1. Together or apart? Attitudes towards multi-ethnic state and ethnically mixed communities in post-independence Kosovo.
Artjoms (Tom) Ivļevs
University of the West of England and University of Nottingham
Roswitha M. King
Østfold University College and University of Latvia
Western Balkans: Poverty and Inclusion
Brussels, December 14-15, 2010

2. Motivation
The independent State of Kosovo was proclaimed in February 2008
The State of Kosovo was concieved as a “multiethnic” country where
“the members of (ethnic) communities have the right to freely express, foster and develop their identity and community attributes”
“the State ensures appropriate conditions enabling communities, and their members to preserve, protect and develop their identities
Constitution of the Republic of Kosovo

3. Questions
What do Kosovars themselves think about the viability of their nation as a multiethnic state?
Is there a difference in attitudes towards multiethnic state between ethnic Albanians and ethnic Serbs?
Do factors like age, income, education affect the attitudes towards multiethnic state?

4. Independence: for many - a dream come true ...

5. A disappointment for others ...

6. Plan
Background information
Data
Methodology
Results
Conclusion

7. Ethnic diversity in Kosovo
Albanians – 88%
Serbs – 6%
Other minorities (Gorani, Turkish, Bosnian, Ashkali , Roma… ) – 6%

9. The survey
The survey was carried out by Ipsos Strategic Puls (regional HQ in Belgrade)in June 2008
Timing: 4 months after the declaration of independence; calmer political circumstances
The survey addressed various questions related to migration, remittances and attitudes about the multiethnic state and the EU membership
1367 face-to-face interviews:
845 with ethnic Albanians
482 with ethnic Serbs (Serb sub-sample boosted)
40 with other ethnic minorities (Turkish, Bosniak, Ashkali and Roma).

10. Main questions
“Do you think Kosovo can work out as a multi-ethnic state?” No
Probably no
Probably yes
Yes
“Do you think it is better that different ethnic groups live separately or in mixed areas?”
Better live separately
Better live in mixed areas

11. “Do you think Kosovo can work out as a multi-ethnic state?”
Whole sample*
(n = 1367)
Ethnic Albanians (n = 845)
Ethnic Serbs (n = 482)
Non-Serb minorities (n = 40) No
8.92 %
5.44 %
66.39 %
2.50 %
Probably no
5.45 %
5.80 %
5.81 %
0.00%
Probably yes
39.77 %
42.96 %
7.68 %
25.00 %
Yes
40.72 %
40.95 %
8.09 %
70.00 %
No answer/
don’t know
5.14 %
4.85 %
12.03 %

12. Non-Serb minorities (n = 40)
“Do you think it is better that different ethnic groups live separately or in mixed areas?”
Whole sample*
(n = 1367)
Ethnic Albanians (n = 845)
Ethnic Serbs (n = 482)
Non-Serb minorities (n = 40)
Better live separately
22.83 %
20.83 %
69.92 %
5.00 %
Better live in mixed areas
68.54 %
71.48 %
8.92 %
85.00%
No answer/ don’t know
8.64 %
7.69 %
21.16 %
10.00 %

13. The model
Pro_multi_ethnici = α * ethnicityi β * socio-demographic characteristicsi γ * district fixed effectsj +
unobserved error termi
Pro_co_locationi = α * ethnicityi β * socio-demographic characteristicsi γ * district fixed effectsj +
Ordered and multinomial probit models
Estimate the models for the whole sample (ethnically weighted), and separately for ethnic Albanians and ethnic Serbs

14. Explanatory variables
Ethnicity
Albanian
Serb
Non-Serb minority
Age
Male
Married
Has children under 18
6 income levels
3 education levels
Student
Unemployed
Lives in rural area
5 district dummies
South East
South West
Central
North
North West

15. Whole sample (ethnically weighted)
Can Kosovo work out as a multi-ethnic state? Ordered probit marginal effects
Whole sample (ethnically weighted) No
Probably no
Probably yes
Yes
Ethnicity
Albanian
Ref.
Serb
0.670***
0.059***
-0.284***
-0.445***
Non-Serb minority
-0.060***
-0.049***
-0.216***
0.325***
Age/10
-0.011***
-0.007**
-0.016***
0.034***
Male
0.013
0.008
0.020
-0.041
Married
0.018
-0.039
Has child(ren)
0.002
0.001
0.003
-0.006
Income
No income
0.012
0.007
0.016
-0.035
< 50 EUR
EUR
-0.016
-0.010
-0.027
0.053
EUR
-0.033**
-0.023**
-0.068*
0.124*
>300 EUR
-0.045***
-0.034**
-0.124*
0.204**
Income non reported
-0.218***
0.327***

16. Can Kosovo work out as a multi-ethnic state
Can Kosovo work out as a multi-ethnic state? Ordered probit marginal effects
Whole sample (ethnically weighted) No
Probably no
Probably yes
Yes
Education
Primary
Ref.
Secondary
-0.024*
-0.015*
-0.036*
0.074*
Tertiary
-0.021
-0.014
-0.038
0.073
Student
-0.041***
-0.030***
-0.097**
0.168**
Unemployed
-0.038***
-0.026***
-0.079***
0.143***
Lives in rural area
-0.016
-0.010
-0.023
0.048
District
South-East
South-West
0.004
0.002
0.005
-0.011
Central
-0.003
-0.002
-0.004
0.009
North
0.068**
0.037***
0.054***
-0.159***
North-West
0.050**
0.028**
0.050***
-0.128***
Number of observations: 1253; pseudo R2 = 0.109;
Chi2 = 445.9; prob > Chi2 = 0.000

17. n=417; pseudo R2 = 0.0241; Chi2 = 17.69; prob > Chi2 = 0.342
Ethnic Albanians
Ethnic Serbs No
Probably no
Probably yes
Yes
Age/10
-0.008**
-0.006**
-0.016**
0.030**
-0.028
0.005
0.009
0.014
Male
0.008
0.006
0.017
-0.032
0.026
-0.005
-0.009
-0.013
Married
0.004
0.010
-0.019
-0.027
0.013
Has child(ren)
0.007
-0.026
-0.001
-0.002
-0.004
No income
0.011
0.021
-0.040
0.192**
-0.040**
-0.066**
-0.087**
< 50 EUR
Ref.
Ref
EUR
-0.008
-0.006
-0.018
0.031
0.117
-0.024
-0.053
EUR
-0.024**
-0.021*
-0.070
0.116*
0.088
-0.017
-0.030
-0.041
>300 EUR
-0.039***
-0.038***
-0.164*
0.241**
0.086
-0.029
Income non reported
-0.050***
-0.052***
-0.278***
0.380***
0.154*
-0.053*
-0.068**
Primary
Secondary
-0.019*
-0.015*
-0.041*
0.075*
0.001
0.002
0.003
Tertiary
-0.012
-0.010
0.052
Student
-0.027**
-0.024*
-0.082
0.133*
-0.125
0.019
0.038
0.067
Unemployed
-0.030***
-0.027***
-0.091**
0.148***
-0.048
0.015
0.024
Lives in rural area
-0.012*
-0.032*
0.059*
0.137**
-0.022***
-0.043**
-0.072**
South-East
South-West -
Central
-0.015
0.049
-0.016
-0.023
North
0.079***
0.050***
0.075***
-0.204***
0.103*
-0.018*
-0.034
-0.051*
North-West
0.035***
0.070***
-0.156***
n=797; pseudo R2 = ;
Chi2 = 68.88; prob > Chi2 = 0.000
n=417; pseudo R2 = ; Chi2 = 17.69; prob > Chi2 = 0.342

18. Live separately or in mixed areas?
Whole sample (ethnically weighted)
Separately
In mixed areas
Do not know
Ethnicity
Albanian
Ref.
Serb
0.656***
-0.680***
0.025
Non-Serb minority
-0.170***
0.114*
0.056
Age/10
0.000
-0.010
0.009
Male
0.085***
-0.046
-0.039**
Married
0.086
-0.081
-0.005
Has child(ren)
-0.063*
0.037
0.026
Income
No income
-0.059
0.031
0.028
< 50 EUR
EUR
-0.060
0.012
0.048
EUR
0.020
-0.061
0.042
>300 EUR
-0.048
0.058
Income non reported
-0.012
-0.134
0.146**

19. Live separately or in mixed areas?
Whole sample (ethnically weighted)
Separately
In mixed areas
Do not know
Education
Primary
Ref.
Secondary
-0.058
0.066
-0.008
Tertiary
-0.106***
0.081
0.025
Student
-0.029
0.043
-0.014
Unemployed
-0.062
0.037
0.024
Lives in rural area
-0.053*
0.062*
-0.009
District
South-East
South-West
-0.077*
0.053
0.023
Central
0.006
-0.076
0.069*
North
-0.088**
-0.047
0.136**
North-West
0.183***
-0.132**
-0.051*
N=1351; Chi2 = 550.0;
prob > Chi2 = 0.000

20. Ethnic Albanians
Ethnic Serbs
Separately
In mixed areas
Do not know
Age/10
0.000
-0.010
0.009
-0.032*
-0.004
0.036**
Male
0.082**
-0.042
-0.040**
0.012
0.014
-0.026
Married
0.067
-0.068
0.011
-0.017
0.006
Has child(ren)
-0.060
0.019
0.040
0.036
No income
-0.050
0.027
0.023
-0.067
0.039
< 50 EUR
Ref.
EUR
-0.049
0.049
-0.102***
0.053
EUR
-0.064
0.024
0.094
-0.091**
-0.003
>300 EUR
-0.089
0.022
0.126
-0.079**
-0.047
Income non reported
-0.129
0.156**
0.210**
-0.103***
-0.108
Primary
Secondary
-0.052
0.055
0.082
0.057
-0.140**
Tertiary
-0.098**
0.069
0.029
0.010
0.070
-0.080
Student
-0.020
0.031
-0.011
0.068
-0.029
-0.039
Unemployed
-0.056
0.025
-0.045
0.095
Lives in rural area
0.062*
-0.007
-0.033
0.041
South-East
South-West
0.035 -
Central
-0.094*
0.054
-0.316***
0.045
0.272***
North
-0.112***
-0.021
0.132**
-0.051
0.016
North-West
0.203***
-0.149**
-0.054**
n=838; Chi2 = 119.5;
prob > Chi2 = 0.000
n=473; Chi2 = 80.61;

21. Conclusions
Ethnicity is a major factor determining attitudes towards the multiethnic state and ethnically mixed habitats
Ethnic Serbs are less favourable to ethnic co-location
The richer and the more educated (especially the ethnic Albanians) tend to be more favourable to Kosovo as a multiethnic state
Important role accrues to age, gender, employment status and region of residence