1. Stepping on Earth: A Roadmap for Data-driven Agent-Based Modelling
Samer Hassan
Luis Antunes
Juan Pavón
Nigel Gilbert
University of Surrey
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Universidade de Lisboa

2. The Classical View Breaking the Rules Dealing with Data
Contents
The Classical View
Breaking the Rules
Dealing with Data
Data-driven Flow
Difficulties
Samer Hassan
ESSA 2008

3. Classical Logic of Simulation
Samer Hassan
ESSA 2008

4. Simplicity is helpful:
Classical Paradigm
Axelrod’s KISS
Occam’s razor
Simplicity is helpful:
Transmitting the model
Promoting understanding
Promoting extensibility
Abstract models -> more general?
Easier to design, analyse and check
Samer Hassan
ESSA 2008

5. The Classical View Breaking the Rules Dealing with Data
Contents
The Classical View
Breaking the Rules
Dealing with Data
Data-driven Flow
Difficulties
Samer Hassan
ESSA 2008

6. Data-driven Modelling
Use of empirical data
Instead of standard distributions
Attempt to be more realistic
Getting closer to the target
Increasing complexity of the models
Against the KISS paradigm
Strongly linked to the intense use of the data available
Samer Hassan
ESSA 2008

7. A Well-known Alternative
Edmonds & Moss’ KIDS:
Design the most similar model to the target
Analyse the model to see which parts could be simplified while preserving the behaviour
With further simplifications, it could be used in several contexts with assured good foundations
Samer Hassan
ESSA 2008

8. A New Perspective
According to KISS, complexity should only increases when difficulties are met
‘Deepening’ KISS:
Begin with KISS
Through the use of evidence and especially data, a collection of models can be developed and explored
With the design space (of agents, societies and experiments) explored, the best features of each model can be used to design a stronger model
Samer Hassan
ESSA 2008

9. The Classical View Breaking the Rules Handling Data Data-driven Flow
Contents
The Classical View
Breaking the Rules
Handling Data
Data-driven Flow
Difficulties
Samer Hassan
ESSA 2008

10. Statistical Distributions
‘Let’s assume that salaries follow a Gamma distribution’
Real data closer than standard distributions
Distributions are static
Not necessary more general
Samer Hassan
ESSA 2008

11. Representative sample from target population? Surveys
Handling data
Representative sample from target population? Surveys
Survey’s questions not phrased in the right way for the researcher’s interests
Compromises
Unlikely including interconnections and interactions between sample members
Networks?
Inherently qualitative data?
Samer Hassan
ESSA 2008

12. How to deal with dynamical processes?
Handling data
How to deal with dynamical processes?
Panel studies
Ethnography
Usual activities recording
Official documents
Internet records
Before extra efforts
Check what’s out there!
National Data Archives
Samer Hassan
ESSA 2008

13. The Classical View Breaking the Rules Dealing with Data
Contents
The Classical View
Breaking the Rules
Dealing with Data
Data-driven Flow
Difficulties
Samer Hassan
ESSA 2008

14. Proposal for Data-Driven ABM
Samer Hassan
ESSA 2008

15. The Data-driven Flow
Samer Hassan
ESSA 2008

16. Technologies can help Typical smooth behaviour ->Soft computing
Neural Networks for adaptive learning behaviours
Fuzzy Logic for modelling social processes
Evolutionary algorithms can optimise agent behaviour
Search for patterns and clusters in the input and output
Classifiers and Data Mining
Representation of concepts
Ontologies represent an easy-to-handle interface with experts, and a formal view that can be inserted in the ABM
Natural Language Processing for a better representation of the simulation output
Samer Hassan
ESSA 2008

17. The Classical View Breaking the Rules Dealing with Data
Contents
The Classical View
Breaking the Rules
Dealing with Data
Data-driven Flow
Difficulties
Samer Hassan
ESSA 2008

18. Difficulties Sometimes, a KISS model is enough
Ease of understanding & communication of KISS is partially lost
Modularity
‘Deepening’ stages lead to understanding
Demands special effort in gathering data
Addressed difficulties related to the procedures:
surveys not providing the required data; lack of information; qualitative or subjective data
Technologies should only be used in their certain context
Samer Hassan
ESSA 2008

19. Thanks for your attention!
Samer Hassan
University of Surrey
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Universidade de Lisboa
Samer Hassan
ESSA 2008

20. Contents License This presentation is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0
You are free to copy, modify and distribute it as long as the original work and author are cited
Samer Hassan
ESSA 2008