1. Ballard Spahr 2018 National Housing Symposium
November 9, 2018
Session Four: Housing Trends Across Age Groups and Income Brackets
Edward Seiler, Ph.D.
VP, Research and Economic Analysis
National Housing & Rehabilitation Association

2. Homeownership rates bottomed out in 2016 and are ticking up
Household Income ≥ Median
65+
55-64
45-54
U.S.
U.S.
35-44
Household Income < Median
<35
White
Homeownership (HO) rates for the US bottomed out at 63.5% in 2016.
This was the level in 1994.
Peaked in 2005 at 69.0%.
In Q rates were up to 64.2%.
HO rates increase with income. Bottom quintile at approximately 35%, top at 90%.
Racial differences profound.
In the last year, rates for black homeowners dropped to 42%.
Rate was 7% higher in (White rate dropped by 3% over same period).
Interestingly, Hispanic rates have increased by over 4% in the last four years.
HO rates by age (with a focus on older Americans).
Rates for HO aged 65+ holding steady at 78% (peaked in 2011 at 81%).
Rate even higher for households 75+ at approximately 83%.
U.S.
Hispanic
Black
Source: US Census
Seiler – Ballard Spahr 2018 National Housing Symposium

3. America is aging—by 2035 one-third of households will be headed by someone aged 65 or older
57 mill
50 mill
19 mill
16 mill
Over the next 20 years, the 65+ y.o. population will grow from 48 mill to 79 mill.
This is 30 mill → 50 mill households. One-third of households in US.
In 2035, there will be 16 mill households that are 80+.
Of these 9 mill will be one-person households.
HO rates among older Americans is high.
Expect over 12 mill homeowner households age 80+ in 2035.
Seiler – Ballard Spahr 2018 National Housing Symposium
Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University

4. Seniors are not averse to holding home secured debt
Percentage of families with home secured debt has fallen since This is driven primarily by younger families.
After steep rise, households aged have stayed at an elevated 40%.
Major increase for 75+ households. In 2016 survey more than 26% held home secured debt.
Levels also up for those holding debt (see bullet on slide).
Seniors aged 75+ were four times more likely to hold home secured debt in 2016 than in 1989.
The value of the home secured debt held by seniors aged grew by 270% (in real terms) and by 140% for those aged 75+ over this period.
Source: Survey of Consumer Finances
Seiler – Ballard Spahr 2018 National Housing Symposium

5. Additional rental units are increasingly being built for higher end income renters:
This is in part due to rising development costs with land and construction costs increasing faster than inflation
Metropolitan Statistical Area
Share of Growth (by Household Income)
Under $25,000
$25,000- $49,999
$50,000-$74,999
$75,000-$99,999
$100,000 or More
United States
22%
19%
18%
13%
29%
Atlanta
23%
15%
21%
Baltimore
-5%
10%
54%
Boston 2% 7%
16%
61%
Chicago
14%
35%
Las Vegas
41%
28%
11%
Los Angeles
27% 9%
42%
New York 1%
65%
Philadelphia
30%
Pittsburgh
-60%
36%
40%
San Francisco
-4% 0%
93%
Seattle 3%
25%
51%
Washington, DC 6%
48%
Almost 30% of growth from wealthier households who could have possibly bought if they had wanted.
Represents almost 3 mm new renter households.
40% of new rentals in 2016 have rents greater than $1500/month (vs. 15% in 2001).
New rentals for < $850/month fell from 42% to 18% over the same period (all in real $).
Household Income
Source: JCHS
Seiler – Ballard Spahr 2018 National Housing Symposium

6. The availability of housing assistance continues to lag the growth of very low-income renters
Graph: In 2015 Worst Case Needs reached 8.3 mm.
Up 39% from 6.0 mm in 2005.
Between , there were an additional 582,000 cases.
The share of very low-income households receiving rental assistance fell from 28% to 25% between 2001 and 2015
Table:
Affordability is 30% rent to income (is hypothetical in that it includes vacant and occupied stock).
Availability measures the extent to which affordable rental housing units are available to renters within a particular income range.
Nationally, there are only 62 affordable and available units for every 100 VLI renters
If we include “Adequate” (i.e., factoring in the physical condition of the apartments), there are only 54 affordable and available units for every 100 VLI renters and 33 for ELI renters.
Worst Case Needs: Renters with v. low incomes who don’t receive govt housing assistance and who pay > ½ of their income for rent, live in severely inadequate conditions, or both.
Source: HUD Worst Case Needs 2017 Report to Congress.
Seiler – Ballard Spahr 2018 National Housing Symposium