1. 12-7: Experimental Probability

2. Experimental Probability – A probability based on the results of experimental data.
number of times an event occurs
P(event) =
number of times experiment is done

3. Example
A medical study tests a new medicine on 350 participants. It is effective for 301 participants. Find the experimental probability that the medicine is effective
number of times an event occurs
P(event) =
number of times experiment is done
301
P(event) =
= 0.86
= 86%
350

4. The following is a survey of vehicles in a parking lot.
Color
Number of Vehicles
black 9
blue 10
brown 13
green 7
red 12
white 11
gray 6
1.) P(red cars) 2.) P(white cars) 3.) P(blue or green) 4.)P(not black or gray)

5. Simulating Events
A simulation is a model used to find experimental probability.
For example, we simulated multiple rounds of Rock, Paper, and Scissors.
Our theoretical probability for winning, losing, and ties were all 33.3%.

6. Simulating Events Facts:
Experimental probability found by simulation can differ from theoretical probability.
The more trials you do in a simulation, the closer the theoretical and experimental probability are likely to be the same.

7. Homework
worksheet