1. International conference on real estate statistics 22 February 2019
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[Please select]
Andrew Kanutin
European Central Bank DG-Statistics
An examination of Commercial microdata - making the imperfect useable -
International conference on real estate statistics
22 February 2019

2. “This is one of those cases in which the imagination is baffled by the facts.” (Adam Smith)

3. Background
ECB interested not only in macro indicators on real estate but increasingly much more detail.*
Reasons why include looking at financial exposures, localised responses to policy etc.
(*) Overall it is clear that “the devil is in the detail”.

4. Ideal world Timely (T+1Q) Quarterly Frequency Breakdown by:
~Type of buildings
~Geographical region
Quarterly Frequency
Timely (T+1Q)

5. How
Through its Working Group on General Economic Statistics the ECB conducted an informal search in 2017/18.
Key attributes: market coverage (geographic, market segments, ownership, etc.)
Two main contenders emerged:
MSCI
RCA

6. NB Only around 40% confirmed transaction prices in EU.
Assessment process (i) RCA
At least some transactions for all EU countries
Relatively comprehensive coverage for larger countries and cities
Available CPPIs seem relatively plausible
Detailed regional data available (both micro and aggregate)
Availability of some city level CPPIs.
High frequency (mainly Q)
Lower percentage of confirmed pricing data
Many of the variables have high percentage of missing data
Lacking/missing measure data for smaller cities and countries
Low number of transactions for smaller cities and countries, in part due to the high price floor
Currently no expansion plans for the number of CPPIs
Advantages
Drawbacks
NB Only around 40% confirmed transaction prices in EU.

7. Assessment process (ii) MSCI
Valuation based data for a large part of EU
Data broadly plausible (but…)
Already used for many countries in ECB calculations
“Meso-level” data only
Frequency often only annual
Coverage falling?
Definitions? (but recently improved)
Advantages
Drawbacks

8. Lessons No one-size fits all solution at present.
Both data-sets have positive and negative attributes.
Some concerns that the profile of resultant macro price indices do not always show same trend (caveat: for DE, GR, IT, DK, PL using nationally preferred sources).
Significant task to explain to end-users; need to step up ESCB information campaigns about data.
Use the right source, with the right caveats at the right time for analysis.
Current situation is sub-optimal. Either significant improvements commercially or improved/new “official” data.

9. Thank you Q&A Andrew dot Kanutin at ecb.int
International conference on real estate statistics 22 February 2019