1. Purpose of TDR Market Analysis To determine whether and where there is demand for development over and above whats permitted by baseline zoning How that demand can be harnessed to conserve land While providing an economic incentive for desired development

2. Potential Receiving Areas Analyzed Bayview Ridge Urban Growth Area City of Burlington Rural Upzones

3. Bayview Ridge Urban Growth Area Bonus units of residential density in BR-R (from 4 to 6du/a) Rezones from BR-Urban Reserve to BR- Residential Industrial Development

4. City of Burlington Additional residential development in Commercial/Mixed Use zones Opportunities for additional Commercial intensity

5. Rural Upzones CPAs/Rezones resulting in additional residential development potential For example: from Rural Reserve (1 du/10 acres) to Rural Intermediate (1 du/2.5 acres, or 4 du/10 acres)

6. Preliminary conclusions In short-term (1-5 years), development not likely to generate significant number of TDR transactions. Demand down due to Great Recession Significant residential zoning exists in Burlington and Bayview Ridge UGA

7. Nearest opportunities The nearest - term TDR market opportunities may be for additional units of residential density in: The Bayview Ridge Residential (BR-R) zone, and Certain Mixed Use (Commercial/Residential) zones in Burlington.

8. Medium to long-term In the medium to long-term (5 – 20 years), consistent with the Countys and Burlingtons GMA planning horizons, more market potential will appear.

9. Medium to long-term As existing capacity in the BR-R zone and Burlington Mixed Use Zones is used up, And demand emerges to rezone additional land to or intensity those zones Skagit County and Burlington could require TDR purchase for future rezones or intensification

10. Rural upzones Few Rural Upzone proposals are considered/approved by County each year But, there may be significant TDR purchasing power associated with upzones which create high-value rural lots. This is another potential opportunity for a TDR purchase requirement.

11. Bayview Ridge Industrial Given the information currently available, there does not appear to be a ready opportunity to link TDR to Industrial development at Bayview Ridge

12. Burlington Commercial May be TDR opportunity in Burlington if city is willing to consider a Floor to Area Ratio (FAR) limit on commercial intensity Base FAR limit could be exceeded with a TDR purchase

13. Final phase of market analysis Will draw on preliminary findings Focus analysis on those areas and issues most useful in determining TDR feasibility and implementation in Skagit County

14. More precise data on: Developer ability-to-pay for TDR in receiving areas Estimated value of residential development rights in various potential sending site zones, and Recommended exchange ratios to make TDR transactions viable in the marketplace.

15. Transactions mechanisms Recommendations on what type of transaction mechanisms most viable in Skagit County given market conditions and desire to complement Farmland Legacy Program: Simple buyer-seller TDR bank Density credit fees

16. Bonus densities at Bayview Ridge Final phase of market analysis will provide essential market data for implementing bonus density provisions in BVR subarea plan and PUD ordinance