1. 2012 Market Price Outlook ISU Northern Research Farm Meeting
Duncan, Iowa
Mar. 8, 2012
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
94.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
164.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,092
13,092
12,447
12,358
14,270
Beg. Stocks
1,624
1,673
1,708
1,128
801
Imports 14 8 28 20 15
Total Supply
13,729
14,774
14,182
13,506
15,086
Feed & Residual
5,182
5,125
4,793
4,600
5,200
Ethanol
3,709
4,591
5,021
5,000
4,950
Food, Seed, & Other
1,316
1,370
1,407
1,405
1,420
Exports
1,849
1,980
1,835
1,700
1,900
Total Use
12,056
13,066
13,055
12,705
13,470
Ending Stocks
1,616
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.06
3.55
5.18
6.20
5.00
Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.7
77.5
77.4
75.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
39.7
44.0
43.5
41.5
43.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
2,967
3,359
3,329
3,056
3,250
Beg. Stocks
205
138
151
215
275
Imports 13 15 14
Total Supply
3,185
3,512
3,495
3,286
3,540
Crush
1,662
1,752
1,648
1,615
1,660
Seed & Residual
106
110
130
120
126
Exports
1,279
1,499
1,501
1,275
1,550
Total Use
3,047
3,361
3,280
3,011
3,335
Ending Stocks
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.97
9.59
11.30
11.70
11.50
Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections 3 3

4. 2011 Corn Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

5. 2011 Soybean Yields
Source: USDA-NASS

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. Corn vs. Wheat
Source: CME Group, 3/7/2012

9. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

10. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

11. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Change of Export Pace

14. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)
Crop
Year
Billion Bushels
2011
4.64
2012
4.86
2013
5.07
2014
5.29 14 14

15. Corn Grind for Ethanol
Source: DOE-EIA

16. Ethanol Blending Advantage

17. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption
7.6 bil. gal.
7.4 bil. gal.
Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

18. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price
Cost

19. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price
Cost

20. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price
Cost

21. Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price
Cost

22. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

23. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

24. Principal Crop Area
Source: USDA-NASS

25. States with Room to Grow
Number is the difference in planted acres between 2008 and 2011

26. Iowa Crop Margins

27. 2012 Crop Prices

29. Current Corn Futures
5.96
5.42
5.31
5.22
Source: CME Group, 3/7/2012

30. Current Soybean Futures
12.41
12.10
11.75
11.53
Source: CME Group, 3/7/2012

31. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond
General economic conditions
Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices
US job recovery, European financial concerns
Supply/demand concerns
Worries about dry conditions in South America and in U.S.
Biofuel growth and energy demand
Corn has the upper hand in the acreage competition
Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?
2011/12: USDA: Corn $6.20; Soy $11.70
Futures (as of 3/7/12): Corn $5.96; Soy $12.10
2012/13:
Futures (as of 3/7/12): Corn $5.42; Soy $12.41

32. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: