1. Fiscal and Economic Issues Discussion Group
August 2017 Meeting

2. NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues
When we review policy issues we ask:
How will this policy issue affect economic growth and jobs?
How will this policy issue affect the budget deficit, both now and in the future?
We have spent a lot of time examining economic growth, job growth and budget issues at the national level
We started looking at the Illinois budget more in 2015

3. We have had Real GDP Growth Since June 2009

4. Private Jobs Growth Since March 2010

5. NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues Why it’s only starting to feel like full recovery, i.e. the U-6 Unemployment Rate

6. 10 months

8. NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues The Federal Budget Deficit – The issue is increasing deficits in future years

9. NWSOFA Fiscal & Economic Issues Fiscal Year Totals (billions of dollars)           
Bush Budget Years
Obama Budget Years
Fiscal Years
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 (est)
Receipts
2,524
2,105
2,163
2,303
2,449
2,774
3,021
3,249
3,267
3,404
% of GDP
17.0%
14.6%
14.7%
14.9%
15.3%
16.7%
17.5%
18.3%
17.8%
Outlays
2,983
3,518
3,457
3,603
3,538
3,454
3,506
3,759
3,854
3,963
20.1%
24.4%
23.5%
23.3%
22.1%
20.8%
20.3%
20.7%
20.9%
Deficit
-459
-1,413
-1,294
-1,300
-1,089
-680
-485
-439
-587
-559
-3.1%
-9.8%
-8.8%
-8.4%
-6.8%
-4.1%
-2.8%
-2.5%
-3.2%
-2.9%

11. Social Security Trust Fund will run short in FY 2034
The Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund will run short in FY 2028
The longer we ignore these future shortfalls, the more painful the solutions will be.

12. Jobs in Illinois (Non-Farm / 000’s)

13. Illinois Job Growth - Fiscal Years 2009 - 2017