Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
1
DAY 3 Winners Redux = SPC
2
DAY 4 - Forecast Verification time!
Perfect Forecast ?
3
The Dr. Titley residence
(one block from campus) 82 Y 9
4
3.5 82 Y 9 3.5
5
DAY 4 Winners
6
CLIMATOLOGY TEMPS Avg./mean: 81 Median: Range: 82 90 - 68 Std. dev. 7
Let’s talk about those temps …. CLIMATOLOGY This week … Monday: 77 Tuesday: 79 Wednesday: 71 Thursday: 82 TEMPS Avg./mean: 81 Median: Range: 82 Std. dev. 7
7
Let’s talk about the clouds = Sat imagery
Large-scale subsidence = Cloud killer 500 mb analysis = Thurs. evening Convection Conduction Buoyancy Daytime heating = Cloud maker
8
RH Calculator Relative Humidity – How close the air is to saturation
- Varies between? (X and Y %) - If in a cloud ….. RH = ? Dew Point – Absolute humidity (how much H20 v) T = 85 D = 65 RH = 51% What do we need to do to T and/or D to produce a cloud ? RH Calculator
11
500 mb analysis = Thurs. evening
12
Tornado Climatology – Whisker plots
13
Air Mass Large volume of air with certain Temp and Moisture Characteristics Continental Tropical, Maritime Tropical, Continental Polar, Maritime Polar
14
Continental Polar Maritime Polar Continental Tropical Maritime Tropical
15
Summer - Day Winter- Day T = 105 TD = 38 T = 15 TD = -5 T = 67 TD = 58
Maritime Tropical Maritime Polar Continental Tropical Continental Polar
16
Let’s talk about the rain …. Our forecast period
18
CLIMATOLOGY
19
THIS EVENING – 500MB SPC
20
500 mb map- GFS model. Valid 8 p.m. TUESDAY
Z = EDT 12z=8 am 18z=2 pm 00z=8pm 06z=?
21
TUE EVENING – SURFACE MAP
H SPC
22
WED EVENING – SURFACE MAP
H SPC
23
Tuesday Wednesday Upp 60s – upp 70s mid 70s – mid 80s SPC
24
THIS EVENING – 500MB
25
THIS EVENING – SFC map L H
26
Penn State Weather Camps
Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS – SPC - NHC – Radar - Radar - Radar E-WALL - sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 - ltg
28
DEW POINT TEMP TODAY ( 2PM – 8 PM EDT)
SPC
30
THIS EVENING – 700MB RH
31
ACCUM PRECIP – 18Z TO 00Z (2 PM – 8 PM)
32
Joe Schmo 90 Y 3.50” PA
33
WHAT IS CLIMATOLOGY ? How the weather behaves over
a long period of time. Weather – Behavior of the atmospheric over a much shorter period of time
34
NORMAL? CLIMATOLOGY 81 TEMPS Avg./mean: Median: Range: 82 90 - 68
30 year period - common 81 NORMAL? TEMPS Avg./mean: Conforming to a regular pattern; typical Median: Range: 82 Std. dev. 7 60’s = 70’s = 80’s = 90’s = 2 8 18 RAIN Avg./Mean: Range: % time: 0.15” 0-1.79” 43%
35
ASSUMES NO CHANGE ! WHAT HAPPENED … WILL CONTINUE TO HAPPEN
WHAT IS PERSISTENCE ? ASSUMES NO CHANGE ! WHAT HAPPENED … WILL CONTINUE TO HAPPEN
36
Climatology Forecast Persistence Forecast Key West Chicago CLI 6/ 6/ 6/ 6/ 6/ 6/ 6/ AVG ERR. 1.3 9 Key West Chicago 6/ 6/ 6/ 6/ 6/ 6/ 6/ AVG ERR.
37
PSU SNOWFALL
38
Penn State Weather Camps
Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS – SPC - NHC – Radar - Radar - Radar E-WALL - sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 - ltg
39
Traditional 4-Panel Model Output
SLP map + THK 500 mb 700 mb Accumulate Precip
40
Upper Level Map (i.e. 500mb) Balance between 2 forces …. Pressure Gradient + ??
41
SURFACE PRESSURE (SLP)
? ? ?
42
Geostationary Satellite
22,000 miles above equator
43
De donde son ustedes?
44
JET STREAM This Afternoon
500 mb (~18,000 feet) L H
45
JET STREAM – LATER THIS WEEK
46
Basic Forecast Guidelines - TEMP
Cause of temperature to change: Sunshine? Wind direction?
47
Location – STATE COLLEGE TEMP – PRECIP – SKY COVER
WX CAMP - Forecasting Location – STATE COLLEGE TEMP – PRECIP – SKY COVER ? 90F YES
48
Joe Smith 81 Yes 8
49
Basic Forecast Guidelines
What causes rain? Need clouds! Will any ole cloud do? Moisture Bodies of water – Moisture content of air
50
NORMAL Conforming to a standard; usual, typical, or expected.
52
Basic Forecast Guidelines
What causes temperature to change? How much sunshine? How much precipitation? Wind direction?
53
Basic Forecast Guidelines
Extrapolation= Look upstream to see what’s coming! Sat IR - Sat II - Sat VIS - Radar - sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3
54
Basic Forecast Guidelines
The “Models” What are they? Lower Res. (GFS) Higher Res. (GFS) Higher Res. (NAM) Higher Res. (HRRR) MOS - Statistical guidance
55
TROF AVIS PA TROF AVIS
56
Cyclogenesis
62
RH at 700 mb 18z WED MOS - clouds E-WALL - clouds
63
SFC Temperature Forecasting Techniques Climatology Persistence
Modified Persistence Models 2 meter temp output MOS (statistical)
64
Basic Forecast Guidelines
Climatology Forecast = averages for today Persistence Forecast = yesterday’s values Modified Persistence = Persistence + Any changes
65
Nighttime infrared satellite imagery suggests that the circulation associated with the low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better defined. However, the system is struggling to maintain organized convection near the center, and the radius of maximum winds remains large. Based on this, the system is still maintained as a potential tropical cyclone.
66
The low is moving erratically northwestward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge located over the western Atlantic and Florida. The large-scale models suggest this ridge will strengthen some during the next 36 hours or so and cause the low to turn a little more westward. This would be followed by a northward turn around the western end of the ridge and eventual recurvature into the westerlies. Overall, there has been a left shift of the track guidance models since the previous advisory. The new forecast track is also shifted left, but it is to the right of the model consensus, especially at h. Given the nature of the circulation, though, and the fact that the wind and rain hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged to not focus on the details of the track forecast.
67
The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on partial scatterometer overpasses and continuity from the previous advisory. Significant strengthening is unlikely due to strong vertical shear caused by an upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and entrainment of dry air into the system. However, the large-scale models suggest slight strengthening before landfall, and thus the intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. One change from the previous advisory is that it now appears more likely that the system would become a subtropical cyclone rather than a tropical cyclone due to the current structure of the low and interaction with the aforementioned trough. That being said, development into a tropical cyclone remains possible. The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
68
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 24.8N 90.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 20/1800Z 25.7N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 21/0600Z 26.6N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 27.5N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 28.9N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 32.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/0600Z 36.5N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST- TROP/INLAND
69
Our friends …. Storms Prediction Center
70
NAM MODEL – 4 panel map Valid at 8 a.m. (12z) YESTERDAY
71
L H H NAM MODEL – 500 mb. map Valid 8 a.m. (12z) YESTERDAY Ridge
Trough
72
NAM MODEL – SFC map Valid 8 a.m. (12z) YESTERDAY
73
NAM MODEL – SFC map Valid 8 P.M. (00z) YESTERDAY
74
LIFTED INDEX Valid 2 P.M. (18z) YESTERDAY
75
5 a.m. (09z)
76
NAM MODEL – 4 panel map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z)
77
NAM MODEL – sfc map Valid at 2 p.m. (18z)
78
NAM MODEL – 500 mb Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) L Trough axis
79
LIFTED INDEX Valid 2 P.M. (18z) TODAY
80
Penn State Weather Camps
Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I – Sat II – Sat III – Sat WV - NWS - NHC – Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3
81
NAM MODEL – Precip. map Totals (2 pm – 8 pm) (18z – 00z) GFS MODEL – Precip. map Totals (2 pm – 8 pm) (18z – 00z)
82
NAM MODEL – Precip. map Totals (2 pm – 8 pm) (18z – 00z) GFS MODEL – Precip. map Totals (2 pm – 8 pm) (18z – 00z)
83
SURFACE PRESSURE ? ? ? ? ?
84
SURFACE PRESSURE
85
Warm Sector vs. Cool Sector
88
MOS – Model Output S … Accu Friends Wx Channel Friends NWS Friends
89
Know what to expect! = Climo.
NH RH NL RL Know what to expect! = Climo.
91
Big Picture …. Then details
Soundings ? Model soundings Other fun output Meteograms
92
Big Picture …. Then details
Temps + Clouds Soundings – What are these? Model soundings Other fun output Meteograms
Similar presentations
© 2025 SlidePlayer.com. Inc.
All rights reserved.