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Introduction and the Importance of Palaeoclimatology

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1 Introduction and the Importance of Palaeoclimatology
DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Introduction and the Importance of Palaeoclimatology Prof. Alan M. Haywood School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

2 Talk Outline Inspiration and approaches to palaeo
DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Inspiration and approaches to palaeo Climate evolution - the last 80 million years On the shoulders of Giants... Problems in a post-pioneer era Data and model uncertainties Talk Outline 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds 2

3 Why Palaeoclimate? Group identity: named after the late Prof Bruce Sellwood of Reading University. He was a major player in setting up palaeoclimate modelling in UK. Top left to bottom right: Me, Jane, Bridget Wade, James Pope, Abigail Clifton, Stephen Hunter, Sarah Bonham, Aisling Dolan, Vanessa Bowman, Matthew Pound, Daniel Hill, Paul Wignall. 3

4 Why? Uncertainties highlighted in climate prediction involve aspects of the climate that have changed in the past (e.g. ENSO). Palaeoclimatology can assess whether these changes are consistent with current theories of the climate system and if not, why not. Palaeoclimate provides a unique test-bed for models that project large changes in the future to be evaluated using true out-of-sample tests of comparable magnitude.

5 Inspiration and approaches to palaeo
- ENSO as an example Shift in frequency/amplitude of El Nino Attribution to warming due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases?

6 Inspiration and approaches to palaeo
DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission - Policy relevant tipping elements 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Adapted from Lenton et al. (2008). Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

7 Inspiration and approaches to palaeo Earth System Sensitivity
DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Inspiration and approaches to palaeo - Climate and Earth System Sensitivity Climate Sensitivity Earth System Sensitivity 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Lunt et al. (2010). Nature Geoscience Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

8 Last 80 million yrs

9 Combining data and models a challenging relationship at times...

10 Modelling: On the Shoulders of Giants!
The great pioneers e.g.: DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Eric Barron Tom Crowley John Kutzbach Paul Valdes Established many of the parameters and attributes of the scientific environment in which we work We must now add to the tapestry and unravel complexities/contradictions and understand and quantify uncertainties. Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

11 Palaeoclimatology: Grand Challenges
DESERT STORMS Palaeoclimatology: Grand Challenges Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Reproducing the observed record of variability and change Reconciling palaeoclimate simulations with climate archives Assessment of climate and earth system sensitivity 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

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