1. A Population Bomb? Thomas Malthus (1766-1834, England)
Pessimist
population would outrun food supply
decrease in food per person.
Assumptions
Populations grow exponentially.
Food supply grows arithmetically.
Food shortages and chaos inevitable.
Thomas Malthus ( , England)
-Felt population growing exponentially and resources growing linearly
*** Believed people needed to practice ”moral restraint” to lower CBR or
there needed to be a disaster to increase CDR in order to solve population problem

3. Neo-Malthusians
Maybe Malthus WAS on to something…builds upon Malthus
Food not only resource strained by population growth
Recognizes that population growth in LDC’s is from the transfer of medical talents from MDC’s (Docs w/o Borders) but not the wealth that would provide food and resources…would their growth be that high without this impact?
Population has outpaced economic growth
Sometimes technology does more hurt than good
Green Revolution (science applied to farming)

4. Neo-Malthusians (Supporters of Malthus)
Two recent issues that invigorate Malthus thought:
1. many countries experiencing population growth due to transfer of medical technology
2. new population “stripping” world of resources
Neo Malthusians
1) Ehrlich (1960s)
warned of a population bomb in 1970s and 1980s because the world’s population was outpacing food production.
No bomb, no starving! Could there still be something learned from Ehrlich’s thoughts?
2) Robert Kaplan and Thomas Fraser Homer-Dixon
“Survival of the Fittest” (Hunger Games!)

5. Critics of Malthus Critics of Malthus
Esther Boserup and Simon Kuznets-larger population would stimulate growth, will lead to the production of more food; more people=more consumers, more creativity
Julian Simon-more people=more brains
Friedrich Engels-(Marxist) believed that world has enough resources, if only those resources were shared equally (critic of Capitalism)-
Copeland-resources are not fixed, trade allows for potential elimination of possibilism

6. Ester Boserup on population
Optimist.
“Necessity is the mother of invention.”
Human growth stimulates agricultural intensification (Malthus upside-down)
More people=more minds=more innovation.
Opposite of Malthus

7. Malthus: Mid 1700’s Boserup: Mid 1900’s Malthus vs. Boserup
Think: Why do the dates make a difference in their theories of population?

8. What is the DTM?
Since the Industrial Revolution, a pattern of progress has been observed as countries develop
The DTM refers to the trend where populations move AWAY from High Birth and High Death Rates to Low Birth and Death Rates (more stable)
Countries move through STAGES as they develop which impacts their BR and DR and their population growth
Not all countries develop at the same rate so countries of the world are at different stages in the transition

10. Stage 1: Low Growth
Birth Rate is high as a result of:
Lack of family planning
High Infant Mortality Rate
Need for workers in agriculture
Religious beliefs
Children as economic assets
Death Rate is high because of:
High levels of disease
Famine
Lack of clean water and sanitation
Lack of health care
War
Competition for food from predators such as rats
Lack of education
CBR and CDR are both very high and relatively equal
RNI is almost ZERO
CBR and CDR widely change from year to year
Primarily seen in hunter- gatherer societies
NO COUNTRIES ARE HERE TODAY

11. Stage 2: High Growth CDR drops dramatically CBR still high
Death Rate is falling as a result of:
Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine)
Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled)
Improved sanitation
Improved food production and storage
Improved transport for food
Decreased Infant Mortality Rates
CDR drops dramatically
CBR still high
RNI increases rapidly
Life expectancy increases
Current Examples: Afghanistan, Many Sub-Saharan African countries

12. Stage 3: Moderate Growth/Late Expanding
Reasons:
Family planning available
Lower Infant Mortality Rate
Increased mechanization reduces need for workers
Increased standard of living
Changing status of women
CBR starts to decline
CDR continues to stay low
RNI is much slower growth
Current Examples: Mexico, Panama, South Africa, Chile, China, Brazil

13. Latin America
Most countries in Latin America have moved to Stage 3 in recent years
Medical technology reaching Latin countries in late 20th century pushed them into stage 3
“Chile’s rural society underwent urbanization in the 1960s causing them to move into stage 3 . However, most Chileans still prefer large families so it will be some time before they move into stage 4.”

14. Stage 4: Low Growth Current Examples: Many European countries
Reasons for Change:
Women in workforce instead of home
Availability of Birth Control
Changes in leisure activity not suitable for couples with children (bars, travel)
Higher education levels
Pessimism about future
A country reaches this point when the CBR and CDR are low and almost equal
RNI of almost 0 (Zero Population Growth) or close to Negative Population Growth.
Current Examples:
Many European countries
United States
Canada

15. Europe Natural Growth: The Demographic Transition Model
Europe continues to experience slow natural growth (birth rates lower than or almost equal to death rates What stage is this? New Stage?
Immigration prevents population decline…
Where have we seen this?
Causes?
Effects?

16. Europe’s Population Implosion
Shrinking population rather than a growing population – below Zero Population Growth (ZPG)
Reaction to urbanization and the expense of raising children in urban/industrial societies
fertility rates in some countries have dropped below 2.1
Industrialization and urbanization usually move a country to the fourth stage of the demographic transition

17. Stage 5 Birth Rate falls lower than the Death Rate
Negative NIR—Shrinking population
Aging populations can put a strain on economies
Expensive to support a high dependence load
Examples of Countries in Stage 5 (very beginning)—Russia, Japan, Germany

19. Demographic Transition Model
Stage one: LOW GROWTH
Crude birth/death rate both high, cancels out growth
Stage two: HIGH GROWTH
Death rates lower, diffusion of medicine, better nutrition
Natural increase high because births still high
Stage three: MODERATE GROWTH
Typical of richer developed countries
Higher standards of living/education
Both birth and death start to decline
Stage Four: LOW-ZERO-NEGATIVE GROWTH
CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =
ZPG= Zero Pop. Growth
Demographic Transition Model

21. STRENGTHS of Demographic Transition Model
Shows changes over time well
It has worked well for European and North American industrialized countries
It has worked for some East Asian countries such as South Korea but this country has gone through the stages much quicker with the introduction of technology for industrialization and quick impact of medicine
The model can highlight certain events and be used for explanations (OCP)

22. WEAKNESSES of Demographic Transition Model
- Based on the experience of industrialized countries and forgets that a country can develop in other ways such as through a tourist industry
- The model assumes that the death rate falling in Stage 2 is due to industrial revolutions but this is now more due to medical care improvements (Red Cross)
- Some countries are developed but still have high birth rates – this is due to culture, religion, immigration and not evidence of a poor, less developed country
- Original model needs to change to include an unexpected Stage 5 or 6

23. Remember… Demographic Transition is not only dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out migration…hence the Demographic Equation!!!!

24. Demographic equation:
Calculates population change more accurately
Calculates births minus deaths plus (or minus) migration.