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Fig. 2. Best model fits. Best model fits. Illustration of the best model fits for the (A) basic, (B) continuous, and (C) cluster models. See Table 1 and.

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Presentation on theme: "Fig. 2. Best model fits. Best model fits. Illustration of the best model fits for the (A) basic, (B) continuous, and (C) cluster models. See Table 1 and."— Presentation transcript:

1 Fig. 2. Best model fits. Best model fits. Illustration of the best model fits for the (A) basic, (B) continuous, and (C) cluster models. See Table 1 and main text for the specification and statistical comparison of the different models considered. Here, results from 1000 monthly simulations starting with estimated initial conditions in October 2002 are shown for the respective models with the maximum likelihood estimates parameters, for the median (in red), and for the 95% uncertainty intervals (shaded red, for the 2.5 and 97.5% quantiles of the 1000 runs). For comparison, the observed monthly H3N2 incidence data for the United States are shown in black. The estimated reporting rate and its confidence intervals for both models including virus evolution are given in fig. S11. Xiangjun Du et al., Sci Transl Med 2017;9:eaan5325 Published by AAAS

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