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Climate Change in Scotland / UK / N. Europe
David Stevenson School of GeoSciences University of Edinburgh
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Measured temperature trends
(IPCC, 2007)
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(IPCC, 2007) Scottish Temperature 1914-2005 (Scottish Executive, 2006)
(Environment Agency, 2010) (Palutikof, 2000) (IPCC, 2007)
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Spring is getting earlier!
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N. Europe likely to warm by 2-5C by 2100
Ranges for different emission scenarios Model range in red, Observations in black Model range in orange (IPCC, 2007)
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Projected warming, 1990s to 2090s Average of 21 models, A1B scenario
Winter Summer Scotland projected to warm 2-3°C over the next century (IPCC, 2007)
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Projected changes in precipitation, 1990s to 2090s Average of 21 models, A1B scenario
Winter Summer Scotland: wetter winters; possibly drier summers, but less consensus (IPCC, 2007)
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Winter Summer Present-day climate
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Winter Summer Carbon dioxide doubling: winter +3oC, summer +3oC
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Summary Scotland likely to warm ~2.5C by 2100 (also more extreme heat-waves) Winter precipitation increases Summer precipitation may decrease Precipitation intensity increases – flash-floods Snow declines Sea-level rise partly mitigated by uplift (post-glacial rebound) – coastal floods Scotland is perhaps relatively the least impacted region of N. Europe? Impacts: Agriculture, biodiversity, tourism, immigration…
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Where is the current climate best matched to the UK climate of the future?
Broadmeadow et al 2003, Climate change and broadleaved tree species
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Scottish precipitation 1914-2008
Increase since 1970 – mostly in winter precipitation Intensity of individual events has increased Consistent with model predictions of climate change
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