1. Forecast verification at the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia
Lovro Kalin

2. Forecasting Department
cca 15 forecasters
daily shifts (5-19 h)
Various customers:
Government, Civil Protection,
Media: TV, radio, newspapers, web
Special customers: Electric company, Road Service, Railways, Fire Protection, Water Management etc.
Short to long range (nowcasting to seasonal)

3. Verification section Goal mainly to verify Department’s forecast
Also models (ECMWF, Aladin)
Point-to-point method (usually synop data against nearest grid point of the model)
Operational and on-demand (seasonal, annual)
Annual report for the ECMWF “Green Book”

4. operational

5. monthly report

6. temperature

7. temperature

8. Forest fire danger Daily forecast for Canadian Forest fire index (FWI)
For 24 stations, for the following day
For Day+2 derived from Aladin (DMO)
Special warnings
Long-range fire danger forecast

9. Forest fire danger

10. warnings Increased in recent years Verification methods - spurious
General warning for the Civil Protection
Fire Protection special warning
Maritime warning of the Maritime Branch (Split)
Meteoalarm
Energy company
Heat waves
Verification methods - spurious

11. Heat waves Since 2012 In cooperation with Ministry of Health
Daily for 4 days in advance
8 Croatian cities (regions)
4 levels: GREEN, YELLOW, ORANGE, RED
very good public reception

13. 2-m max. temperature verification (Zagreb, year 2014.)

14. precipitation forecast

15. ECMWF seasonal forecast verification

16. drought prediction SPI1<-1 SPI3comb <-1 SPI3<-1
based on ECMWF seasonal forecast
Standardized Precipitation Index - SPI
introduction to operational fc in 2016
L. Kalin, K. Cindrić, D. Mihajlović, B. Matjačić. 2015: Possibilities on drought forecasting in Croatia. Drought: Research and Science-Policy Interfacing,