1. Icing NextGen Workshop
Steve Albers, John McGinley
NOAA / ESRL / GSD / FAB
March 22-24, 2010

2. LAPS Cloud analysis
3-D Icing info
METAR
METAR
METAR

3. LAPS DA System LAPS GSI Data Data Ingest STMAS3D Model prep Ensemble
Intermediate
data files
Error
Covariance
Trans
LAPS
GSI
STMAS3D
Trans
Post proc1
Post proc2
Post proc3
Model prep
WRF-ARW
MM5
WRF-NMM
Probabilistic
Post
Processing
Ensemble
Forecast 3 3

4. Some LAPS History
Wind Analysis Developed, Radar remapping of V,Z
Cloud Analysis developed and tested in the WISP experiment (with NCAR)
TLAPS installed at 40 ITWS sites using Doppler Winds
2000s – Cloud analysis elements incorporated into RUC
STMAS surface analysis developed & tested at MIT/LL for CoSPA
STMAS 3-D analysis developed

5. Cloud Liquid Analysis

6. Cloud liquid / Temperature

7. Analyzed Cloud Liquid vs WISP Aircraft measurements
Envelope Indicates Good POD
Scatter (FAR) due to unresolved
small-scale LWC variability, otherwise good analysis of icing potential