1. DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Utah Economy
Summary and Insights

2. Summary Prosperous time Trends to watch Insights But slowing…
Fertility
Housing
Utah County
Insights
Next downturn?
Follow the nation…

3. DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Prosperous Time

4. Job Growth by State November 2017-2018, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

5. Annual percent change in jobs
Utah Economic Cycles
Annual percent change in jobs
August 2012 – August 2013
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
U N I V E R S I T Y of U T A H • D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L of B U S I N E S S

6. Job Growth Year-over percent change in non-farm jobs
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services

7. Utah Job Growth by Industry
November
Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services

8. DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Trends to Watch

9. Oh mother, where are thou?
Total Fertility for Utah and the United States
Total fertility rate
Source: National Center for Health Statistics

10. Utah Housing Shortage Households Exceed Units by 50,800 2011-2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Ivory-Boyer Construction Database.

11. Utah Net Migration
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, Utah Population Committee

12. Income Not Keeping Pace w/ Home Prices
Percent change in median income and housing prices in Utah
Source: UtahRealEstate.com and U.S. Census Bureau.

13. Utah’s Silicon Slopes Corridor
Key Stats
25 miles
17 cities
74,744 net new jobs since 2010
283,702 total jobs
37% of increase in jobs statewide
Annual growth averages 6.9%
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

14. States with Most Robust Job Growth
With and without Utah County -- August 2017 – August 2018
Source: Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of Utah Dept. of Workforce Services and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data

15. Employment: Western Metros
Source: Moody’s Analytics

16. DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Insights

17. My thoughts…
A little honesty – We can’t predict the timing of an economic cycle.
Durability – Current expansion will turn 10 years old in June.
Recession watch – Gov. Herbert won’t let his staff use the “R” word.
Coming into view – Even still, the next downturn is coming into view.
Keep eye on nation – Utah will follow national economy, but do better.
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

18. Annual Job Growth Utah and the U.S.
Note: e=estimate
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

19. Gross Domestic Product by Industry: 2017
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

20. Utah Economic Cycles and Recessions
Annual percent change in jobs
August 2012 – August 2013
Stagflation;
Monetary Policy
9/11, Dot.Com,
Post-Oly
Great
Recession
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
U N I V E R S I T Y of U T A H • D A V I D E C C L E S S C H O O L of B U S I N E S S

21. Inversion Season Difference between short- and long-term rates
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

22. Fiscal Policy Federal budget deficit $ Billions (L)
Share of GDP, % (R)
Source: BEA, Moody’s Analytics

23. Animal Spirits Index
Note: Index includes S&P 500 index, Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, yield spread and economic policy uncertainty index. Source is Wells Fargo Securities.

24. Utah CEOs less optimistic What is your expectation for the economy six months from now?
Source: Utah CEOutlook Confidence Index

25. What to watch Rising costs/”Labor, lots and lending” Risk taking
Policy steps/mis-steps
Spending and deficits
Trade policies
Immigration policies
Political chaos
Exogenous shocks
Brexit
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

26. Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
David Eccles School of Business | 411 E. South Temple Street Salt Lake City, UT | | gardner.utah.edu
Facebook.com/gardnerpolicyinstitute | Twitter.com/KemGardnerInst | LinkedIn