1. Recent U.S. Economic Performance and Prospects for the Futureby
Dale W. Jorgenson
Session: Technology, Productivity, Growth, and Jobs
Hosted By: Society of Policy Modeling & American Economic Association
ASSA 2019 Annual Meeting
Friday Jan. 4, 2019 – Atlanta, GA

2. RECENT U.S. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
Sources of U.S. Economic Growth: Capital Input, Labor Input, Total Factor Productivity.
Capital Input: Information Technology, Non-Information Technology.
Labor Input: College, Non-College.
Total Factor Productivity.

3. SOURCES OF U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH

4. PROSPECTS FOR FUTURE U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH
Prospects for U.S. Economic Growth: Common Assumptions, Alternative Assumptions
Common Assumptions: Hours Worked, Labor Quality, Capital Share, Reproducible Capital Share.
Alternative Assumptions: Contribution of Total Factor Productivity Growth, Capital Quality Growth
Projections: Value Added Growth, Average Labor Productivity Growth

5. PROJECTIONS OF OUTPUT AND LABOR PRODUCTIVITY, 2017-2027

6. RANGE OF U.S. PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE
Hours and Labor Productivity,
Hours and Labor Productivity, Base Case,
Hours and Labor Productivity, Low and High Cases,

7. RANGE OF U.S. POTENTIAL GROWTH, 2017-2027
Annual Contribution %

8. U.S. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND FUTURE GROWTH: SUMMARY
Sources of U.S. Economic Growth: Capital and Labor Inputs and Total Factor Productivity.
Hours, Labor Quality, Capital Shares.
Hours Projections Are the Same for Base Case and High and Low Cases.
Labor Productivity Projections Vary among Base Case and High and Low Cases.