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1 Prepared for Edge Fund Advisors THE ECONOMY AND THE OFFICE MARKETS OF WASHINGTON, BOSTON, NEW YORK, AND SAN FRANCISCO By Gregory H. Leisch, CRE Alexander (Sandy) Paul December 2, 2009
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THE NATIONAL ECONOMY
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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2009. U.S. PAYROLL JOB LOSSES HAVE MODERATED 200820092007
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LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS HAVE TURNED UP Leading Economic Indicator Index Source: The Conference Board, Delta Associates; December 2009. Note: 2004 = 100. 2008 2009 2007
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U.S. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS: PREDICTOR OF RECESSIONS END Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Claims (Four Week Moving Average) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2009. Peak in Initial Unemployment Claims Note: Through November 14, 2009.
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Unemployment Rate and Annualized GDP Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Delta Associates; December 2009. Percent Change in GDPUnemployment Rate Recession U.S. ECONOMIC TRENDS AND FORECAST
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Percent Change in GDPUnemployment Rate Recession Unemployment Rate and Annualized GDP Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Delta Associates; December 2009. U.S. ECONOMIC TRENDS AND FORECAST
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Unemployment Rate and Annualized GDP Change U.S. ECONOMIC TRENDS AND FORECAST Percent Change in GDPUnemployment Rate RecessionRecovery 32 months: Recession + Recovery 50 months: Recession + Recovery 51 months: Recession + Recovery Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Delta Associates; December 2009.
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Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Delta Associates; December 2009. U.S. PRODUCTIVITY IS HIGH 2003200420052006 2007 20082009
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U.S. CONSUMER SENTIMENT IS LOW Source: University of Michigan, Delta Associates; December 2009. * Through October 2009. Note: 1966 = 100
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Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Delta Associates; December 2009. U.S. PERSONAL SAVINGS RATE IS HIGH 20052006 2007 2008 2009
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THE WASHINGTON AREA REGIONAL ECONOMY
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PAYROLL JOB LOSSES - 23.9 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2009. LARGE METRO AREAS 12 MONTHS ENDING OCTOBER 2009 District of Columbia only = + 0.6
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Job Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2009. +22,600 -46,500 PAYROLL JOB CHANGE WASHINGTON METRO AREA 12 MONTHS ENDING OCTOBER 2009
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2007 Coincident Index Source: Dr. Stephen Fuller, Delta Associates; December 2009. 2008 2009 COINCIDENT INDEX OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS WASHINGTON METRO AREA
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PAYROLL JOB CHANGE + 40.4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2009. LARGE METRO AREAS JANUARY 31 THROUGH OCTOBER 31, 2009
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Source: Dr. Stephen Fuller, Delta Associates; December 2009. GRP = Gross Regional Product Core Industries % GRP Federal Government32% (Federal Procurement = 15% of total GRP) Technology16% Building Industry6% International Business5% Tourism / Hospitality2% Total Core Industries61% Other39% Total GRP100% CORE INDUSTRIES WASHINGTON METRO AREA 2008
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Source: Deutsche Bank, CNN, MSNBC, Bloomberg, NY Times, Delta Associates; December 2009. Total = $15.6 Federal Reserve FDIC Treasury Department HUD Stimulus Initiatives Bailout/Guarantee Initiatives FEDERAL BAILOUT/GUARANTEE INITIATIVES TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2008 - 2010
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Number of Jobs Source: Recovery.gov, Delta Associates; December 2009. *Delta Associates estimate based on state-wide job creation and regional population share. PROJECTED JOBS CREATED/SAVED THROUGH THE AMERICAN RECOVERY AND REINVESTMENT ACT WASHINGTON METRO AREA THROUGH 2011
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CREDIT CRISIS: IMPACTED SUBMARKETS? Financial Firms Mainly Located in: Tysons Corner Reston Bethesda / Chevy Chase Financial Recovery Agency Locations: CBD / East End NoMa Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor WASHINGTON METRO AREA Source: Delta Associates; December 2009.
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30-Year Annual Average = 47,600/Year Source: Dr. Stephen Fuller, Delta Associates; December 2009. Note: 2009 is estimated at -21,000 jobs. PAYROLL JOB CHANGE WASHINGTON METRO AREA Thousands of New Payroll Jobs
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5-Year Projected Average = 40,400/Year30-Year Annual Average = 47,600/Year Source: Dr. Stephen Fuller, Delta Associates; December 2009. Note: 2009 is estimated at -21,000 jobs. PAYROLL JOB CHANGE WASHINGTON METRO AREA Thousands of New Payroll Jobs
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THE WASHINGTON AREA OFFICE MARKET
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National Vacancy Rate: 14.0% OFFICE VACANCY RATES SELECT METRO AREAS THIRD QUARTER 2009 Overall Vacancy Rate Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009.
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OFFICE NET ABSORPTION SELECT METRO AREAS JANUARY – SEPTEMBER 2009 -0.5 Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009. Net Absorption (Millions of SF) Nation: negative 48 million SF
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OFFICE NET ABSORPTION WASHINGTON METRO AREA 1981 – THIRD QUARTER 2009 Net Absorption (Millions of SF) Long-Term Average = 7.9 MSF * Through 3 rd quarter 2009. Source: Delta Associates; December 2009.
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OFFICE SPACE UNDER DEVELOPMENT Millions of SF SELECT METRO AREAS SEPTEMBER 2009 Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009. Nation: 74 million SF at 44% pre-leased
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OFFICE SPACE DEMAND & DELIVERIES WASHINGTON METRO AREA SEPTEMBER 2009 – DECEMBER 2014 26.0 million SF Deliveries = Demand Total = 13.3 million SF U/C or U/R: 8.2 million SF Planned and may deliver by 12/14: 5.1 million SF Inside the Beltway Outside the Beltway = = Millions of Square Feet Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009.
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OFFICE VACANCY RATES INSIDE THE BELTWAY 2001 – 2014 Overall Vacancy Rate Metro Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009. Vacancy 9.6% 11.6% 11.2% 9.2% 7.9% 8.5% 9.1% 10.5% 13.2% 13.8% 13.1% 11.8% 10.3% 9.1% 10.4% 7.0% 12.5% Rent Equilibrium Zone = 7.9% to 8.1%
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10.2% 6.9% 13.0% OFFICE VACANCY RATES DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 2001 – 2014 Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009. Metro Vacancy 9.6% 11.6% 11.2% 9.2% 7.9% 8.5% 9.1% 10.5% 13.2% 13.8% 13.1% 11.8% 10.3% 9.1% Rent Equilibrium Zone = 7.4% to 7.6% Overall Vacancy Rate
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OFFICE RENT GROWTH PER YEAR WASHINGTON METRO AREA 2000 – 2014 Average of Past 15 Years: 3.8% Effective Rental Rate Change/SF/Yr. Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009.
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Source: Delta Associates; December 2009. Office 20132012201120102009 WHEN IS THE MARKETS SWEET SPOT? WASHINGTON METRO AREA = Market Transition = Landlord/Seller Market = Tenant/Buyer Market
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THE BOSTON AREA REGIONAL ECONOMY
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PAYROLL JOB LOSSES - 63.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2009. LARGE METRO AREAS 12 MONTHS ENDING OCTOBER 2009 City of Boston plus inner suburbs only = - 45.8
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Job Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2009. +11,400 -74,900 PAYROLL JOB CHANGE BOSTON METRO AREA 12 MONTHS ENDING OCTOBER 2009
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2007 Coincident Index Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Delta Associates; December 2009. 2008 2009 COINCIDENT INDEX OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS
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PAYROLL JOB CHANGE + 35.2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2009. LARGE METRO AREAS JANUARY 31 THROUGH OCTOBER 31, 2009
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Source: Dr. Stephen Fuller, Delta Associates; December 2009. GRP = Gross Regional Product Core Industries % GRP Technology14% Prof./Bus./Fin. Services10% Federal & State Government8% Medical & Education Services7% Construction6% Transportation & Warehousing4% Total Core Industries49% Other51% Total GRP100% CORE INDUSTRIES BOSTON METRO AREA 2008
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Number of Jobs Source: Recovery.gov, Delta Associates; December 2009. *Delta Associates estimate based on state-wide job creation and regional population share. PROJECTED JOBS CREATED/SAVED THROUGH THE AMERICAN RECOVERY AND REINVESTMENT ACT BOSTON METRO AREA THROUGH 2011
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30-Year Annual Average = 19,800/Year Source: Dr. Stephen Fuller, Delta Associates; October 2009. Note: 2009 is estimated at -55,200 jobs. PAYROLL JOB CHANGE BOSTON METRO AREA Thousands of New Payroll Jobs
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5-Year Projected Average = 14,800/Year30-Year Annual Average = 19,800/Year Source: Dr. Stephen Fuller, Delta Associates; October 2009. Note: 2009 is estimated at -55,200 jobs. PAYROLL JOB CHANGE BOSTON METRO AREA Thousands of New Payroll Jobs
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THE BOSTON AREA OFFICE MARKET
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National Vacancy Rate: 14.0% OFFICE VACANCY RATES SELECT METRO AREAS THIRD QUARTER 2009 Overall Vacancy Rate Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009.
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OFFICE NET ABSORPTION SELECT METRO AREAS JANUARY – SEPTEMBER 2009 -3.7 Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009. Net Absorption (Millions of SF) Nation: negative 48 million SF
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OFFICE NET ABSORPTION BOSTON METRO AREA 1981 – THIRD QUARTER 2009 Net Absorption (Millions of SF) Long-Term Average = 4.5 MSF * Through 3 rd quarter 2009. Source: Delta Associates; December 2009.
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OFFICE SPACE UNDER DEVELOPMENT Millions of SF SELECT METRO AREAS SEPTEMBER 2009 Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009. Nation: 74 million SF at 44% pre-leased
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OFFICE SPACE DEMAND & DELIVERIES BOSTON METRO AREA SEPTEMBER 2009 – DECEMBER 2014 9.0 million SF Deliveries = Demand Total = 6.7 million SF U/C or U/R: 3.2 million SF Planned and may deliver by 12/14: 3.5 million SF = = Millions of Square Feet Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009.
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OFFICE VACANCY RATES BOSTON METRO AREA 2001 – 2014 Overall Vacancy Rate Metro Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009. Vacancy 10.6% 14.0% 14.5% 13.4% 12.4% 9.6% 11.2% 10.0% 11.4% 12.0% 11.6% 11.1% 10.5% 9.7% 10.7% 9.7% 12.0% Rent Equilibrium Zone = 8.9% to 10.1% City of Boston = 7.6%
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OFFICE RENT GROWTH PER YEAR BOSTON METRO AREA 2000 – 2014 Average of Past 30 Years: 2.5% Effective Rental Rate Change/SF/Yr. Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009.
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Source: Delta Associates; December 2009. Office 20132012201120102009 WHEN IS THE MARKETS SWEET SPOT? BOSTON METRO AREA = Market Transition = Landlord/Seller Market = Tenant/Buyer Market
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THE NEW YORK AREA REGIONAL ECONOMY
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PAYROLL JOB LOSSES - 218.2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2009. LARGE METRO AREAS 12 MONTHS ENDING OCTOBER 2009 New York City only = - 109.9
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Job Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2009. +31,900 -250,100 PAYROLL JOB CHANGE NEW YORK METRO AREA 12 MONTHS ENDING OCTOBER 2009
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2007 Coincident Index Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Delta Associates; December 2009. 1992 = 100 2008 2009 COINCIDENT INDEX OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS NEW YORK CITY
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PAYROLL JOB CHANGE + 96.1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2009. LARGE METRO AREAS JANUARY 31 THROUGH OCTOBER 31, 2009
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Source: Delta Associates; December 2009. GRP = Gross Regional Product Core Industries % GRP Prof./Fin./Tech. Services14% Government10% Education & Health Services8% Manufacturing & Distribution6% Construction3% Tourism / Hospitality2% Total Core Industries45% Other55% Total GRP100% CORE INDUSTRIES NEW YORK METRO AREA 2008 Note: Core industry percentages do not total to 45% due to rounding.
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Number of Jobs Source: Recovery.gov, Delta Associates; December 2009. Note: Delta Associates estimate based on ratio of state-wide job creation and state-wide population to metro area population share. PROJECTED JOBS CREATED/SAVED THROUGH THE AMERICAN RECOVERY AND REINVESTMENT ACT NEW YORK METRO AREA THROUGH 2011
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Thousands of New Payroll Jobs PAYROLL JOB CHANGE Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2009. NEW YORK METRO AREA 30-Year Annual Average = 29,200/Year Note: 2009 is estimated at -210,000 jobs. 15-Year Annual Average = 60,000
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Thousands of New Payroll Jobs PAYROLL JOB CHANGE Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2009. NEW YORK METRO AREA 30-Year Annual Average = 29,200/Year Note: 2009 is estimated at -210,000 jobs. 15-Year Annual Average = 60,000
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THE NEW YORK AREA OFFICE MARKET
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National Vacancy Rate: 14.0% OFFICE VACANCY RATES SELECT METRO AREAS THIRD QUARTER 2009 Overall Vacancy Rate Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009.
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OFFICE NET ABSORPTION SELECT METRO AREAS JANUARY – SEPTEMBER 2009 -5.8 Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009. Net Absorption (Millions of SF) Nation: negative 48 million SF
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OFFICE NET ABSORPTION NEW YORK METRO AREA 1981 – THIRD QUARTER 2009 Net Absorption (Millions of SF) Long-Term Average = 3.3 MSF * Through 3 rd quarter 2009. Source: REIS, CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009. In normal growth years, average net absorption equals 5-10 million SF per year
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OFFICE SPACE UNDER DEVELOPMENT Millions of SF SELECT METRO AREAS SEPTEMBER 2009 Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009. Nation: 74 million SF at 44% pre-leased
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OFFICE SPACE DEMAND & DELIVERIES NEW YORK METRO AREA SEPTEMBER 2009 – DECEMBER 2014 20.0 million SF Deliveries = Demand Total = 26.6 million SF U/C or U/R: 16.4 million SF Planned and may deliver by 12/14: 10.2 million SF New York Metro = = Millions of Square Feet Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009.
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10.5% 10.1% 11.5% OFFICE VACANCY RATES NEW YORK METRO 2001 – 2014 Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009. Metro Vacancy 8.2% 10.7% 11.2% 10.6% 8.9% 7.5% 8.5% 9.0% 10.8% 11.5% 11.1% 10.8% 10.4% 10.1% Rent Equilibrium Zone = 9.4% to 9.6% Overall Vacancy Rate City of New York = 8.2%
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OFFICE RENT GROWTH PER YEAR NEW YORK METRO AREA 2000 – 2014 Average of Past 15 Years: 3.5% Effective Rental Rate Change/SF/Yr. Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009.
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Source: Delta Associates; December 2009. = Market Transition = Landlord/Seller Market = Tenant/Buyer Market Office 20132012201120102009 WHEN IS THE MARKETS SWEET SPOT? NEW YORK METRO AREA
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THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGIONAL ECONOMY
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PAYROLL JOB LOSSES - 133.6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2009. LARGE METRO AREAS 12 MONTHS ENDING OCTOBER 2009 City of San Francisco plus inner suburbs only = - 49.2
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Job Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2009. +2,000 -135,600 PAYROLL JOB CHANGE SAN FRANCISCO BAY 12 MONTHS ENDING OCTOBER 2009
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2007 Coincident Index Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Delta Associates; December 2009. 2008 2009 COINCIDENT INDEX OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS STATE OF CALIFORNIA
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PAYROLL JOB CHANGE - 50.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; December 2009. LARGE METRO AREAS JANUARY 31 THROUGH OCTOBER 31, 2009
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Source: Dr. Stephen Fuller, Delta Associates; December 2009. GRP = Gross Regional Product Core Industries % GRP Prof./Bus./Fin./Tech Services25% Federal and State Government13% Education and Health Services7% Construction6% Manufacturing5% Hospitality3% Total Core Industries59% Other41% Total GRP100% CORE INDUSTRIES SAN FRANCISCO BAY 2008
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Number of Jobs Source: Recovery.gov, Delta Associates; December 2009. *Delta Associates estimate based on state-wide job creation and regional population share. PROJECTED JOBS CREATED/SAVED THROUGH THE AMERICAN RECOVERY AND REINVESTMENT ACT SAN FRANCISCO BAY THROUGH 2011
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30-Year Annual Average = 17,800/Year Source: Delta Associates; December 2009. Note: 2009 is estimated at -143,600 jobs. PAYROLL JOB CHANGE SAN FRANCISCO BAY Thousands of New Payroll Jobs
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5-Year Projected Average = 9,000/Year30-Year Annual Average = 17,800/Year Source: Delta Associates; December 2009. Note: 2009 is estimated at -143,600 jobs. PAYROLL JOB CHANGE SAN FRANCISCO BAY Thousands of New Payroll Jobs
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THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY OFFICE MARKET
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National Vacancy Rate: 14.0% OFFICE VACANCY RATES SELECT METRO AREAS THIRD QUARTER 2009 Overall Vacancy Rate Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009.
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OFFICE NET ABSORPTION SELECT METRO AREAS JANUARY – SEPTEMBER 2009 -6.5 Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009. Net Absorption (Millions of SF) Nation: negative 48 million SF
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OFFICE NET ABSORPTION SAN FRANCISCO BAY 1981 – THIRD QUARTER 2009 Net Absorption (Millions of SF) Long-Term Average = 4.5 MSF * Through 3 rd quarter 2009. Source: Delta Associates; December 2009.
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OFFICE SPACE UNDER DEVELOPMENT Millions of SF SELECT METRO AREAS SEPTEMBER 2009 Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009. Nation: 74 million SF at 44% pre-leased
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OFFICE SPACE DEMAND & DELIVERIES SAN FRANCISCO BAY SEPTEMBER 2009 – DECEMBER 2014 6.5 million SF Deliveries = Demand Total = 4.1 million SF U/C or U/R: 1.6 million SF Planned and may deliver by 12/14: 2.5 million SF = = Millions of Square Feet Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009.
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OFFICE VACANCY RATES SAN FRANCISCO BAY 2001 – 2014 Overall Vacancy Rate Metro Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009. Vacancy 10.7% 16.0% 17.2% 15.2% 12.1% 11.9% 10.4% 11.1% 13.5% 14.3% 14.5% 14.0% 13.3% 12.5% 13.3% 12.5% 14.5% Rent Equilibrium Zone = 10.9% to 11.5% City of San Francisco = 11.8%
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OFFICE RENT GROWTH PER YEAR SAN FRANCISCO BAY 2000 – 2014 Average of Past 30 Years: 3.0% Effective Rental Rate Change/SF/Yr. Source: CoStar, Delta Associates; December 2009.
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Source: Delta Associates; December 2009. Office 20132012201120102009 WHEN IS THE MARKETS SWEET SPOT? SAN FRANCISCO BAY = Market Transition = Landlord/Seller Market = Tenant/Buyer Market
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87 Prepared for Edge Fund Advisors THE ECONOMY AND THE OFFICE MARKETS OF WASHINGTON, BOSTON, NEW YORK, AND SAN FRANCISCO By Gregory H. Leisch, CRE Alexander (Sandy) Paul December 2, 2009
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