1. John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP
Inland Empire & San Diego County Economies
John Husing, Ph.D.
Economics & Politics, Inc.
Chief Economist, IEEP

2. U.S. Jobs At A Record Level

3. Add Potential Workers: Given Up Or Part Time
18.0%
Add Potential Workers: Given Up Or Part Time
10.6%
7.4%
3.7%

4. Inflation Worry
3.9%
2.3%

5. Interest Rates:
4 Short Term Rate Increases
4.83%
3.20%

6. Yield Curve: Potential Recession Predictor
2 Year to 10 Year
0.30%

7. California Job Gains/Losses

8. Inland Empire Population
Greater Than 25 of 50 States
Greater Than 21 of 50 States
City
Population 
Murrieta
113,541
Temecula
113,181
Menifee
91,902
Wildomar
36,287
Area
354,911
City
Population 
San Diego
1,419,845
Chula Vista
267,503
Area
1,687,348

9. Inland Empire’s Powerful Job Growth!
Percent 2018e above 2007
I.E CA US
15.9% v. 9.8% v. 8.2%

10. San Diego Co.’s Strong Job Growth
Percent 2018e above 2007
SD CA US
11.6% v. 9.8% v. 8.2%

11. Job Growth by Major Regions

12. Job Growth
Fastest 2017 Job Growth Rates in CA!

13. Unemployment Rates City/CDP Labor Force Unemployed Rate San Diego city
726,600
23,000
3.2%
Chula Vista
124,100
4,400
3.5%
Temecula
38,600
1,600
4.0%
Murrieta
55,600
1,800
3.3%
Menifee
55,800
1,900
Wildomar
17,500
700
3.8%

14. Poverty Falling With Job Creation
City/CDP
Children
All
San Diego city
13.1%
18.3%
Chula Vista
12.5%
11.5%
Temecula
8.4%
6.3%
Murrieta
5.7%
5.2%
Menifee
6.8%
6.9%
Wildomar
16.1%
22.5%
23.5%
16.4%
16.4%
12.3%

15. Educational Challenge
City/CDP
HS or Less
AA+
San Diego city
26.8%
53.4%
Chula Vista
40.3%
36.4%
Temecula
45.4%
Murrieta
30.2%
44.1%
Menifee
38.3%
Wildomar
23.9%
46.3%
45.3%
32.0%
29.2%

16. Real Estate Performance Logistics

17. Inland Empire Job Growth by Sector, 2011-2018e
23.5% Of Job Growth

18. San Diego County Job Growth by Sector, 2011-2018e
6.7% Of Job Growth

19. E-Commerce
1.1%
9.6%
15.5%

20. Port Volumes – LA/LB

21. Cargo Tonnage: Port of San Diego Break Bulk Cargo

22. Industrial Rates & Vacancies
Lease Rates Per Square Foot Per Month
Inland Empire $ %
Ventura $ %
Los Angeles $ %
Orange $ %
San Diego $ %
Source: CB Richard Ellis

23. Industrial Space Lease Rates
$0.94
$0.92
$0.84
$0.56

24. ONT Airport Cargo
Record Volume
17.7%

25. Air Cargo Tonnage, San Diego International Airport
0.3%

26. Industrial Construction Locations

27. Real Estate Performance Manufacturing

28. Real Estate Performance

29. Manufacturing Job Growth Inland Empire
4.0% of Job Growth

30. Manufacturing Job Growth San Diego County
7.7% of Job Growth

31. U.S./CA Manufacturing Job Growth

32. CA Electrical Cost
+74.6%
+83.5%
+135.4%

33. Natural Gas A Bargain

34. Marijuana?

35. Real Estate Performance Residential

36. Home Volume Annual 2017 Sales Banning 572 Beaumont 1,451 Calimesa 178
Pass Area
2,201

37. All Home Sales San Diego County

38. Home Prices – Inland Empire
FHA Conforming Loan Limit: $405,950
+3.7%
3rd Quarter 2018
Temecula
$601,500
Murrieta
$492,600
Menifee
$423,900
Wildomar
$462,700
-10.2%
3rd Quarter 2018
Temecula
$479,800
Murrieta
$432,500
Menifee
$342,300
Wildomar
$297,100

39. Home Prices – San Diego County
FHA Conforming Loan Limit: $649,750
33.5%
10.8%
September 2018
Chula Vista
$510,000
San Diego
$585,000
SD Co. - all
$575,000

40. Price Competition
Highest Price Gaps In History

41. Apartment Rates/Vacancy, 2018
Inland Empire $1, %
San Diego $1, %
Ventura $1, %
Orange $2, %
Los Angeles $2, %
Source: USC Lusk Center For Real Estate

42. Construction Job Growth
12.3% Of Job Growth

43.
11.6% Of Job Growth

44. Real Estate Performance Office

45. Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 2017

46. Median Household Incomes, 2017

47. Office Market Absorption
Sq. Feet 2018 YTD
Los Angeles
1,583,481
Orange
410,916
Inland Empire
395,011
San Diego
352,363
Ventura
343,492

48. Office Market Rates E-Commerce Hurts Market Market Sq.FT./Mo.
Los Angeles
$3.58
San Diego
$2.96
Orange
$2.94
Ventura
$2.09
Inland Empire
$1.96

49. Office Vacancies Market Sq. Ft./Mo. Inland Empire 9.1% San Diego 9.8%
Orange
10.9%
Los Angeles
13.3%
Ventura
13.5%

50. 13.1%

51. Air Passengers, San Diego
6.7%

52. Private Sectors Needing Educated Workforce Inland Empire
1.9% of Job Growth

53. Private Sectors Needing Educated Workforce San Diego County
12.5% of Job Growth

54. Real Estate Performance Retailing
Hurt by E-Commerce

55. Population Forecast,

56. Median Household Income

57. Net Retail Absorption 2018 YTD
San Diego ,599
Orange ,271
Ventura ,533
Inland Empire ,665
Los Angeles -235,355

58. Retail Vacancy Rates 3rd Quarter 2018
Orange %
San Diego %
Los Angeles %
Ventura %
Inland Empire %

59. Retail Rates Per Sq. Ft. Sept-2018
Inland Empire $2.05
Orange $2.40
San Diego $2.44
Los Angeles $2.48
Ventura $2.53

60. Summary