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Elections in Congress Congress
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How are the House of Representatives and Senate selected?
Congress Elections How are the House of Representatives and Senate selected?
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Incumbency Congress
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Congress Incumbents Incumbents
Incumbents rarely face challenges in the primaries Incumbents have name recognition, #1 factor They have the ability to “claim credit” but challengers don’t They have more access to money from PACs Rules prohibit franking immediately prior to the election, but it still impacts before the deadline
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Safe seat – there is no chance the incumbent loses
Congress Elections Elections Safe seat – there is no chance the incumbent loses Unopposed – no one has chosen to run against the incumbent, but the election still has to occur Open seat – the incumbent has chosen to retire, so many challengers compete for the seat Open seat elections cost more money as more donors are willing to chip in to win the seat.
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House incumbents are re-elected
Congress Elections House incumbents are re-elected about 90% of the time
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Congress Elections Incumbents
Incumbents win 90% of races, often 60% of vote in elections. Incumbents Name recognition is so important. 30% of people CAN NAME THEIR REPRESENTATIVE It’s not rare for House incumbents to run unchallenged The districts are gerrymandered, non competitive Districts can be more homogeneous, easy to appeal to
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The Senate incumbency effect is not as strong as in the House of Reps
Congress Elections The Senate incumbency effect is not as strong as in the House of Reps
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Congress Elections Senate Elections
Senate districts are bigger and more diverse Senate Elections Senate challengers are more well known, are also funded by PACs who want access Senator mistakes are magnified since they get more attention The districts are bigger and diverse Senators have a voice in the media, so people develop genuine opinions about them.
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2012 Election – money raised
Congress Elections 2010 election was a “drastic swing”. Republicans took control of House & gained 6 Senate seats. 85% incumbents won. 2012 Election – money raised
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Congress Elections Turnout
In a general election, more people vote. The voting base is more diverse. Greater numbers & diverse electorate generally favors Democrats in recent history. In a Mid term election, way less people vote. The voting base is mainly white, older, and way more involved. Lower turnout generally favors Republicans in recent history
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Congress Elections Fund Raising
Incumbents have better abilities to raise money In recent history, incumbents have been more likely to get donations from PACs Only a well-funded challenger has a chance to compete Advertising is the most important part of Congressional campaign since it gets you name recognition.
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The Senate incumbency effect is not as strong as in the House of Reps
Congress Elections The Senate incumbency effect is not as strong as in the House of Reps
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Congress Elections
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Congress Elections Advertisements
Ads in print & broadcast media reach wide voter audiences. Candidates must pay for all air time, SuperPACs can pay for additional time A Candidate’s ad will mention “___ approved this message” A SuperPAC ad will most likely attack the opponent or a policy stance, since it must remain “uncoordinated”
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Incumbents actually have track records to brag to voters about
Congress Elections Credit Claiming Incumbents actually have track records to brag to voters about Pork projects can be things that have benefitted the entire district. They bring money into the local economy. They provide numerous jobs. Casework essentially wins voter loyalty individually. That person is invested in the candidate
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Coattail effect comes into play in presidential elections
Congress Elections Coattail Effect Coattail effect comes into play in presidential elections A strong presidential candidate can benefit candidates from his or her party. A president with a bad reputation can cause Congressmen to try to distance themselves from the president.
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Bigly Ideas Beliefs & Behaviors
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Congress Wrap Up Advantages for Incumbents Senate & House
Rates of Incumbents Winning Senate & House Mid Term Elections Focus on these things:
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