1. California Housing Market Update
Monthly Sales and Price Statistics
November 2018

2. Home Sales: Largest Decline Since 2014
California, November 2018 Sales: 381,400 Units, -4.6% YTD, -13.4% YTY
Nov-17: 440,340
Nov-18: 381,400
Peak:624,957 units in 2005
Valley:189,345 units in 1982
2012 annual sales up 4.3% from 2011
2011 annual sales up 1.4% from 2010
2010 annual sales down 12.3% from 2009
2009 annual sales up 24.5% from 2008
2008 annual sales up 30.4% from 2007
2007 annual sales down 33.4% from 2006
2006 annual sales down 23.8% from 2005
2005 annual sales up 0.8% from 2004
2004 annual sales up 3.8% from 2003
2003 annual sales up 7.6% from 2002
2002 annual sales up 14.1% from 2001
2001 annual sales down 4.7% from 2000 YTD
2000 annual sales up 1.4 from 1999
1999 sales up 7.3% over 1998
10/93: 41.0
Consumer Confidence
01/00:
03/03: 63.0
5/07: 128.4
2/09: 23.9
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

3. CA Home Sales: Declining Trend
Data from historical file
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized 3

4. Bay Area Sales: Double-Digit Decline
Data from historical file
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
*Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized 4

5. So CA Home Sales Off Double-Digits
YoY % chg.
Data from historical file
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
*Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized 5

6. Central Valley Sales: Declining Trend
YoY % chg.
Data from historical file
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
*Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized 6

7. Sales Declined in All Price Segments
November 2018 (Year-to-Year)
Data found in MPPA
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

8. YTY Home Price Gains Moderating
California, November 2018: $554,760, -3.0% MTM, +1.5% YTY
Nov-18: $554,760
Nov-17: $546,820
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

9. Prices Growth Slowing From historical
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

10. Condo/Townhome Median Price Leveling Off
Nov-18: $465,770
Nov-17: $451,250
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

11. CA Median Price Monthly Change
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® 11

12. Evidence of Softening Prices at Upper – End
From Jordan
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

13. List Price Suggests a Bounce Back in Sales Price Growth in the Near Term
SERIES: Sales Price Growth and List Price Growth of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

14. 42.5% Listings Have Price Reductions
Share of Listings with Price Reduction: 42.5%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.4%
From Jordan
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

15. Price Per Square Flat MTM
November 2018: $282, Down 0.0% MTM, Up 1.8% YTY
Nov-18: $282
Nov-17:
$277
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

16. Sales-to-List Price Ratio Dropping
November 2018: 97.9%, -0.2% MTM, -1.0% YTY
Nov-17: 98.9%
Nov-18: 97.9%
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

17. Biggest Drop at High – End
From Jordan
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

18. Time on Market Up as the Market Slows
November 2018: 28.0 Days
Range since 1988:
Low days in May 2004
High – 93 days in Feb 1993
SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

19. Median Time on Market by Percentile
From Jordan
SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

20. Inventory Index on the Rise
November 2017: 2.9 Months; November 2018: 3.7 Months
Range since 1988:
Low: 1.3 months in May 2004
High: 18.8 months in Apr 1991
Long-run average: 6.9 months
Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

21. Active Listings Up 8th Consecutive Month
Data from Sales vs Listings
SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

22. Listings Up Across the Board, Except Under $200K
Nov 2018
Data from UIPR
SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

23. Inventory Growing as Sales Fall
Data from historical
Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

24. Active Listings Increased in All Regions
Data from sales vs listings
SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

25. Active Listings Increased in All Regions
Nov 2018
Data from sales vs listings
SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

26. Inventory Index Highest at Upper End
Data from UIPR
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

27. 56,126 Listings in Nov vs. 42,841 Last Year
From Jordan