1. CH13: Ecosystem Services

2. FIGURE 13.1 Warming oceans are reshaping fisheries.
Tropical fish species are moving toward the poles from the equator, changing catch composition in many areas and decreasing catch in some areas. Models project this trend continuing through the end of this century. Source: Pew Oceans Center.

3. FIGURE 13.2 Sardine and anchovy catches (g) track global temperature trends (a) and local atmospheric circulation indices (b–f). Peruvian anchovy (anchoveta) catches are high in cool periods, sardine catches are high in warm periods. Cool and warm periods oscillate on an approximately 25-year cycle. In (g) seabirds are used as a proxy for anchoveta in years prior to reliable catch records being kept. Source: Chavez et al. (2003). Reproduced with permission from AAAS.

4. FIGURE 13.3 The sardine–anchovy cycle.
Idealized representation of the catch cycle between anchovy and sardine, showing regional water temperature patterns characteristic of each phase of the cycle. Source: Chavez et al. (2003). Reproduced with permission from AAAS.

5. FIGURE 13.4 Change in water stress due to climate change and population change by 2025.
Water stress (demand (DIA)/discharge (Q)) was calculated using a combined general circulation model-water basin model (CGCM1-WBM). Climate change effects are pronounced by Red indicates areas of increasing water stress. Source: Vorosmarty (2000). Reproduced with permission from AAAS.

6. FIGURE 13.5 Declining Himalayan glaciers.
Himalayan glaciers that are the water towers for the great rivers in Asia are declining in mass (a), area (b) and length (c). Decline in length is charted in annual increments. Source: Bolch et al. (2012). Reproduced with permission from AAAS.

7. FIGURE 13.6 Global change in fire probability due to climate change.
Mean change (left panel) and multimodel agreement (right) are shown for increasing fire probability (red) or decreasing fire probability (blue). General circulation model agreement on precipitation change is low in some regions, accounting for the difference between mean and model agreement metrics. Source: Moritz et al. (2012). Reproduced with permission from ESA.

8. FIGURE 13.7 Snowpack fire index for the western United States.
Declines in snowpack are strongly correlated with increases in large fires. Red indicates declining snowpack, with size of circle representing strength of decline. Source: U.S. EPA. See also Westerling et al. (2006). Data source: Mote, P.W update to data originally published in Mote et al. (2005).

9. FIGURE 13.8 Ecosystem-based adaptation—a man-made marsh for flood control.
Natural vegetation can provide valuable recreational services and protect farms and dwellings in areas of increasing inundation.

10. FIGURE 13. 9 Coastal vegetation for ecosystem-based adaptation
FIGURE 13.9 Coastal vegetation for ecosystem-based adaptation. Mangroves and coastal vegetation help attenuate increased storm surges due to climate change. Restoring these vegetation types stores carbon, providing a climate regulation ecosystem service.

11. FIGURE 13.10 Global potential for flood protection from coastal vegetation.
Areas with low-lying populations are most at risk from coastal flooding, and those with extensive mangroves and other natural habitats have the most potential for ecosystem-based adaptation from coastal vegetation. Source: Temmerman et al. (2013).