1. the gregory group January 25, 2019
State of the Housing Market: Sacramento
Sacramento Sierra Chapter/Appraisal Institute
January 25, 2019

2. Existing Home Analysis
The Gregory Group

3. Source: MLS, The Gregory Group

4. Source: MLS, The Gregory Group

5. Source: MLS, The Gregory Group

6. 2018 YTD = 1.8%
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7. Source: MLS, The Gregory Group

8. Source: MLS, The Gregory Group

9. Source: MLS, The Gregory Group

10. New-Home Analysis
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11. Source: The Gregory Group

12. Source: The Gregory Group

13. Source: The Gregory Group

14. Source: The Gregory Group
Top ten communities account for 82.3% of all new-home sales
There are no top ten community with an average price that is less than $400,000
Only four ten communities have an average price that is less than $500,000
© 2018 The Gregory Group
Source: The Gregory Group

15. Source: The Gregory Group
Greater than $700,000 = 0.48 sales per week
$500,000 - $700,000 = 0.64 sales per week
Less than $500,000 = 0.79 sales per week
© 2018 The Gregory Group
Source: The Gregory Group

16. Source: The Gregory Group

17. Source: The Gregory Group

18. New Home Sales By Price Range
Q4/2005
Q4/2018
252 Total Projects
174 Total Projects
38 Attached Projects (15.1%)
4 Attached Projects (2.3%)
65 Projects on Lots < 4,000 SF (25.8%)
62 Projects on Lots < 4,000 SF (35.6%)
17 Projects w/Average Price < $300,000 (6.7%)
2 Projects w/Average Price < $300,000 (1.2%)
34 Projects w/Average Price < $400,000 (19.5%)
© 2018 The Gregory Group
Source: The Gregory Group

19. Source: The Gregory Group

20. Source: The Gregory Group

21. Source: The Gregory Group
Lennar accounts for 23.8% of the market share!
The top ten builders account for 76.5% of the Sacramento Region market share
© 2018 The Gregory Group
Source: The Gregory Group

22. Source: FreddieMac, The Gregory Group
Greater than $600,000 = 0.50 sales per week
$500,000 - $600,000 = 0.73 sales per week
Less than $500,000 = 0.88 sales per week
© 2018 The Gregory Group
Source: FreddieMac, The Gregory Group

23. Source: US Census Bureau, The Gregory Group

24. Source: FreddieMac, The Gregory Group

25. Source: FreddieMac, The Gregory Group

26. Conclusions
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27. Sacramento Region (Six-County) Population Change 2017 - 2027
The greatest number of ageing baby-boomers will be in Sacramento County (an increase of 96,623 people during the next ten years), while Placer County will post the greatest 35 – 44 year old number growth (an increase of 14,346).
Ages 25 – 44 years:
99,407 person increase
15.8%
Ages 65 years and greater:
169,457 person increase
45.4%
© 2018 The Gregory Group
Source: California Department of Finance, The Gregory Group

28. Source: The Gregory Group

29. Source: California Department of Finance
© 2018 The Gregory Group
Source: California Department of Finance

30. © 2018 The Gregory Group
Source: California Employment Development Department, The Gregory Group

31. Median income in the Sacramento Region falls into three “bands”: El Dorado and Placer Counties at greater than $70,000, Sacramento and Yolo Counties at nearly $60,000 and Sutter and Yuba Counties at greater than $50,000.
© 2018 The Gregory Group
Source: California Employment Development Department, The Gregory Group

32. Source: MLS, The Gregory Group

33. Source: The Gregory Group
New Home Sales -- Projection
© 2018 The Gregory Group
Source: The Gregory Group

34. Source: The Gregory Group
New Home Price -- Projection
© 2018 The Gregory Group
Source: The Gregory Group

35. Real Estate Information and Consulting Services
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Real Estate Information and Consulting Services
Folsom
101 Parkshore Drive, Suite 100
Folsom, CA
(916)
Aliso Viejo
120 Vantis, Suite 300
Aliso Viejo, CA
(949)