1. GARNET VALLEY SCHOOL DISTRICT

2. George Sundell, Principal Demographer
Sundance Associates
George Sundell, Principal Demographer
45 years directing Facilities Planning Projects
20 Years of Demographic Consulting
Enrollment projections for K-12 Public School Districts
Expertise
Regional District Studies
Regionalization/Withdrawal Studies
Accelerated Residential Construction
Impact of Charter Schools
Closure-Reorganization of Parochial Schools
Redistricting
Redistricting for changing enrollment utilizing GIS Mapping
Camden City; 12,500 students, 24 schools, PK-12
Cherry Hill; 11,300 students, 15 schools, PK-12
Edison Township; 14,000 students, 16 schools, PK-12
Tredyffrin-Easttown; 6,000 students, 8 schools, K-12

3. Enrollment Projections
Cohort Survival Methodology or Grade Level Progression
Primarily based on Historic Enrollments & Birth Rates
Acceptable Modifications through Certified Demographers Report
Planning Sciences
Statistical Analysis

4. Modifications to Projections
Charter, Private & Parochial School Status
School Choice Programs
Changes in Curriculum or OOD Students
Seasonal Fluctuations
Impact of additional housing beyond the historic average
Housing Mix : Types and Number of Bedrooms Multipliers for Public School Children by housing type and number of bedrooms
Recovery from Recession Level Resales

5. Municipalities and District
Concord ES ALL K and Gr 1-2
GarnetValley ES
Gr 3-5
Bethel Springs Gr 1-5
3 Municipalities
5 Schools
3 Elementary (2 associated)
1 Middle
1 High
4,809 Students (Oct 2016)

6. Public & Private School Attendance Share 2013-15
GVSD attendance is 9% above Delaware County and 4% above Pennsylvania

7. Population Growth

8. 2010 Age & Gender Pyramid Male Female Childbearing Age 20-39 years old
Fewer children

9. 2010 Age & Gender Pyramid Male Female Childbearing Age 20-39 years old
Fewer children

10. 2010 Age & Gender Pyramid
Male
Female
Childbearing Age
20-39 years old

11. Population by Age Group
Type Age Percents
Pre-School Pre-School 6.28% 8.43% 5.61%
School Age , ,926 School Age 18.23% 23.11% 21.91%
Childbearing , ,711 Childbearing 33.96% 28.33% 19.46%
Middle Age ,035 1,493 3,528 Middle Age 30.93% 31.69% 40.13%
Seniors ,133 Seniors 10.60% 8.44% 12.89%
3,330 6,421 8, % 100% 100%
Type
Age
1990
2000
2010
Percents
Pre-School
0-4
209
332
541
-48
493
6.28%
8.43%
5.61%
School Age
5-17
607
877
1,484
442
1,926
18.23%
23.11%
21.91%
Childbearing
18-39
1131
688
1,819
-108
1,711
33.96%
28.33%
19.46%
Middle Age
40-64
1030
1005
2,035
1,493
3,528
30.93%
31.69%
40.13%
Seniors
65 +
353
189
542
591
1,133
10.60%
8.44%
12.89%
3,330
6,421
8,791
100%
Population by Age Group

12. Population by Age Group

13. Population by Age Group

14. Annual Births by Municipality

15. District Births by School Year
Cohort Survival Projection uses the186 Average of 5 Years
5-Year Trend is for 1 fewer births each year

16. Residential Permitting
From 2008 to 2012 Permitting averaged 43 units per year

17. Residential Permitting
Residential Permitting over the next 5 years may increase to 231 units in 2019.

18. Future Residential Permitting
489 Approved units in the next 5 years
of which 263 units are Age-Restricted
from 9 projects
An additional 352 units not approved
from 3 projects
841 total units in a mix of Single and Multi-Family developments
Developers were contacted to determine their planned build-out schedules

19. Public School Age Children from Future Residential Construction
112 new students in the next 5 years from approved housing
An additional 101 possible new students from “near approval” housing
Total is possible 213 new students

20. Location of Public School Age Children from Future Residential Construction

21. Demographics Summary
Private & Parochial School Enrollment is not impacting
Charter & Choice School Enrollment is not impacting
Population is stable in all municipalities
Youngest Age Groups are increasingly smaller
Childbearing Age population decreased
6-Year Birth Trend decreasing by 1 per year
Middle Age and Senior Age populations increasing or stable
489 to 841 new housing units may generate between additional students

22. Cohort Survival Method
DATA ENTRY:
Births
Historic Enrollments

23. Cohort Survival Method
Births
Historic Enrollments
CALCULATIONS: Birth to Kindergarten Survival Ratio (S/R)
Y2Y Grade Level S/Rs

24. Cohort Survival Method
Births
Historic Enrollments Birth to Kindergarten Survival Ratio (S/R)
Y2Y Grade Level S/Rs
5 Year Avg S/R

25. Cohort Survival Projection
Births
Historic Enrollments Birth to Kindergarten Survival Ratio (S/R)
Y2Y Grade Level S/Rs
5 Year Avg S/R
Projections for 5 Years

26. Cohort Survival Ratios
Grade to Grade Survival Ratios
Green bars are ratios > 1.0 and generate increasing enrollment, particularly at the elementary level
Red bars are ratios < 1.0 and
generate decreasing enrollments beginning in 6th to 7th Grade
1.080

27. Cohort Growth
1.080

28. District-wide Enrollment Projections
213 PSAC from new housing with an increase of 324 students in 5 years

29. Elementary K-Gr 5 Enrollment Projections
98 Elem PSAC added with an increase of 442 students in 5 years

30. Middle School Gr 6-8 Enrollment Projections
49 Middle School PSAC added with an overall period decrease of students in 5 years

31. High School Gr 9-12 Enrollment Projections
65 High School PSAC added with a decrease of students in 5 years

32. Bethel Springs Gr 1-5 Enrollment Projections
10 new PSAC added with a 99 student increase in 5 years

33. Concord ES Gr K-2 Enrollment Projections
44 new PSAC added with an increase of 167 students in 5 years

34. Garnet Valley Gr 3-5 Enrollment Projections
44 new PSAC added with an increase of 135 students

35. 5-Year Enrollment Projections Summary
5-Year Projected
District
Steadily increases 324 students by 2021 Includes 213 students from new housing
K- Gr 5
Increases 442 students
Includes 98 students from new housing
Gr 6-8
Decreases by 50 students
Includes 49 students from new housing
Gr 9-12
Decreases by 67 students
Includes 65 students from new housing

36. 5-Year Enrollment Projections Elementary Summary
5-Year Projected
Bethel Springs Gr -5
Increases 99 students
Includes 10 students from new housing
Concord Gr K-2
Increases 167 students
Includes 44 students from new housing
Garnet Valley
Gr 3-5
Increases 135 students

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