employments using both university and those technical skills, but this program still having an issue of capital for those new comers in the labor market and business competition. This SDG economic indicator is used to address employment policy and population welfare issues. According the above explanations, this indicator in Rwanda is reasonable to be compiled. The Unemployment rate indicator is disseminated to the users by the Rwandan Government through National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda in Rwanda Labor Force Survey reports hardcopies and websites channels. We are recommending an integration also of the person with disability employment rate as in the first survey those data was not captured, promotion of awareness on this survey report as the main source of data for this indicator. SDGs Indicators data values status 一三

G Passenger and freight volumes by mode of transport Data accuracy We have no official Values to react on of this indicator on the left-hand side of Rwanda country page if are correct or not, as no official data tolls to collect this indicator. Information of data sources on the right-hand side of Rwanda country page is correct as the but it should be better to attribute also the administrative data collection of this indicator to Rwanda Utility Regulation Authority and Rwanda Transport Development Authority as Government institutions in charge of the indicator monitoring. Availability Regarding the left-hand on Rwanda part in the SDGs survey on this sector, values of the indicator my not reflected to the available data on Rwandan real situation, now it is better to emphasize on its administrative data collection system through concerned government institutions. SDGs Indicators data values status 一三

G Passenger and freight volumes by mode of transport Methodology Statistical reports review Reviewed official Rwandan administrative statistical data from concerned institutions on reports containing this SDGs indicator. Analysis, use, and dissemination Passenger and freight volumes by mode of transport SDG economic indicator is used to address population welfare, intercommunication and interexchange within and outside the country and this is the crucial country sector then this indicator value is reasonable for compilation. The Unit of Measurement Passenger and freight volumes by mode of transport is the Metric tons which is somehow complicated to be determined on the Passengers as this is accounted in number not Metric tons. SDGs Indicators data values status 一三

Passenger Air transport Passenger road transport
G Passenger and freight volumes by mode of transport Analysis, use, and dissemination We are recommending subdividing the above indicator into two parts, where Passengers will be determined in numbers and freight in volume. Eg. Passenger Air transport is in number not Metric tons SDGs Indicators data values status 一 year Passenger Air transport Passenger road transport Marine transport 2010 328,093 - 2011 384,599 2012 509,238 2013 580,825 2014 591,087 2015 601,349 三

G Passenger and freight volumes by mode of transport Analysis, use, and dissemination Data Source: Rwanda Aviation Authority and NISR The Trend is due to the increasing of the National Rwanda trips data on road and Maritime are missing due to lack of the appropriate way to collect those data but recently in 2016 road transport companies started the electronic system (Tap and go) for payment and accounting passengers using their services on daily basis. This will make easy the compilation of the road passenger’s data. SDGs Indicators data values status 一三

NB: for G17.1.1: Total government revenue as a proportion of GDP by source and G2.1.2: Agricultural export subsidies those indicators are not well defined in Rwandan Data collection system there is need for improvement by learning from others how it is being done then incorporate the same processes as data exist but not defined as it is written by the those indicators. SDGs Indicators data values status 一三

The main challenges include:
According to the above analysis on the above some Key indicators, we realize that even are within keys elements on the country social economic welfare monitoring, all of those except the Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita, have different challenges for its availability and accuracy. The main challenges include: The lack of intensified trainings on SDGs metadata for all sectors concerned. Lack of permanent follow up of SDGs indicators integration in all statistical systems data collection. Diverts data sources with different data collection techniques may result to the data discrepancy Data existing but not available due to absence of prioritization of some institutions concerned according to their mission priorities. Challenges 一三

Conclusion and recommendation
The SDGs came at a favorable time for Rwanda as the Agenda 2030 time framework even if it goes over the Rwandan Vision This has enabled the country to easily mirror its National Development Plans and Programme with those of the SDGs Considering the above on Rwandan situation, we realize that some data on indicators are well available periodically through periodic surveys and census conduct in the country which is best practice but need emphasize to keep their periodic availability, we realize also that even if other indicators selected are also ones of keys elements on the country social economic welfare monitoring, there are the following scenarios: data available but with different sources not well coordinated witch effect the data accuracy, Data existing but not collected or compiled which affect negatively the availability due to lack of specified employees to emphasize on their collection and compilation, then one of indicator which is not well defined according to its measurement. 一三

Conclusion and recommendation
As we demonstrate particularity of the country we recommend same measures to be taken to promote that social-economic SDGs indicators and data collection accuracy towards a sustainable world by 2030 including: Establishment of regular and permanent technical supports from UNECA to the country on the collection and compilation of SDGs indicators including regular training and awareness on country and the establishment of UNECA local Staff basing at National Bureau of Statistics to work with all institutions concerned with the SDGs indicators, define as possible one source of data on a given indicator to avoid data discrepancy, then the country has to put more effort not only in the activities to reach the SDGs goals but also in the monitoring of effect of that effort, which is to increase the SDGs indicator data collection system. . 一三

MINECOFIN (2016). Budget allocation and execution by sectors.
Bibliography MINECOFIN (2016). Budget allocation and execution by sectors. NISR (2002). Projections of General Census of Population and Housing 2002. NISR (2012). Rwanda Population and Housing Census 2012. NISR (2012). Population Projections of Rwanda Population and Housing Census 2012 NISR (2014). Rwanda Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey (EICV4) NISR (2016). Statistical yearbook 2016 NISR (2016). Rwanda Labor Force Survey 2016. NISR (2017). Rwanda National Account publication, base year 2014 RCAA (2016). Rwanda Civil Aviation Authority report 2016 RURA (2016). Rwanda Key statistics in transport sector as of June 2016 一三

Thank you！谢谢 (Xièxiè) Murakoze

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