1. Will New Products lead us to Nirvana? David Faulkner, CPAC, 9 Nov 2006
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Will New Products lead us to Nirvana?
David Faulkner, CPAC, 9 Nov 2006

2. 35,000 ft View Existing models for predicting market adoption rates
Challenges this initiative faces
As seen from a new arrivals perspective
What happens next

3. Bass Diffusion Model
f(t) is the rate of change of the installed base fraction
F(t) is the installed base fraction
m is the ultimate market potential
p is the coefficient of innovation
q is the coefficient of imitation
Dr. Frank Bass 1969

4. Graph of Bass equation

5. So where are we?

6. One Catch-The Curve is not Continuous

7. Innovators Technology enthusiasts Embracers of new technology
Expect that there will be issues
But willing to work through them
Do not buy on value added
Must be cheap, since rarely budgeted

8. Early Adopters Visionaries Motivated by a dream
Will take a risk on new technology
Desire a breakthrough in productivity
Not to be confused with improvement
Revolutionize their business
Keep in contact with the Innovators

9. Early Majority Pragmatic Vertical communicators
References must come from within ‘their world’
Want to see competition
Want established players
Catch-22
Want predictable, measurable progress

10. Late Majority Reluctant followers Must work without issue
Follow the lead of the Early Majority
Integrators are classic example of this

11. Differences across the Chasm
Early Adopter
Using this as a change agent
Wants to get a jump on the competition
Early Majority
Want a productivity improvement
Minimize discontinuity with the status quo
Early Adopters not good references for Early Majority

12. “Distrust” Visionaries want to change the world but…
If it doesn’t work, the Pragmatist is left to clean up the mess
Why take the risk

13. Where are we today? What is your opinion?
In order to succeed this initiative must attract the attention of the early majority
Will new products do that ?
Or are we restarting the adoption cycle again?

14. How to succeed
No one company will be able to completely control the market
Market will not accept this, or success will be limited
Co-opetition is required

15. Identify one or two Focus Markets
Focused attention on a segment of the market
Refining appears to be leading the charge
Others?
Trying to satisfy too many markets at once leads to dilution of effort

16. References Critical to the success of this initiative
Must be valid for the market segment
Must have credibility with the Early Market Adopters