1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Outlook
Hills Bank 2017 Ag Outlook
Riverside, Iowa
Mar. 9, 2017
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
158.1
171.0
168.4
174.6
170.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,829
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,065
Beg. Stocks
821
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,320
Imports 36 32 67 55 50
Total Supply
14,686
15,479
15,401
16,940
16,435
Feed & Residual
5,040
5,280
5,120
5,550
5,450
Ethanol
5,124
5,200
5,224
5,400
Food, Seed, & Other
1,369
1,401
1,422
1,445
1,470
Exports
1,920
1,867
1,898
2,225
1,900
Total Use
13,454
13,748
13,664
14,620
14,220
Ending Stocks
2,215
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.46
3.70
3.61
3.40
3.50
Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.4
88.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
47.5
48.0
52.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,358
3,927
3,926
4,307
4,180
Beg. Stocks
141 92
191
197
435
Imports 72 33 24 25
Total Supply
3,570
4,052
4,140
4,528
4,640
Crush
1,734
1,873
1,886
1,940
1,945
Seed & Residual
107
146
122
128
135
Exports
1,638
1,842
1,936
2,025
2,125
Total Use
3,478
3,862
3,944
4,093
4,205
Ending Stocks
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
13.00
10.10
8.95
9.60
Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 3 3

4. Soy Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. Change in Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

9. Change in Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

10. Corn Grind for Ethanol

11. Current Corn Futures
4.03
3.95
3.55
Source: CME Group, 3/7/2017

12. Current Soybean Futures
10.00
9.68
9.67
Source: CME Group, 3/7/2017

13. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

14. Source: CME Group

15. U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-Dec 2016
(Volume excluding by-products & variety meats)
Dec-16/Nov-16
Dec-16/Dec-15
Year-to-Date
Country
Percent
1,000 lbs
Japan
-21%
-6%
-62,218
-5%
Mexico 8%
23%
50,480 3%
Canada
-2% 6%
8,488 2%
South Korea
20%
14%
-87,182
-18%
China (Mainland)
-12%
67%
245,965
98%
Hong Kong 5%
-26%
22,267
18%
Australia
21%
10%
10,562
Philippines
-16%
-1%
3,560
China (Taiwan)
101%
-18,565
-49%
Colombia
164%
9,820 9%
Honduras
-41%
12%
10,879
17%
Dominican Republic
29%
9,134
Guatemala
-44%
-3%
2,162
Chile
-65%
113%
5,675
Other Countries
28%
13,111 7%
Total
15%
224,138 4%
Source: USDA/ERS

16. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

17. Source: USDA/AMS. * Steve Meyer, EMI.

18. U.S. Packing Capacity Under Construction
New pork packing
Fall 2016
Summer/Fall 2017
Summer/Fall 2018
plants
Daily
Annual
Pleasant Hope, MO
2,500
625,000
Windom, MN
4,000
1,000,000
Sioux City, IA
12,000
3,000,000
24,000
6,000,000
Coldwater, MI
10,000
2,500,000
Wright County, IA
Total
6,500
1,625,000
28,500
7,125,000
50,500
12,625,000
Head per week
31,250
137,019
242,788
% of '15 avg = mil
1.4%
6.2%
11.1%
% of '15 max = mil
1.2%
5.5%
9.7%
Source: Steve Meyer. Published in National Hog Farmer Magazine, July 19, 2016.
Source: Seaboard Triumph Foods plans to expand for second shift at Sioux City plant, February 17, 2017

19. Data Source: USDA/NASS

20. Data Source: USDA/AMS

21. Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center

22. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

23. U.S. Beef Exports, Jan-Dec 2016
(Volume excluding by-products & variety meats)
Year-to-Date
Country
1,000 lbs
Percent
Japan
116,965
22%
South Korea
135,937
43%
Mexico
31,090 9%
Canada
-15,332
-5%
Hong Kong
-21,827
-7%
China (Taiwan)
28,220
26%
Netherlands
-3,890
-10%
Chile
1,195 5%
Philippines
-8,114
-25%
Vietnam
6,400
52%
Dominican Republic
-3,368
-16%
United Arab Emirates
1,753
11%
Italy
-2,720
Guatemala
2,759
27%
Other Countries
15,410
12%
Total
284,478
13%
Source: USDA/ERS

24. U.S. Meat Trade
Source: USDA-WAOB 24 24

25. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: