1. Update of NMC/CMA Global Ensemble Prediction System
Jing Chen, Hua Tian, Gou Deng
National Meteorological Center (NMC), CMA

2. Contents GEPS System Configuration GEPS Update
Tigge relative research and use

3. T213 GEPS Configuration Product processing T213L31 Run all members.
Upgraded T213 GEPS System
model
T213L31
Horizontal Resolution
0.5625
Vertical Resolution 31
Analysis system
3D SSI+ATOVS
Perturbation method
BGM
Perturbation region
Global
EPS members 15
forecast
10 days
Typhoon
relocation and vortex perturbation
Obs
SSI+ATOVS
BGM perturbation method
Con.l Run
IC1+
IC1-
IC2+
IC2-
Run all members.
Product processing

4. System Structure and Flow Chart
T213 GEPS Based on-BGM
System Structure and Flow Chart

5. Global EPS Upgrade
Data assimilation from Optimal Interpolation  3DVAR +ATOVS in 2008
CMA old EPS
CMA upgraded EPS
Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC)
Control run forecast skill improve from 5 to 6.5 day

6. Global TC ensemble prediction
New update in 2009 for
Global TC ensemble prediction
Old TC EPS： Perturbed TC environment
Upgrade TC EPS：perturbed TC environment ＋ Vortex.
Old TC EPS
Difference
New TC EPS

7. The ensemble products update on the NMC’s web
t213/probability/precipitation/index.htm

8. Tigge relative research and use
Global EPS system upgrade;
Typhoon EPS system development;
Method for bias correction & combination, cluster;
Numerical model error analysis and NWP Probability;
Hydrology prediction drived by TIGGE data;
Method for severe weather potential forecast;
TIGGE-LAM researches
Data operational use
Medium-range forecast with TIGGE data;
CXML typhoon track EPS product;

9. Global TC track EPS CXML digital products
CXML ( Cyclone extensible Markup Language):
No.0817, HIGOS (2008)
CMA
ECMWF
NCEP
JMA
KMA
UKMO

10. Hydrology forecast based on downscaling TIGGE precipitation
CMA
CMA
ECMWF
ECMWF
NCEP
NCEP
Hydrology forecast based on downscaling TIGGE precipitation
TIGGE precipitation in watershed

11. Period and flood runoff forecast based on EPS data
Super EPS flood runoff probability prediction

12. THANKS