1. Prof. Ken Laudon IOMS Department NYU Stern School of Business
Occupational and Industry Employment Outlook for IS and IS-Related Business School Graduates
Prof. Ken Laudon
IOMS Department
NYU Stern School of Business

2. Population Overview: 2002-2012
U.S. population increases by 24 million
Slow down in rate of growth from previous decades
Youth (16-24) grow by 7%
Middle age (55-64) grow 43%
Young adult (35-44) decrease in size!
Elderly (65-100) grow by 65%

3. Labor Force Overview: 2002-2012
Civilian labor force expands 12% by 17.4 million new workers
Total employment expands 14.8% to 165 million from 144 million
Adding 21.6 million new jobs
20.8 million new jobs in service providing industries, only 1.6 million in goods producing industries

4. Industry Sector Employment Outlook: Services
Education and health services
Professional and business services
Information
Leisure and hospitality
Other
Trade, transportation, utilities
Financial services
Government
Employment in the information supersector is expected to increase by 18.5 percent, adding 632,000 jobs by Information contains some of the fast-growing computer-related industries such as software publishers; Internet publishing and broadcasting; and Internet service providers, Web search portals, and data processing services. Employment in these industries is expected to grow by 67.9 percent, 41.1 percent, and 48.2 percent, respectively. The information supersector also includes telecommunications, broadcasting, and newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishers. Increased demand for residential and business land-line and wireless services, cable service, high-speed Internet connections, and software will fuel job growth among these industries.

5. Industry Sector Employment Outlook: Services
Education and health services
Professional and business services
Information
Leisure and hospitality
Other
Trade, transportation, utilities
Financial services
Government

6. Choosing the Right Sector: Bottom Line
Like choosing the right asset class
The best job opportunities in both growth and numbers are found in:
Education and health services
Professional and business services (consulting)
Trade
Government
Information sector
IS/IT is important in all these areas

7. Occupational
Outlook

8. Technical total new jobs + replacement hires 2005-2012= 600,000 jobs
Managerial total new jobs+ replacement hire = 150,000
Growth rates ~ 5%  6% annually. Forecast period growth= +30%
Data Source: Occupational Outlook Handbook, “Computer Systems Analysts, Database Administrators, and Computer Scientists”, and
“Computer and Information Systems Managers,” Table source: Ken Laudon

9. Indian Outsourcing Worst Case 2005-2012
Worst case: top Indian firms continue to grow at 12-18% annually
Total new outsourced jobs all from US market= 300,000+ in 2012

10. Most Likely Indian Outsourcing Scenario: 2005-2012
More likely scenario: 10% annual growth rate in Indian outsourcing firms
due to wage labor inflation (14% in 2005) and competition from China,
Middle East, and East European countries grows. Total Indian outsourced
jobs= 216,000 in 2012

11. Indian outsourcing will play an important but small role in meeting the overall demand in the US for IS/IT personnel in technical jobs, and an even smaller role in IS managerial jobs

12. US IS/IT Jobs Forecast Wrap Up
US IT/IS jobs will grow at 5-6% over the period, about 1.5x the GDP growth
Growth driven by falling capital costs in IT/IS sector, more powerful hardware and software, and relatively stable IS/IT wage rates
Technical jobs which can become routinized and commoditized suffer the greatest risk of outsourcing to low wage countries
Managerial jobs, and those technical jobs which require hands-on, judgmental, creative, and design skills are much less likely to be outsourced

13. US IS/IT Jobs Forecast Wrap Up
The number of jobs outsourced to India will most likely expand at about 10% annually
Mostly technical, routinized, and commoditized positions
Indian outsourcing will fall from 18% growth down to 10% due to rising wage rates (14%) and competition from even lower wage countries
Indian outsourcers will be forced to move up the value chain of informational/knowledge value in order to grow.
They face a number of constraints in this area such as location, culture, and sensitivity to US markets. Not all English is American.
While India has a population of 1+ billion people, its supply of educated, trained software engineers is more limited than expected because of lack of development throughout the country.

14. US IS/IT Jobs Forecast Wrap Up
Eastern Europe will expand to challenge Ireland as source of outsourcing, but faces wages issues and security issues
China will emerge as a major outsourcing provider for Indian firms outsourcing to cheaper wage markets.

15. Today’s Message From Robert Half Agency
Ken,
It was great speaking to you. Best of luck with the presentation. One key focus that I would focus on is the necessity of being able to communicate how their efforts and projects effect the bottom line of the company they are working for.
Sincerely, Colin O'Neill
Account Executive
Robert Half Technology