1. NS4960 Spring Term 2018 China: Nuclear Expansion Issues
Oxford Analytica China Technical Hurdles may block nuclear power plants

2. Overview China has the world's largest fleet of new nuclear plants
Country plans to increase its nuclear energy capacity more than fivefold over next 15 years
One of the few countries to be adding capacity while expansion has largely stalled in Europe, US, and Japan
Chinese companies have also started to sign deals with other countries to build plants there

3. China Nuclear History I
China's first nuclear plants began commercial operation in 1994
The two French units and one indigenous had a total capacity of 1.2 gigawatts (GW) out of around 200 GW total national power generating capacity
At the end of 2015 nuclear power met around 2% of China's electricity needs
A decision in 2005 to increase the role of nuclear energy was motivated by need for security of supply
Economy was booming
Energy demand was rising by more than 15% per year, and
Blackouts across the country were due to shortage of generating capacity

4. China Nuclear History II
By 2010
21 reactors were under construction with a total capacity of 21 GW and
A further 36 units planned totaling about 40 GW
Most of these were CPR-1000s, a Chinese design based on French second-generation technology
Targets for total nuclear capacity by 2020 ran as high as 80GW

5. China Nuclear Post Fukushima I
In response to Fukushima disaster in Japan in March 2011 the government
Suspended all construction of nuclear power plants
Inspected all those in operation and under construction and
Launched a review of its nuclear power strategy
The review led to a five-year plan for nuclear safety which included improving
Safety of existing reactors and
Emergency response mechanisms

6. China Nuclear Post Fukushima II
In addition
Cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency was enhanced to support safety management
Government reduced the capacity target for 2020 to 58 GW (from 80 GW) and
Blocked proposals to site plants inland
The generation II+ CPR-1000 design was to be phased out in favor of
Westinghouse's generation III+ AP1000 design along with other advanced designs such as
France's EPR VVER 1000 and
China's own Hualong One.

7. China Nuclear Post Fukushima III
The government lifted the construction moratorium in October 2012
By the beginning of 2016, China had 30 units operating totaling 27 GFW with a further 27GW under construction
More than 40 GW are planned and the target capacity for 2013 remains at 150 GW

8. Environmental Urgency
Decision to continue the expansion of nuclear energy driven as much by environmental concerns as those relating to security of supply
Not only was the government becoming progressively more committed to constraining greenhouse gas emissions
It was also pressed by popular outrage at worsening air quality arising from coal and oil consumption
Nuclear energy would provide a substantial supplemet to the growing capacity of hydroelectricity and wind power to provide large amounts of low-carbon energy

9. Nuclear Exports I
Renewal of construction within China was accompanied by efforts by its nuclear power companies to internationalize
Three companies have agreements or potential opportunities to build new plants overseas
China General Nuclear Power Corporation (GCN)
China National Nuclear Corporation (GNNC) and
State Power Investment

10. Nuclear Exports II Host countries include
Pakistan
Rumania
Argentina
Turkey,
South Africa, and
The United Kingdom (Hinkley Point and perhaps Bradwell)
China plans to build around 30 nuclear power units in "One Belt, One Road" countries by 2030

11. China Nuclear Challenges I
To realize its nuclear ambitions, China must overcome a number of serious challenges:
Regulatory capacity
China's nuclear energy companies have expended considerable effort over a number of years on training and growth their workforces,
However key government agencies are understaffed
Safety and Security cultures
Training sufficient staff in government and industry is one task
Developing a working culture that fully embraces safety and security is another
China's track record for safety and security management appears to meet international standards, but rapid expansion of capacity will test both systems and cultures

12. China Nuclear Challenges II
Emergency Preparedness
Government white paper published in January 2016 admitted that preparedness for a major nuclear accident is inadequate
Public Option
Public opinion has not been gauged reliably
Most information on public attitudes is anecdotal and includes unsubstantiated reports of local objections to the construction of nuclear facilities
However one well documented case occurred in Guangdong Province in 2013 when local protests forced the government to cancel plans to build nuclear enrichment plant there

13. China Nuclear Challenges III
Technological challenges
Most serious challenge relates to the technology being deployed in some of the plants already under construction and most of those planned
All generation III+ designs are untested
Even if they proceed to operation, the capital costs and construction times are certain to exceed original estimates by a wide margin
The industry's ability to operationalize these untested designs at acceptable cost will determine its future both at home and abroad.