1. Kenya 2016/17 Drought Analysis
Kenya Meteorological Department
Joyce Kimutai
March 2017

2. Past droughts events in Kenya
Year
People impacted
1991/92
1.5 million
1995/96
1.4 million
1999/2000
4.4 million
2004
3 million
2008/09
March 2017

3. In 2010/11, 3.7 million were affected
Counties most impacted : Turkana,Mandera, Marsabit, Garissa, Wajir, Isiolo, and Tana River
In 2016/17 over 3 million by March 16th 2017
The 12 counties in an alarm stage : Marsabit, Garissa, Mandera, Isiolo, Kwale, Turkana, West Pokot, Samburu, Tana River, Kilifi, Wajir and Lamu. Some expected to slide into the emergency phase in the coming weeks.
11 counties at the alert stage: Baringo, Embu (Mbeere), Kajiado, Kitui, Meru (North), Tharaka Nithi, Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri (Kieni) and Taita Taveta.
March 2017

4. MAM 2010
OND 2010
MAM 2011
MAM 2016
OND 2016 ?
March 2017

5. Study area
March 2017

6. Methodology
Scientists from Kenya Met Department, World Weather Attribution and University of Nairobi collaborated on this analysis
Multiple methods of attribution science were used to look at the possible roles of climate change and La Nina in the drought.
March 2017

7. Results
The areas with the lowest rainfall in this drought are in the northwest and southeast parts of the country.
Trends indicate that the temperatures involved in this drought are hotter than they would have been without the influence of climate change.
There is no significant shift in rainfall amounts due to climate change, but the team cannot exclude small changes in the risk of poor rains
The depressed October-December rainfall was largely influenced by La Nina
March 2017

8. Recommendations
Temperature increase due to climate change can lead to a stress on water supply and livestock. In order to reduce future impacts of climate change this remains a priority in disaster management and agriculture planning.
The La Nina influence demonstrates the importance of managing climate variability-the regular year-to-year shifts in climate.
There is a high potential for using seasonal forecasts to trigger preventative actions, before the onset of a meteorological event, to reduce impacts.
March 2017

9. MARCH-APRIL-MAY 2017 RAINFALL OUTLOOK