1. RSA Insight Report: Supporting Slides
Edinburgh, East and Midlothian
comprising East Lothian, City of Edinburgh and Midlothian
Evidence Base Team
Glasgow

2. Contents Explanation of Thermometer Chart
1. The Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Region
Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by Region 2015
Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by RSA Local Authority 2015
Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base (2016)
Proportions of Businesses by Size Band (2016)
Business Births and Deaths per 10,0000 ( ) and Business Survival Index ( )
Resident and Workplace Based Earnings 2016 (Median)
Edinburgh East and Midlothian’s local authorities out commuting proportions by occupational grouping (SOC)
Deprivation Edinburgh East and Midlothian by SIMD (2016) Deciles1 1-10
Population projections change by age band, 2014 – 2039
Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Region
Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Local Authority
School Leaver Destinations 2009/10 and 2015/16

3. 2. Demand for Edinburgh, East and Midlothian
Total Employment Projections (jobs) ( )
Total Employment (jobs) Projections by Status and Gender
Edinburgh East and Midlothian Occupation al Structure 2000 and 2017 (people 000s)
Total employment (people 000s) by occupation 2017 and 2027
Proportion of occupations at top middle and bottom of labour market 2027
Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (people 000s) Edinburgh East and Midlothian
Proportion of total requirement at top middle and bottom of labour market
Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector 2017 and 2027
Expansion demand replacement demand and total requirement (jobs 000s) Edinburgh East and Midlothian
Total employment (jobs 000s) by key sector 2017 and 2027
Total Employment by qualification (000s) Edinburgh East and Midlothian 2017 and 2027
Total Requirement by qualification (people, 000s) Edinburgh East and Midlothian

4. Explanation of thermometer/bullet chart
Although most people are familiar with a grouped bar chart:...
... a thermometer (or bullet) chart shows both bars in one, enabling more space to be used, which is more practical when dealing with more cluttered charts, showing 2 digit SIC and SOC for example.
The figures are the ‘thermometer’ and the 2027 figures act as the ‘mercury’. This enables a comparison to be made as to whether there has been a rise or fall compared with the 2017 baseline. An example is given below:
2027 figures less than 2017
2016 figure
2017
2024 figure
2027 figures more than 2017
2027

5. 1. Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Region

6. Figure 2.1: Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job), by Region 2015
Low GVA, High Productivity
High GVA, High Productivity
Low GVA, Low Productivity
High GVA, Low Productivity
Source: Oxford Economics forecasts
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

7. Figure 2.2: Distribution of GVA (£million constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job), by RSA Local Authority 2015
Low GVA, High Productivity
High GVA, High Productivity
Low GVA, Low Productivity
High GVA, Low Productivity
Source: Oxford Economics forecasts
Note: the data is scaled - the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

8. Table 2.1: Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base, (2016)
Edinburgh, East and Midlothian
City of Edinburgh
East Lothian
Midlothian
Scotland
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 2% 1%
10% 5%
Production 4% 3% 7% 6%
Construction 9% 8%
12%
15%
11%
Motor trades
Wholesale
Retail
Transport & storage
Accommodation & food services
Information & communication
13%
Financial & insurance
Property
Professional, scientific & technical
22%
24%
17%
16%
19%
Business administration & support services
Public administration & defence 0%
Education
Health
Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services
Total
23,390
18,075
3,065
2,270
171,905
Source: UK Business Counts

9. Table 2.2: Proportions of businesses by size band, 2016
City of Edinburgh
East Lothian
Midlothian
Edinburgh, East and Midlothian
Scotland
0-9
87%
89%
86%
88%
10-49
10%
13%
50-249 2% 1%
250+ 0%
Source: UK Business Counts

10. Figure 2.3: Business births and deaths per 10,000 population ( ) and Business survival index ( )
Recession
(2008-9)
Source: ONS Business Demography and Mid-Year Population Estimates
Note: data for Business Survival Rates only available for in Evidence Base.

11. Table 2.3: Resident and workplace based earnings, 2016 (Median)
Area
Resident Earnings
Workplace Earnings
Difference between resident and workplace earnings
East Lothian
£425
£393
£32
City of Edinburgh
£470
£480
-£10
Midlothian
£428
£475
-£48
Scottish Average
£434
£432 £2
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings. Figures based on weekly pay of all workers.

12. Table 2.4: Edinburgh, East and Midlothian local authorities out commuting proportions by occupational grouping (SOC1)
SOC 1-3
SOC 4-6
SOC 7-9
East Lothian
48%
31%
22%
Edinburgh City
65%
18%
17%
Midlothian
41%
35%
24%
Source: Origin Destination statistics by Local Authority, open access (WB07BUK_la), UK Data Service
Note: denominator = total trips out of the local authority
1 See SOC Codes for Edinburgh, East and Midlothian here:

13. Figure 2.4: Deprivation in the Edinburgh, East and Midlothian by SIMD (2016) Deciles2 1-10
Source: Scottish Government, 2016
2 See SIMD interactive map here:

14. Table 2.5: Population projections, change by age band, 2014 – 2039
0 -15
16-29
30-49
50-64
65-74
75+
Total
East Lothian
12% 2% 6% 1%
42%
104%
18%
City of Edinburgh
16%
-1%
17%
24%
47%
83%
21%
Midlothian
25%
11%
34%
106%
26%
Edinburgh and Lothians
15%
44%
90%
Scotland
-8%
-2%
-6%
27%
85% 7%
Source: National Records of Scotland.

15. Figure 2.5: Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity, by Region
Low Unemployment, High Inactivity
High Unemployment, High Inactivity
Low Unemployment, Low Inactivity
High Unemployment, Low Inactivity
Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based), January to December, 2016.
Note: the data is scaled and thus the units used are standard deviations from the mean.

16. Figure 2.6: Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity, by Local Authority
High Unemployment, High Inactivity
Low Unemployment, High Inactivity
Low Unemployment, Low Inactivity
High Unemployment, Low Inactivity
High GVA, Low Productivity
Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based), January to December, 2016.
Note: the data is scaled and thus the units used are standard deviations from the mean..

17. Table 2.6: School Leaver Destinations, 2009/10 and 2015/16
Edinburgh, East and Midlothian
City of Edinburgh
East Lothian
Midlothian
Higher education (%)
2009/10
34%
35%
28%
2015/16
37%
29%
Change 1% 2% 4%
Further education (%)
23%
22%
24%
21%
16%
-2%
-1%
-6%
-3%
Employment (%)
26%
33%
30%
39% 9% 7%
11%
Unemployment (%) *
15%
13% 5%
-8%
-9%
-10%
Unemployment Seeking and Unemployment Not Seeking.
Source: Scottish Government School Leavers Destination Dataset

18. 2. Demand for Skills in Edinburgh, East and Midlothian

19. Figure 3.1: Total Employment Projections (jobs), 2000-2027
Source: Oxford Economics

20. Figure 3.2: Total Employment (jobs) projections, 2000-2027 by status and gender  
Source: Oxford Economics

21. Figure 3.3: Edinburgh, East and Midlothian Occupational Structure, 2000 and 2017 (people, 000s)
Source: Oxford Economics

22. Figure 3.4: Total employment (people, 000s), by occupation, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Data Labels for 2027 only

23. Edinburgh, East and Midlothian
Table 3.1: Proportion of occupations at top, middle and bottom of labour market, 2027
Edinburgh, East and Midlothian
East Lothian
City of Edinburgh
Midlothian
Higher level jobs
53%
44%
55%
39%
Middle level jobs
26%
37%
25%
34%
Lower level jobs
20%
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are categorised as follows: Graduate – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to 6; and bottom level – SOC codes 7 to 9.

24. Table 3.2: Expansion demand, replacement demand and total requirement (people, 000s), Edinburgh, East and Midlothian,
Occupation
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Managers, directors & senior officials
2.3
10.6
12.9
Professional occupations
10.7
58.0
68.6
Associate professional & technical occupations
5.1
19.9
25.0
Administrative & secretarial occupations
2.0
16.1
18.1
Skilled trades occupations
2.7
11.7
14.4
Caring, leisure & other service occupations
3.4
10.9
Sales & customer service occupations
2.2
17.5
19.7
Process, plant & machine operatives
0.7
3.3
4.0
Elementary occupations
3.8
23.4
27.2
Total
32.8
171.4
204.2
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data.

25. Edinburgh, East and Midlothian
Table 3.3: Proportion of total requirement at top, middle and bottom of labour market,
Edinburgh, East and Midlothian
East Lothian
City of Edinburgh
Midlothian
Higher level jobs
52%
35%
54%
Middle level jobs
23%
28%
22%
30%
Lower level jobs
25%
37%
24%
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are categorised as follows: Graduate – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to 6; and bottom level – SOC codes 7 to 9.

26. Figure 3.5: Total employment (jobs), by industrial sector, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Data labels for 2027 only

27. Table 3.4: Expansion demand, replacement demand and total requirement (jobs, 000s), Edinburgh, East and Midlothian,
Sector
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
-0.1
3.3
3.2
Mining and quarrying
0.1
0.0
Manufacturing
-1.7
3.5
1.8
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning
-0.4
1.0
0.6
Water supply, sewerage, waste management
-0.2
2.6
2.4
Construction
6.8
9.9
Wholesale and retail trade
5.7
37.5
43.2
Transport and storage
1.6
14.8
16.4
Accommodation and food services
5.5
24.5
30.0
Information and communication
1.4
1.1
Financial and insurance activities
-0.5
1.9
Real estate activities
0.7
Professional, scientific and technical
8.8
9.0
Admin. and support services
6.6
24.8
31.5
Public admin. and defence
-1.1
11.7
10.5
Education
19.1
21.5
Human health and social work
6.0
21.4
27.4
Arts, entertainment and recreation
2.8
13.0
15.8
Other service activities
2.0
Total
42.6
187.1
229.6
Source: Oxford Economics

28. Figure 3.6: Total employment (jobs, 000s), by key sector, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Data labels for 2027 only

29. Table 3.5 Expansion demand, replacement demand and total requirement (jobs, 000s), Edinburgh, East and Midlothian,
Key Sector
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
Chemical sciences
-0.05
0.1
Creative industries
3.0
4.2
7.2
Construction
4.3
7.3
11.6
Energy
-0.1
2.0
1.9
Engineering
2.1
1.7
3.8
Food and drink
-0.3
3.5
Financial and business services
5.7
5.8
11.5
Health and social care
6.0
21.4
27.4
ICT/digital
1.3
1.1
2.4
Life sciences
0.8
0.2
1.0
Tourism
6.3
28.9
35.2
Total
29.2
76.4
105.6
Source: Oxford Economics

30. Figure 3.7: Total Employment by qualification (people, 000s), Edinburgh, East and Midlothian, 2017 and 2027
Source: Oxford Economics.
Note: Data labels for 2027 only

31. Table 3.6: Total Requirement by qualification (people, 000s), Edinburgh, East and Midlothian,
Qualification
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
Total Requirement
SCQF
6.0
12.6
18.6
SCQF
19.8
82.2
102.0
SCQF 6
1.8
21.6
23.4
SCQF 5
3.3
35.1
38.4
SCQF 1-4
0.8
6.8
7.6
No Qualifications
1.2
13.1
14.3
Total
32.8
171.4
204.2
Source: Oxford Economics.