1. JOBS IN MAINE: CONDITIONS & OUTLOOK Labor Market Information and Online Resources Maine Career Development Association Annual Conference June 6, 2014 Ruth Pease Economic Research Analyst Center for Workforce Research & Information Maine Dept. of Labor www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/ ruth.e.pease@maine.gov 207-621-5189

2. Labor Market Information and Resources Recent trends and current conditions Population and labor force Outlook 2010 to 2020 (preview 2012 to 2022)

3. Types of workforce data: Occupations what workers do (SOC) Industries what firms do (NAICS)

5. Recent trends and current conditions

6. Since stabilizing in 2010, Maine has regained about one-half of the number of jobs lost in the downturn. The unemployment rate continues to trend down.

7. Sectors that shed the most jobs involve making, moving or selling goods, as well as government; sectors adding jobs are primarily human-capital intensive… (Net change in jobs from 2008 to 2013)

8. ...This has caused major displacement in middle-skill blue- collar and administrative support occupations, which have been the primary path to a middle-class lifestyle for those without post-secondary education. (Change in jobs 2008 to 2012)

9. Jobs that do not require post-secondary education suffered highest losses. Net growth occurred in occupations that require education beyond high school. Many displaced workers do not qualify for openings in growing fields of work. Net change in jobs by usual educational requirement for entry. 2008 to 2012

10. Another indication of shifting job requirements, work attributes valued in growing middle-income occupations are very different from those in declining occupations. Examples of knowledge, skill and ability requirements: Growing Occupations Critical thinking, problem solving, decision making, mathematics, reading comprehension, deductive reasoning, processing information, analyzing data Declining Occupations Machinery operation, equipment inspection, tool selection, physical strength, following instructions, manual dexterity, clerical functions

11. In summary - The recession of 2008 accelerated a structural shift in jobs away from middle-skill occupations that typically involved routine tasks that are procedural and repetitive. Rising performance requirements of jobs present a challenge… …to displaced workers whose skills and experience may no longer be in demand, …and to job seekers lacking relevant education, training or experience.

12. Looking ahead - demographic considerations

13. We can no longer count on a natural increase in population so we will need to increase levels of net in-migration to maintain a stable population and workforce.

14. As we move through the lifecycle, our attachment to the labor force is highest between age 25 and 54 before declining at an accelerating rate with age.

15. Maine has a larger share of Baby Boomers and a smaller share of young people to enter the workforce than the U.S. as a whole.

16. During this decade a very large share of the population is aging beyond their peak years of labor force attachment. (Population by year of age if there were no migration in or out of Maine)

17. The population in their peak years of labor force participation will decline between 2012 and 2022.

18. Job Outlook

19. JOBS Population Labor Force Goods and Services

20. Considerations affecting outlook In the short term, a strengthening economy that puts unemployed back to work should produce job gains in the next few years. In the longer term, job growth will be driven by demographic trends in the population and migration to and from the state. Demographic trends affect: Labor supply Demand for goods and services

21. The share of jobs in goods-producing industries (natural resources, construction and manufacturing) has fallen from nearly half of jobs in 1950 to 14 percent of jobs in 2012. That trend is expected to continue.

22. Maines biggest industries Distribution by jobs in 2013 Industry Outlook – what firms do:

23. Through 2022, many sectors will see job growth, but only four are expected to have significantly more jobs than the pre- recession peak.

24. Jobs by occupational categories 2013 Occupational Outlook – what workers do:

25. Growth is concentrated in occupational groups that represent opposite ends of the skills, education and wage spectrum.

26. The concentration of job growth in high- and low-wage occupations will result in a smaller share of jobs in the middle of the wage spectrum.

27. The distribution of net growth by education level shows a shift toward occupations requiring education beyond high school. However, most jobs will still be in occupations with low education requirements.

28. High Growth versus In-Demand Job openings stem from two sources: replacement of incumbent workers and job creation. From 2010 to 2020, nearly 4 out of five openings will be due to replacement needs.

29. Replacement openings create job opportunities even in occupations expected to experience net job losses. In-demand status is based on average annual openings, not net growth.

30. CWRI homepage http://maine.gov/labor/cwri/ http://maine.gov/labor/cwri/

31. CWRI Resources for Job Seekers http://maine.gov/labor/cwri/jobseekers.htm Average Wage Lookup Quick reference providing average wage and link to O*Net Occupations by Wages Look for regional concentrations and wage differentials High Wage, In-Demand Jobs Links to information on related occupations (O*NET Online) Growing/Declining Occupations Research occupations by openings, net growth or net loss Employer Locator Research Maine employers by occupation, industry, or region http://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/outlook.html Occupation by Industry tab Find out which industries employ a selected occupation.