1. University of Latvia Faculty of Geography and Earth Sciences
Preparing for 2021 Census: Use of the individual administrative data for profiling of the Latvian emigrants
Phd student Sigita Šulca
18. – 19. October
Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders 2018
Bamberg,Germany

2. Outline of the presentation
Research aim and questions
Emigration trends from Latvia
Data and methods
Literature review
Results
Conclusions

3. Research aim
To construct a demographic and socio-economic profile of the modern Latvian emigrant using administrative data at the individual level.

4. Research questions
How many persons emigrated from different demographic and socio – economic groups?
Which territories lost more population (which groups)?
Destination of the typical Latvian emigrant?

5. Emgiration trends from Latvia
Latvia - from thousand emigration cases (according to Central Statistical Bureu of Latvia)
International long-term migration; 1990–2017

6. Data at individual level Combination from different data sources
Data and methods
Emigrants of 2014 – 2016
Data at individual level
Combination from different data sources
Population Register of the Office of Citizenship and Migration Affairs
Ministry of Education and Science
32 higher education institutions
Using SPSS exploratory data analysis and descriptive statistics

7. Literature review
Methods for measuring of the migration (Chiswick 1978; Massey 1993; Stark 1991; Poulain et al. 1993; DeSipio 1996; Hill 1997; Portes1997; BretteIl 1981; Montello 2001; Krišjāne, et al. 2007; Mieriņa et al etc).
Migrant profiles – methods, data sources, data analysis, advantages and disadvantages of the methods (Kertzer and Hogan 1989; Baganha 1990; Poulain et al. 1993; Kurekova 2011; Grabowska-Lusinska 2013; King 2015; Lulle 2016; Waren., Kerwin 2017 etc)

8. Results: regionality of emigration

9. Results
The majority of emigrants from regions are aged 25 to 29 with the exception of Riga where the majority of emigrants are aged 25 to 34;

10. Citizenship of emigrants by regions; 2016

11. Marital status and the family composition 2014 - 2016

12. Destination of Latvian emigrants 2014 - 2016

13. Proportion of emigrants and usual residents by level of education, % (18+)

14. Most typical modern Latvian emigrant
young (25-29 years old),
unmarried
Latvian man
from Kurzeme or Latgale region
secondary education

15. Conclusions
The largest proportion of population have emigrated from western part Kurzeme (1.2%), but the highest number of emigrants is registered from eastern part Latgale.
Emigrant profiles in Latvia mostly differ between core and peripheral territories.
Overall, Latvia is loosing young men with secondary education and young women with university degree – arises risk to upcoming labor shortages and high risk for demography in future.
Administrative data is an exhaustive and convenient tool, but they should be analyzed carefully, taking into account different influences from artificial “signs of life”.

16. Further steps
The results will be compared with the outputs of surveys on migration
Profiling will be completed with occupational, employment and income indicators
Emigrant profiles will help:
to predict the probability of emigration from the geographic, demographic and socio - economic perspective;
to develop policy planning proposals on reduction of emigration;
to design and implement socio - economic, fiscal, labour policy.

17. Thank you for attention!

18. Sources
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