1. ENSO Outlook in spring/summer 2013 Beijing Climate Center/CMA
Rongqing Han
Hello, it's my pleasure to meet you all. I am Han Rongqing. I am from NCC of CMA
Beijing Climate Center/CMA
April 9, 2013

2. Outline Influences of Climatological background Trend
Diagnoses of zonal tropical wind
Impacts of the North Pacific SST
Models’ prediction
Discussion and Conclusion
As follows

3. 1. Influences of Climatological background Trend

4. Global SST Anomaly (0C) and Anomaly Tendency

5. Stronger Walker cell in recent years
Feb
Mar
2012
2013

6. And Stronger meridional cells
Feb
Mar
2012
2013

7. Correlation between Monthly Nino3
Correlation between Monthly Nino3.4 index & January Siberian High ( )
95%confidence
90% confidence
Correlations
95%
Concurrent year, yesteryear, following year
99%confidence
Y（-1）
Y（0）
Y（+1）
Month for Nino3.4 index

8. Negative Siberian high index in January 2013 will be favor of the warmer Nino SST in later months

9. NINO3.4 Heat Budget (from CPC)
SSTA tendency (dT/dt) in NINO3.4 region (dotted black line) was positive, but decreased in Mar 2013.
All the advection terms, as well as thermodynamical term (Qq) were positive, consistent with weakening of negative SSTA
Huang, B., Y. Xue, X. Zhang, A. Kumar, and M. J. McPhaden, 2010 : The NCEP GODAS ocean analysis of the tropical Pacific mixed layer heat budget on seasonal to interannual time scales, J. Climate., 23,
Qu: Zonal advection; Qv: Meridional advection;
Qw: Vertical entrainment; Qzz: Vertical diffusion
Qq: (Qnet - Qpen + Qcorr)/ρcph; Qnet = SW + LW + LH +SH;
Qpen: SW penetration; Qcorr: Flux correction due to relaxation to OI SST

10. Depth anomaly of 20℃ isotherm in the tropical Pacific
Time

11. 2. Diagnoses of zonal tropical wind (5S-5N)
Composite of Transition to La Nina events
Composite of Transition to El Nino events
The current
时 间

12. 2. Diagnoses of zonal tropical wind (5S-5N)
Composite of persisting on ENSO-neutral and warmer conditions
Composite of persisting on ENSO-neutral and colder conditions
The current

13. 3 Impacts of the North Pacific SST
by wind-evaporation-SST mechanism

14. 4. Models' prediction

15. Average of international model outlooks for NINO3
Average of international model outlooks for NINO dynamical models ensembled by Australia

16. Models’ prediction of IRI/CPC

17. CPC Models' prediction

18. 5. Discussion and Conclusion
Advantages for El Nino
Disadvantages for El Nino
Siberian high and tropical wind are favor of El Nino developing in the second half of 2013
Lasting recharge effect in the tropical Pacific since 2010,with two La Nina events and a neutral year, is prepared enough for next El Nino
Lasting negative phase of PDO
Stronger positive Walker and Hadley cells
Influence of negative SST anomalies in the northeastern Pacific

19. 5. Discussion and Conclusion
ENSO is most likely to turn gradually into warm and neutral conditions by following summer;
Negative SST anomalies are expect to only remain in the central tropical Pacific by summer 2013.
It would be a higher probability for El Nino event occurring in next autumn than that in last year.

20. Thanks!