1. The Scientific Process
Research Question
Theory and Hypotheses
Research Design
Operationalization (measurement)
Empirical Observation and Analysis

2. II. The Research Question, Theory and Hypotheses
Chapter 3 (JRM);
Chapters 4-5 (LeRoy – Exercises due Monday 1/25)

3. Participation Quiz #1
Directions: On a sheet of paper, answer the following questions. Be sure to include the date and your name/student number on your quiz.
1. What is a “dependent variable”?
2. What is one characteristic of a good hypothesis, according to your text?

4. The Research Question A “scientific” research question
Subject to empirical investigation
Avoid normative questions
normative: value-laden, evaluative, “ought” or “should”, prescriptive
Non-normative: factual, objective
Avoid purely “factual” questions
Ask questions which can be answered in causal terms (“why” & “how” questions)

5. The Research Question A personal choice
Should be inspired by existing literature
Something “important”
Basic vs. Applied research
Most Important: Something that you find interesting!

6. What is a Scientific Theory?
A set of assumptions involving a set of interrelated concepts from which a causal statement(s) can be derived. These assumptions and causal statement(s) constitute an explanation for the phenomenon under investigation.

7. What is a Scientific Theory?
“A reasoned and precise speculation about the answer to a research question, including a statement about why the proposed answer is correct.” Must have “observable implications.”

8. Good Theories…
Can be generalized far beyond the specific data being analyzed
Are not TOO abstract
Are falsifiable

9. Concepts and Theories Concepts are the “building blocks” of theories
Def: A concept is an abstraction representing an object, a property of an object, or a certain phenomenon.
Examples?

10. Examples: Political participation, socioeconomic status, party competition, welfare generosity, level of democracy, strength of civil society, level of political violence

11. Example of a (Simple) Theory What is the effect of negative advertising on political participation?
Let’s say we believe negative advertising has an impact…
How would you put together a theory on this concept?

12. Example of a (Simple) Theory What is the effect of negative advertising on political participation?
Higher levels of exposure to negative advertising lead to lower levels of political trust because voters gradually become disenchanted with all political candidates. As trust is eroded, we should expect to see lower levels of political participation.

13. Some Important Theories in Political Science
Costs/Benefits of Voting
The Democratic Peace
Median Voter Theory

14. The Calculus of Voting Assumptions:
Voters are rational; vote when the benefits of voting exceed the costs
Pr(Vote) = Benefit of voting – cost of voting + random error

15. Pr(Vote) = Benefit of voting – cost of voting + random error
Hypotheses:
Turnout will be highest:
When perceived ideological distance between candidates is large
When perceived support for each candidate is roughly equal
Among voters with a higher level of education
Among voters who display high levels of attachment to the political system (trust, efficacy)

16. The “Democratic Peace”
What is it?

17. The “Democratic Peace”
The democratic peace theory (or liberal peace theory or simply the democratic peace) holds that democracies — usually, liberal democracies — never go to war with one another.
They participate in wars as often as non-democracies, maybe even more often, but never with each other.
Closest thing to a “law” that we have in international relations.
Normative and Structural Models for why this is.

18. The “Democratic Peace” (from Maoz and Russett, APSR 1993)
The Normative Model

19. The “Democratic Peace” (from Maoz and Russett, APSR 1993)
Observable implication:
Democracies are much less likely to go to war with one another (although will go to war with nondemocracies)
- The longer a state has been democratized the less likely it should be to engage in conflict with another democracy or democratizing state.

20. The “Democratic Peace” (from Maoz and Russett, APSR 1993)
The Structural Model

21. The “Democratic Peace” (from Maoz and Russett, APSR 1993)
Observable implication:
Democracies are much less likely to go to war with one another
The more structural checks and balances built into a democratic political system (ex. presidential democracies vs parliamentary democracies), the less likely a democracy is to engage other democracies.

22. What explains the positions parties take during an election
What explains the positions parties take during an election? Median Voter Theory
Assumptions
Voter preferences can be summarized as falling somewhere on a liberal-conservative (left-right) ideological scale
In a 2-party system, voters choose the party which most closely reflects their policy preferences
Parties are solely motivated to win elections

23. Median Voter Theory

24. Median Voter Theory Observable Implications
In a 2-party system, the party that locates itself closest to the median position will win
In 2-party systems, parties will compete with one another by converging toward the median position

25. Theories and Hypotheses
A hypothesis is a testable statement of causal relationship between two variables, derived from theory
For directional variables, relationships expressed in hypotheses may be either positive or negative

26. Concepts vs. Variables Concept Variable Highly abstract
Can represent a variety of things
Variable
Generally more specific/observable
Takes on at least 2 values/categories that vary across the units/cases in our analysis

27. Causal Relationship
Change in one variable causes change in another variable

28. Dependent vs. Independent Variable
Dependent variable – what we are trying to explain
Independent variable – explains variation in dependent variable

29. Good Hypotheses…
Are the logical implication of the theory being tested
Are stated in explicit, empirical terms
Can be generalized to different contexts
Are plausible
Clearly specify a relationship between an IV & DV

30. Directional Hypotheses
Apply to cases where IV and DV are orderable (directional) variables
Positive relationship:
As one’s education increases, the probability of voting increases
There is a positive relationship between one’s education level and voting
As the number of different ethnic groups in state increase, the probability of civil ware increases.
There is a positive relationship between a state’s ethnic fractionalization and civil war.

31. Directional Hypotheses (cont’d)
Negative relationship:
As the number of hours of negative ads watched increases, the probability that an individual will vote decreases
There is a negative relationship between exposure to negative advertising and the probability that an individual will vote
As the level of democracy within a state increases, the probability of civil war decreases.
There is a negative relationship between democracy and civil war.

32. Non-Directional Hypotheses
Appropriate for variables that are not orderable
Hypothesis describes comparison among categories
Examples
Men have greater levels of support for President Bush than do women
Whites are most likely to be Republican, while African-Americans are most likely to be Democrat
Democracies have higher GDPs than Non-Democracies.

33. The Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis states that there is no relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable
Hypothesis: There is a positive relationship between exposure to negative ads and turnout
Null hypothesis: There is no relationship between negative ads and turnout

34. Specifying the Unit of Analysis
Def: “The social entities whose characteristics are the focus of study.”
May include individuals, groups, programs, organizations and institutions, cities, states, nations, etc.
Individual vs. Aggregate level of analysis
Ecological Inference / Fallacy
Mixing levels in a hypothesis

35. Unit of Analysis
Ecological Inference - The use of aggregate data to study the behavior of individuals.
Ecological Fallacy – Using information that shows a relationship for groups to infer that the same relationship exists for individuals when the relationship is untrue.
Mixing Levels in a hypothesis – The more education a person has the more democratic his state is.

36. What is the unit of analysis?
There is a negative relationship between the number of negative ads broadcast in a state and state turnout rate in the presidential election

37. What is the unit of analysis?
There is a negative relationship between exposure to negative advertising and the probability that a person will vote.

38. What is the unit of analysis?
There is a positive relationship between the level of wealth in a country and the level of democracy
There is a negative relationship between a basketball team’s shooting percentage and its winning percentage

39. What is the unit of analysis?
As a country becomes more democratic over time, that country becomes has increasing levels of economic development and education.