1. Special Tropical Briefing: June 19, 2017 130 PM CDT
Self introduction and introduction of topic.

2. Tropical Update Latest Information LATEST INFORMATION
HIGH (90%) chance that a tropical (or subtropical) cyclone will develop across the central Gulf of Mexico by mid week
Potential Local Impacts Through Mid Week:
Heavy rainfall & flooding (especially near coast)
High surf, deadly rip currents, & minor coastal flooding
Gale force winds over AL/NW FL Gulf Waters
Continue to closely monitor the latest forecasts
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3. Situation Overview
While there is still uncertainty on eventual track/strength of the system, center of the system likely to stay west of our area and move into TX/LA
Hurricane hunters investigating the system beginning at 3 pm this afternoon. Advisories could be initiated depending on their findings.
Track of the center not as important with all of the heavy weather on the eastern side of the system
Increasing confidence on these threats (regardless of development):
Heavy rain/flooding (Tuesday – at least Thursday)
High Risk of Rip Currents (Tuesday – End of week)
Minor coastal flooding (Wednesday – at least Thursday)
High seas and potential gale force winds over the coastal waters (Tuesday – at least Thursday)
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4. Rainfall/Flooding Potential
Initially greatest flooding threat will be in southern half of the area beginning on Tuesday
Threat may expand further inland, particularly late Wednesday into Thursday.
Current rainfall forecast through Thursday:
Coastal: 4-8” over southern half of area with locally higher totals over 10” possible.
Well inland: 2-4” with locally higher totals possible
Further adjustments are likely
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5. Rainfall/Flooding Potential
Over the last month, the region has seen % of normal rainfall. Ground conditions are saturated which will lead to quicker runoff of rain.
Area rivers are running above normal, increasing the potential for minor to moderate flooding.
Above normal tides could inhibit proper drainage
NWSMobile weather.gov/mob

6. Coastal Flooding Potential
Over the last month, the region has seen % of normal rainfall. Ground conditions are saturated which will lead to quicker runoff of rain.
Area rivers are running above normal, increasing the potential for minor to moderate flooding.
Above normal tides could inhibit proper drainage
NWSMobile weather.gov/mob

7. Summary What do we know: Uncertainties that still exist:
Increasing confidence on these threats (regardless of development):
Heavy rain/flooding especially over coastal areas (Tuesday – at least Thursday)
High Risk of Rip Currents (Tuesday – End of week)
Minor coastal flooding (Wednesday – at least Thursday)
1-2 ft inundation along typical flood prone coastal roads during times of high tide in the morning.
High seas and potential gale force winds over the coastal waters (Tuesday – at least Thursday)
Uncertainties that still exist:
Exact track and strength of the system, which will mainly impact wind forecast along the coast and over the marine area
NWSMobile weather.gov/mob

8. Next Update
Updated slides may be sent late this afternoon/early evening, pending new information from the National Hurricane Center
Next regularly scheduled briefing will be sent by 630 am CDT Tuesday
Next webinar scheduled for 1130 am CDT Tuesday
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9. Contact Us NWS Mobile Forecast Desk… 800-284-9059
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