1. 2.3. Market Analysis & Emergency Food Security Assessment Food Security Cluster Needs Assessment Workshop Dhaka, Bangladesh 19 – 20 February 2012

2. Session Objectives After this session, participants should be able to: Define a number of market analysis concepts Explain how market assessment can inform an emergency food security assessment Identify the key aims and components of a market assessment survey Food Security Assessments: Phases & Tools

3. Why? Market Analysis: to inform FS response decisions Facilitates: food assistance intervention planning with assurance that impact on domestic food production and food markets is not negative decision whether cash or food aid is the best option to address food insecurity local or regional food purchase planning and ensure these are implemented at the best time with maximum effect on producers and markets

4. Why are markets important for food availability? Markets, or better, traders ensure that: Food moves from food surplus zones to food deficit zones Food is stored during surplus times for use during deficit times If markets dont function well, they do not perform these functions - or only at large transaction cost

5. Why are markets important for food access? HHs buy, sell, barter on markets, influencing their food availability, while prices they pay & receive, & their use of credit, influence HH income & expenditure Each HH is confronted with price variation, influencing its ability to acquire food, & buying, selling, bartering patterns of HHs throughout the year & between years HH food access influences individual food intake

6. marketsand thefoodsecurity &nutritionframework

7. What? Purpose of Market Analysis in FSA 1.Estimate national/regional/local food supply capacities against domestic requirements 2.Gauge HH dependency on markets for food 3.Gauge HH capabilities to access food through markets 4.Determine market response capacities to cover food demand gaps 5.Formulate early warnings if domestic production & markets cannot cover food demand gaps 6.Inform food security response strategies

8. Macro-level analysis of food availability – conducted through analysis of secondary market data Market vulnerability to macro-economic conditions: economic growth & price volatility, international reserves Policy environment : trade policies, regulations, institutions, food policy and interaction of grain reserves with markets, governance What? Markets and food availability

9. Meso-level analysis of food availability conducted through trader surveys & community interviews Seeks to understand market structure, conduct and performance Micro-level analysis of food availability conducted through HH-level surveys Seeks to understand HH-level food availabilities What? Markets and food availability

10. Evidence suggests very few, if any, HHs are autarkic (or self-sufficient) in terms of food Majority of HHs buy more than they sell on markets What? HH participation in markets and food security

11. Households Dependence on Markets for Food Country % of HH food obtained at market WFP Household Surveys Mali 70% Niger 70% Lao, PDR 40% Tanzania 66% Timor Leste 59%

12. What? Market Structure Identifying critical marketing chains that may have been disrupted by the shock

13. What? Market Conduct Identifying patterns of behaviour that traders follow to affect or adjust to changing market conditions: Price-setting behaviour Level of competition Buying and selling practices Weights and measures Grades and standards

14. What? Market Performance Identifying extent to which markets produce outcomes deemed good or preferred by society: regular, predictable availability of basic foods at affordable prices Price levels and stability over time and space (market integration) Margins and costs Volumes Profits: excessive or not Product quality Food distribution within market

15. Market Performance: Example Real millet prices in regions of Niger and Nigeria, 1995 to 2006

16. What? Market Integration? Identifing the existence of trade flows: the movement of food in response to supply/demand imbalances Market integration allows price signals to be transmitted from one market to another Impact on HH Food Security of market integration? When markets are integrated, prices become more stable: then HH FS is likely to be improved, as poor HHs can obtain food at more affordable prices

17. How? Using market-based interventions to address food insecurity Improve market functioning / reduction of transaction cost, often with partners, to: reduce (informal) taxes improve infrastructure broaden the number of traders enhance trade credit provisioning, etc. Distribute cash or vouchers Local and regional procurement

18. How? Market Analysis tools for FSA Price analysis tools (e.g. CPI, seasonality analysis, volatility analysis, terms of trade analysis) to understand: How shocks may have disrupted or added to normal prices fluctuations Market survey tools (e.g. Trader Survey) to understand: Current price and sales conditions 6 month outlook for price and sales conditions Market constraints Market response

19. Examples Generic Trader Survey Sidr Cyclone Trader Survey Generic Trader Survey Sidr Cyclone Trader Survey

20. Useful Resource WFP VAMs Market Analysis Tool: How to conduct a trader survey Market Analysis Tool: How to conduct a trader survey

21. To summarise, markets: Influence food availability, co-determine purchasing and selling conditions, have an impact on food access and, subsequently, an indirect influence on individual food intake Play a role in addressing food insecurity, through market interventions, local procurement and cash/voucher programmes Wrap-up Markets & Food Security Analysis