1. 2nd International Conference on Nuclear & Renewable Energy Resources 4-7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey Nuclear Fusion Energy- Mankind’s Giant Step Forward
Sing Lee 1,2,3*& Sor Heoh Saw 1,2
1Institute for Plasma Focus Studies, 32 Oakpark Drive, Chadstone, VIC 3148, Australia
2INTI University College, Nilai, Malaysia
3Nanyang Technology University, National Institute of Education, Singapore s:

2. CONTENT Energy as the most basic of resources
Correlation of energy consumption & wealth
Exponential growth of population & energy consumption per capita-unsustainable
Human progress is limited unless a new clean energy source is developed
Nuclear Fusion Energy- Man’s giant step forward
Scenario for Mankind’s Future-with Fusion Energy

3. The most basic resource of Mankind is energy
With energy food can be grown, manufactured, processed
With energy, materials can be mined, manufactured, processed
With energy, infrastructure can be built to provide transport, communication, health and education
With energy, Man can explore further afield, to the far corners of the Earth even to extra-terrestrial destinations
With energy, life can be more comfortable, more in conformity with Man as a civilised creature
Not surprisingly, there is close correlation between the wealth of a country and its energy consumption per capita.

4. Close correlation between economic wealth and energy consumption per capita-2006.[2]

5. Trends in population growth and energy per capita consumption growth
AD 1500 World population (estimated) 450 million
AD billion [1]
End billion.
Past 100 years world population grew 4 times, whilst energy consumption grew 10 times.
Thus energy consumption grew faster than population growth;
in other words energy consumption per head grew more than 2 times.
This trend of per capita energy consumption growth will continue as the rest of the world attempts to catch up with the best standard of living in the world.

6. Exponential Growth of Population and Energy Consumption
Past 100 years the doubling time of world population was 50 years
whilst the doubling time of energy consumption was 30 years.
Were this trend to continue, world population would reach 27 billion in another hundred years
whilst energy consumption would increase another 10 times.

7. Exponential Growth is Unsustainable
Unsustainable; as the world is already near the critical point when supply of energy barely meets the demand.
Energy resources are limited and supply trends are estimated to peak in a few short decades from now.
This realisation underlies demographers’ projections that world population growth must slow down in the near future.

8. Estimates of world energy production projected into the future in a scenario [3]

9. World population and projection

10. Current Debate misses the Point
The current debates on the unsustainability of population growth
energy consumption trends and
degradation of the environment
are important in raising public awareness
but
Does not address the fundamental problem.

11. We need one giant bold step
To safeguard Mankind’s unimpeded progress incremental moves are not enough
We need one giant bold step –
Development of a new limitless source of energy
Clean non-polluting energy which will not further aggravate the environment.

12. Present Energy Resources not sufficient
All energy resources are being depleted by the exponential growth of population and of average world per capita consumption
New energy resources are not being developed fast enough
Renewables are too diffused: low energy collection density and poor net energy output; projection of renewables do not show the ability to sustain historical rates of human population growth combined with growth of per capita consumption.

13. Incremental Steps Important but not Sufficient- New Source needed
What Mankind needs is not small increments extracted from energy conservationism or diffuse renewables
What Mankind needs is one Giant Step
A new clean limitless energy source

14. Once-in-History Development
This is not a pipe dream
5 decades of research has gone into the processes of controlling nuclear fusion on earth
The stage is set for this energy revolution-this once in history development

15. STARS Nature’s Plasma Fusion Reactors

16. STARS Nature’s Plasma Fusion Reactors
And a dream lies on the river
And a glamour veils the night
Whilst above the white stars quiver
With Fusion Burning-bright
(adapted from Ciribiribin)

17. Tokamak-planned nuclear fusion reactor

18. Magnetic Yoke to induce Plasma Current
Field Coils to Produce suitable Magnetic Field Configuration

19. What is a Plasma? Matter heated to high temperatures becomes a Plasma
Four States of Matter
SOLID LIQUID GAS PLASMA

20. Characteristics of Plasma State
Presence of electrons and ions
Electrically conducting
Interaction with electric & magnetic fields
Control of ions & electrons: applications
High energy densities/selective particle energies
-Cold plasmas: several eV’s; (1eV~104K)
-Hot plasmas: keV’s ; (1keV~107K)
Most of matter in Universe is in the Plasma State (e.g. the STARS)

21. Collisions in a Plasma
The hotter the plasma is heated, the more energetic are the collisions

22. Nuclear Fusion
If a Collision is sufficiently energetic, nuclear fusion will occur

23. Isotopes of hydrogen- Fuel of Fusion

24. Release of energy in Fusion 1H2 + 1H3 2He4 + 0n1 + 17.6 MeV

25. Natural Fusion Reactors vs Fusion Experiments on Earth

26. JET (Joint European Torus) Project successfully completed 2000; reached Q=0.6, better than planned [Q is ratio of fusion energy generated/input energy to start and heat the plasma]

27. Inside JET

28. Conversion of mass into Energy

29. Fusion Energy Equivalent
50 cups water
1 thimble heavy water, extracted from 50 cups of water

30. Summary of Conditions Technological Targets:
T> 100 million K (10keV)
nt>1021 m-3-sec
n=1020 m-3, confined t=10s

31. Energy confinement time t scales as some functions of:
Plasma current I
Major Radius R
Minor radius ‘a’
Toroidal Magnetic Field B
scaling law: t~Ipa Rb ag Bl
indices a,b,g,l all positive
To achieve sufficient value of ntT requires:
scaling of present generation of Tokamaks upwards in terms of:
I R, ‘a’ and B

32. Fusion Temperature attained Fusion confinement one step away

33. International Collaboration to develop Nuclear Fusion Energy-ITER
1985- Geneva Superpower Summit:
Reagan (US) & Gorbachev (Soviet Union) agreed on project to develop new cleaner, sustainable source of energy- Fusion energy
ITER project was born
Initial signatories: former Soviet Union, USA, European Union (via EURATOM) & Japan
Joined by P R China & R Korea in 2003 & India 2005
ITER Agreement- signed in November 2006

34. ITER Construction has now started in Cadarache, France
First plasma planned 2018
First D-T planned 2022

35. ITER A more detailed drawing

36. ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor)

37. Cooling and Heat Transfer

38. Q>10 and Beyond Q ≥ 10 represents the scientific goal of ITER :
ITER : to demonstrate: possible to produce commercial energy from fusion. Q= ratio of fusion power to input power.
Q ≥ 10 represents the scientific goal of ITER :
to deliver 10x the power it consumes.
From 50 MW input power to 500 MW of fusion power - first fusion experiment to produce net energy.
Beyond ITER will be DEMO (early 2030’s), demonstration fusion power plant which will put fusion power into the grid as early as 2040

39. Potential Next Step Fusion Burning Experiments

40. Unlimited clean energy supply
no need to restrict
the growth of energy consumption,
a better standard of living or
the growth of population.
Figure: energy consumption into the 22nd century.
Such unlimited growth (curve 2 of Figure) need not imply unbridled wasteful consumption.
The best practice of environmental conservatism could be incorporated into growth, so that
efficient and ‘green’ habits become part of the sustained culture of the human race.

42. Figure: Scenario
Development of nuclear fusion energy is coming not a moment too soon.
The critical point when total available energy starts to decline is seen to be reached just before the middle of this century;
Thereafter the consumption curve has to drop (curve 1) & Man will have to cope with a decreasing supply
unless the increasing shortfall is made up by nuclear fusion energy (curve 2)

44. How fast can we expect the take-up of nuclear fusion energy?
Example: Use History of the uptake of nuclear fission energy for our scenario time-line.
The first commercial fission power station installed at Calder Hall, UK, 1956 with 50 MW.
By GW was installed.
By the late 70’s the installed nuclear fission power world-wide had reached 100 GW.
From 1 GW to 100 GW in some 18 years (10-fold increase evry 9 years)

45. Example: Growth of Fission Energy
70’s and 80’s, pressure-group litigation
& rising costs of fission reactors due to regulatory changes
and falling fossil fuel prices made fission plants less attractive
The industry slowed down so that by the late 80’s installed fission power had only grown to 300 GW
and by 2005 only to 370 GW, supplying some:
15% of the world’s electricity consumption and
2.1% of total power consumption.

46. Using the History of the Development of Nuclear Fission Power Plants as Example for our Scenario Time-line:
Scenario of our Figure assumes an installed 1 GW of commercial nuclear fusion power plant in 2050
Growing 10-fold every 9 years for 27 years to 1000 GW by 2077
and then slower growth (10-fold in 23 years) to GW by 2100;
thereafter tripling every 50 years. (present long-term average)
This is not unreasonable. By 2050 the world would know with a certainty the desperation of its energy position

48. The Scenario-with Fusion Energy
Just into the next century fusion energy will take up the slack and allow Mankind to continue its progress and growth (curve 2, available energy, with fusion energy).
The scenario shows that there will be several decades when the constraints of energy shortage will be severely felt. Note the flattening of the energy consumption from around 2040 to (curve 2, with fusion energy) .
Such a period of stagnation in energy and corresponding stagnation in world population (curve 4 showing world population scenario, with fusion energy) seems unavoidable even with the development and rapid adoption of fusion energy.
Without fusion energy the scenario is as shown by the curve 1, depicting a severe downturn in the fortunes of Mankind with world population dropping below 5 billion (curve 3, world population scenario, without fusion energy).

50. Human Spirit Knows No Bound
The human spirit,
its will to explore,
to always seek new frontiers,
the next Everest,
deeper ocean floors,
the inner secrets of the atom:
Iconised into human consciousness by the deeds of Christopher Columbus, Edmund Hillary, Jacques Costeau, and Albert Einstein.

51. In the background of the
ever-expanding universe
Mankind’s boundless spirit will be curbed by a limitation to growth
That was never meant to be
That should never be so

52. Mankind’s Giant Step- Dawning of the Fusion age
Man should have an unlimited destiny
To reach for the moon, as he already has
then to colonize it for its resources
Likewise to reach for the planets
Ultimately-the stars
Man’s spirit must and will remain indomitable

53. Conclusion In this paper we have discussed:
Energy as the most basic of resources
Correlation of energy consumption & wealth
Exponential growth of population & energy consumption per capita-unsustainable
Human progress is limited unless a new clean energy source is developed
Nuclear Fusion Energy- Man’s giant step forward
Scenario for Mankind’s Future-with Fusion Energy

54. 2nd International Conference on Nuclear & Renewable Energy Resources 4-7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey Nuclear Fusion Energy- Mankind’s Giant Step Forward
Sing Lee 1,2,3*& Sor Heoh Saw 1,2
1Institute for Plasma Focus Studies, 32 Oakpark Drive, Chadstone, VIC 3148, Australia
2INTI University College, Nilai, Malaysia
3Nanyang Technology University, National Institute of Education, Singapore s:

55. Thank You