1. Concepts to be included
Causality
Probabilistic
(Non-)linear relationship
Deterministic
Spurious relationship
Dependent variable
(causal) hypothesis
Independent variable
Sign or direction (of a causal relationship)
Bivariate
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4/4/2019

2. Bivariate associations
Henk van der Kolk

3. Aim Causality: Time order, Association, Non-spurious relationship.
Bivariate associations between variables with various levels of measurement.

4. A relationship between two variables
Exogenous concept
Cause
X-variable
Independent variable
Treatment
Endogenous concept
Effect / Consequence
Y-variable
Dependent variable
Observation

5. Causality in a graph Positive Dependent variable “SIGN” Negative
This is called the ‘sign’ of a relationship.
Independent variable

6. Non linear: parabolic
Non linear: quadratic
Linear negative
Dependent variable
Independent variable

7. Probabilistic
Deterministic: If … then ‘always’ Probabilistic: If … then ‘relatively more/less often’

8. Probabilistic causality in a graph

9. Why probabilistic only?
Measurement error Parsimoneous models: omitted variables

10. Measurement levels of variables
Dichotomous
Gender (male, female) of a person
Nominal
Country in which the headquarter of a company is located
Ordinal
Innovative power of a company (low, medium, high)
Interval
IQ scores of employees
Ratio
Profits or losses of a company

11. Relating variables
Using ‘graphs’ to show causal relationships works fine when using interval - or ratio level variables. How to show the relationship between dichtomous and nominal variables?

12. Probabilistic causality in a table
Two dichotomous variables
Independent variable A B
Total
Dependent variable I x X II

13. Probabilistic causality in a table
Two ordinal variables, or nominal variables (with columns and rows ordered by expectation)
Independent variable A B C
Total
Dependent variable I x X II
III

14. This micro lecture Causality: Time order, Association,
Non-spurious relationship.
Bivariate associations between independent and dependent variables with various levels of measurement

15. Footer text: to modify choose ‘Insert’ (or ‘View’ for office 2003 or earlier) then ‘Header and Footer’
4/4/2019