1. Designing for New Expectations
Scenarios 2018:
Designing for New Expectations
2 years work
Global perspective

2. Work is continuing to change – but how much?

3. Herman Miller Scenarios: How will work change through 2018?
Andy/Kevin – is there an HMI image we could put here? I want to refer in my talk to Herman Miller being in the business of creating great spaces where people work and enjoy now and in the future. This is after Neocon so we could even include images related to Living Office if you have any.

4. Scenarios 2018
Popular Mechanics magazine covers from the 1950’s
Predictions
These are not predictions – not some kind of Crystal ball gazing

5. STEEP Sociological Technology Environmental Economic Political
Scenarios 2018
STEEP
Sociological
Technology
Environmental
Economic
Political
These are not predictions – not some kind of Crystal ball gazing

6. Scenarios planning – a series of what ifs, and what might be

7. We started this process in 2012 with a diverse team of experts in world issues as well as subject matter experts external to Herman Miller to share their point-of-view on the future of work in 2018 and engage them at multiple points in time via workshops and interviews.
We reached out to experts in anthropology, sociology, entrepreneurship, technology, design, economics, business and education.
We have used the Scenario Planning process over the last few months while going through a rigorous research process.

8. Scenario Planning allows us to: 1)take the long view (look to six years in the future) ; 2)use outside-in thinking (looking from a world view to implications to work)( Note: Thinking broadly about the changes occurring in the world and Social, Technology, Economic, Environment, and Political (STEEP)trends. Then drilling down to what it means to the focal question: (in our case) How will work change? ); 3) partner with external expertise and encourage multiple perspectives (global, cross-cultural, and generational, expertise).
To bring in multiple perspectives we invited experts not only from the top institutions like MIT and UC Berkley but also experts on various topics like politics and business from Hong Kong and Amsterdam

9. Scenarios 2018
Scenario Stories
We also sent these scenarios to journalists around the world get their perspective
Data Sphere
Polarised World
New Normal

15. Scenarios 2018
Propositions

16. [Today using networks of people, we pull together groups of people both inside and outside our organization to work on projects for a period of time and then disband—the Hollywood model. In the future, people will work for multiple employers at one time, often as members of fluid, self-selected tribes, that offer collective expertise to organizations. For individuals, your networks give you status and access, and your reputation is the new currency. For organizations, porous boundaries, fewer traditional employees (perhaps with core functions still in-house), and different reporting structures become new realities.]
3. Swarm-focused Work: Ever more work is open platform and enabled by digital networks, disrupting organizational boundaries and traditional ways of accomplishing work. (Swarm = fluid, self-selected “tribes” of people)
Meaning: [Note: Swarm: Collective group with a purpose] Think of this as the manifestation of crowd-sourcing, open innovation and contracting relationships. It takes the Hollywood model of work - pulling together groups of individuals both inside and outside the organization to work on projects and then disband forward to the notion that in the future, people will work for multiple employers at one time, often as members of fluid, self-selected tribes that offer collective expertise to organizations. For individuals, your networks give you status and access, and your reputation is the new currency. For organizations, it could mean more porous boundaries with fewer traditional employees.
The average person that turns 30 years old in the U.S. today [2010] has worked 11 different jobs. In just 10 years, the average person who turns 30 will have worked different projects. (Source: ”Business Colonies: A study of structure, organization, and the evolution of work,”Futurist Speaker blog produced by Google's top-rated futurist speaker, Thomas Frey, November, 2012)
In 2018, we could imagine…
The workplace is open platform. The “sponsor” of the work will “post” it to a platform that will make it known the work is available. A self-organized group will form and deliver the results. Workers swarm from one group to another. Clusters/swarms have more value – high risk/high gain. The impact on corporate culture and branding could be significant. Corporate environments could become more of a “hackathon” type of space, or a “makerspace” enabled by digital platforms. Organizations will come to rely more and more on fluid relationships with individuals and groups outside their corporate boundaries to get work done. There may be fewer people working for organizations.

17. [The physical is becoming increasingly integrated with the virtual; networks of people connecting with each other are no exception. With Skype, Facetime, and Instagram the quality of visual engagement will continue to improve the effectiveness of the social web in business and for pleasure. Businesses will come to look at networks as a highly valuable asset, resulting in conflicts over ownership. Your digital networks will become more important career and organizational assets than the circle of people and colleagues you’ve met.]
2. Digitally-mediated Relationships: New ways of building relationships through the increasing sophistication, availability, and intuitive operation of virtual social networks are the default modality at work and central to most human interaction.
Meaning: The key words here are “default modality.” With Skype, Facetime, and Instagram, the quality of visual engagement will continue to improve the effectiveness of the social web in business and for pleasure. Businesses will come to look at digital networks as a highly valuable asset. Today, we often use Google to get the information we need. In the future, we will put more trust in our digital social networks and it will be the FIRST place we go to for answers. That level of trust will make our networks become the default.
In 2018, we could imagine…
Total workplace design, workstation design, meeting room design taking into account and supporting this default modality of work - virtual relationships and digital experiences. More screens, more support for mobile tools, more places for a quick moment of privacy, more places for people to work together via technology, and so on, not to mention accommodation of new technologies we can’t begin to imagine today. In addition to place supporting this behavior, workers will need to change their behavior to one of embracing digital connections with co-workers and others as a default modality of work.

18. Scenarios 2018
Propositions

19. “Chance favours the prepared mind”
Louis Pasteur
“Chance favours the prepared mind”